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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards


LomondSnowstorm

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

@LomondSnowstorm I notice you tend to go with the 300m wet bulb freezing level. I always thought 200m was the rough indicator for snow at sea level? Happy to stand corrected on that!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
2 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

@LomondSnowstorm I notice you tend to go with the 300m wet bulb freezing level. I always thought 200m was the rough indicator for snow at sea level? Happy to stand corrected on that!

I'd probably go with 200m for sea level too actually, I've seen 200-300m quoted too depending on the situation but it probably comes from living in places around 50-100m altitude where 300m is generally fine for snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl

We are right on the edge of the snow here.  Delivery driver says it is raining in Ellon c. 6 miles away.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbernauld
  • Location: Cumbernauld

I’m getting a little nervous that we won’t see much in the central belt any chart I’ve seen dosent deliver much shower or streamer to the area I know there are a nightmare to forecast 

 

has any one got any info what the potential is ? Particularly tomorrow to Wednesday 

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
14 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

The Scandi high on Thursday/Friday seems to be increasing in strength run by run, the GFS 6Z makes one of the closer attempts I've seen at extending and, with a few tweaks, potentially even intensifying the easterly.

This is what I'd say is the key point to keeping the easterly going:

image.thumb.png.ec53a70948e9c5f5274188f7ae9983b0.png

There's a lot going right here, with a negatively tilted trough and some signs that the monster low in the Atlantic is trying to disrupt, with that little secondary low forming to its east. With a slightly stronger Genoa low that sits in place a bit longer, and the disruption a little bit earlier/further southeast, we would see a linkup, with the secondary low sliding under, the main low staying out in the Atlantic (as seems likely now anyway) and this flow continuing (there's some pretty nice looking convective snow potential through Wednesday and into Thursday btw, just as good as anything early in the week):

image.thumb.png.d0e1bcca5d02b8ffc229f7a12dca3981.png

What we get following it isn't Atlantic driven by any means, and the cold air actually comes back in from the southeast after this too, but it really really wouldn't take much for it to turn into something epic:

image.thumb.png.1947bd4a95230d266da423e091ed0edb.pngimage.thumb.png.921095c153a954d9cc5d89206fb69d44.png

 

What are your thoughts about the next 72hrs? Well potential

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