Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Ravelin]

I was just going to post about that @Quinach. Some of the warnings don't actually overlap time wise, but appear on the same day. For example the yellow rain stops at 15:00 Sat, when the Yellow Snow begins. I was particularly amused by this set up, rain to the East but the Amber for snow sort of isolated (usually they have a surrounding yellow area.

Temp down to 0.4/0.1C now and snowing, but not lying on cleared areas, which are just wet. Just for fun I measured the depth of snow sitting on one of the garden walls....30cm. Not sure I've ever seen the depth of snow that is sat on the roof of the house since we moved into this place either (hope it doesn't avalanche as that's what ripped off most of the gutters in the house in Kemnay in 2010). Just a pity it's so wet otherwise we'd have some decent drifting as the wind is pretty gusty at times.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ravelin

[blitzen]

3.1c/2.7c/1010mb/E/15mph/rain still Swearing AGAINing ! Aw c.mon!! that was mild!! " Just cause" and all that!!  with today's total (so far) sitting at 13.4mm.

Haven't been down the garden yet, but can see that it is flooded.   Nothing like the depths that we had to cope with last August though.   The pumping chamber lid appears to have floated off somewhere, so we will have to go and retrieve that!   So, thankfully, no snorkel, wet suit and flippers required this time round!   (Waders maybe)

Will post some pics later.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Blitzen

[Quinach]

Met Office still updating the forecast I see, we are now exclusively under a rain warning until 15:00 tomorrow, so the cold is delayed yet again.

Another big win for the Norwegian Met Office as that is in line with their forecast from a few days ago.

[aggy]

Met office having a mare with their warnings 

 

can anyone remember how the warnings in the days prior looked for the BFTE in 2018 ? 

[TinyTim]

1 minute ago, Quinach said:

Met Office still updating the forecast I see, we are now exclusively under a rain warning until 15:00 tomorrow, so the cold is delayed yet again.

Another big win for the Norwegian Met Office as that is in line with their forecast from a few days ago.

Yep, I think that's put the nail in the coffin for our chances here I reckon.  Obviously subject to change but if we see a few cm at this point I'll be happy - a shedload just doesn't look like it's happening unless you live on a huge hill

Tim

[Hawesy]

46mm of rainfall now at Leuchars in the last few days. Given the monthly average for February is 42mm that’s pretty significant. The rainfall warning suggests at least another 20mm and possibly more to come. 

In terms of my -10 850s watch nothing has changed in the last 24 hours with GFS still forecasting its arrival at Leuchars for 6pm tomorrow. 

[blitzen]

Ever get the feeling that Met Office warnings have become somewhat reactive as opposed to proactive?

I am just going to ignore, because it will change back once it starts snowing again!!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Blitzen

[shuggee]

51 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Dry and calm here but husband been up the A7 and north of Gala the road is murder. Water pouring down from the higher ground and over the road.

I suspect you're in line for a burying @mardatha. Hope you have your mushy peas stocked-up.

[howham]

Sinking feeling here.  We had half decent snow Wednesday night into Thursday but since then it's been the wrong side of marginal.  Sleet/wet snow falling at times but basically a dud now as things stand.

[Gogoslo]

Wouldn’t get too despondent folks.  The really cold air doesn’t arrive until tomorrow night. Once it does and beds in then I think there will be a few surprises..  the updates on the met office warnings just goes to show how difficult it is to forecast at the moment.  I’m sure there will be upgrades / downgrades / winners and losers over the next week.  Will be good fun to watch tho.  

[Glaswegianblizzard]

24 minutes ago, aggy said:

Met office having a mare with their warnings 

 

can anyone remember how the warnings in the days prior looked for the BFTE in 2018 ? 

I think if I remember right they were very clear that it was going to be generally the east coast and central belt. Closer to the time the red warning was applied when it became apparent just how much snow would fall. EDIT: I think someone also posted in here that they had privileged info about incoming historic snowfall, that was about 5 days before.
 

This all actually feels a bit more like a mini 2009/2010 when it was much more nowcasting. Looking back I don’t recall much in the way of predicted low temps not warnings affecting the Glasgow area, but once the snow fell the temperatures plummeted. I recall one day in early Dec 2010 being about -18 in Glasgow during the mid morning, after heavy snow the day before. Not suggesting we’ll get the same but I think we’ll get a bit more than suggested by the current forecasted temps and precipitation.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Glaswegianblizzard

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The rain will likely turn to snow in quite a few areas through tomorrow with the colder air coming in and some first ideas coming out though I would expect lots of surprises as models won’t pick up all the features in this setup Sunday looks like the persistent lightish snow again I would expect heavier stuff in there as the North Sea starts cranking up and then the flow looks like being much more unstable for Monday and Tuesday  the totals have looked consistent considering the models tend not to get them correct most of the time I think they could be UNDERestimating at the minute my thoughts for here are  

hope for at least 5 cm, believe I could get 10 cm, given the setup isn’t too dissimilar to the BFTE and 2010 and if the showers pile in similar wouldn’t be crazy to think close to a foot is possible 

[Stormeh]

Red warning out for Monday

 

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If only

[Quinach]

Seeing this report of flooding on Deeside...

Went to check the river levels - and Scotland is a complete desert as all the stations are offline...

I am really surprised the media have not covered the SEPA cyberattack in more detail. How can a major organization like that still be offline weeks later - where were the system backups etc?

As things stand, going to have to rely on this site..

Farson Digital Watercams

WWW.FARSONDIGITALWATERCAMS.COM

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Farson Digital Watercams is the first high-definition webcam network of UK rivers, with images updated every 10 seconds. Whether you care about local fishing, or just beautiful scenery, this website will bring you the...

 

[edo]

Don't get despondent folks by how bad the weather is now, or because the weather warning does not have you being under threat of heavy snow.

The models still agree late Saturday uppers and dewpoints and 950 temps all mean snow and then the instability of flow Mon and Tue will result in the showers being frequent but where they land yet to be seen.

Its a nowcast on how much snow you get for many of you not a question of marginality so chins up folks.

You can see people already posting dropping dewpoints, we all have snow chances late Saturday to Thursday and then who knows at this point.

Oh and remember @Kirkcaldy Weathersaid there will be thundersnow 

[TinyTim]

1 minute ago, edo said:

Don't get despondent folks by how bad the weather is now, or because the weather warning does not have you being under threat of heavy snow.

The models still agree late Saturday uppers and dewpoints and 950 temps all mean snow and then the instability of flow Mon and Tue will result in the showers being frequent but where they land yet to be seen.

Its a nowcast on how much snow you get for many of you not a question of marginality so chins up folks.

You can see people already posting dropping dewpoints, we all have snow chances late Saturday to Thursday and then who knows at this point.

Oh and remember @Kirkcaldy Weathersaid there will be thundersnow 

Thank you Edo  Not meaning to be a downer, it's just we've come so close to something really decent many times over the past 10 or so years (since 2010), and most times it just hasn't delivered.  With the way things have been up to now I was starting to expect this to be the same way, but lets keep fingers crossed and keep smiling

Tim

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 04/02/2021 at 11:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

we will more likely be talking about the kind that could have thundersnow potential 

@edo no promises were made would expect one of us will report it between Sunday, Monday, Tuesday 

[LomondSnowstorm]

It is only yellow for now but a pretty good yellow warning all things considered, extending across the central belt through to Wednesday lunchtime and '2-5cm daily accumulations widely, up to 10-15cm' in some areas. 

[Norrance]

Well. Pouring rain and strong winds at around 3C. Where have I seen that before this week?

Last nights (temporary) slight rise in temps have caused more problems on the roads. This time flooding in areas where the snow is banked up at the roadsides. Higher up still snowing away as in second pic at around 350 mtrs asl. . The A93 is somewhere in the third picture.

[jellybaby1969]

temp now up to 5c but rain has thankfully eased

[blitzen]

3.0c/2.6c/15mm./still raining.

 

[Sanserit]

48 minutes ago, Quinach said:

Seeing this report of flooding on Deeside...

 

 

Holy crap, that's just the other side of the Dee from me! I knew it was bad but not having been outdoors as I'm still not allowed to drive, I didn't realise just how bad it was!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Seriously heavy snaw mixed with rain here at the moment.

Enough to put down a slushy layer

EDIT. Not sure if this has been posted.

Trapped drivers rescued amid heavy snowfalls

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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About 20 vehicles became stuck in snow on the A835 in the Highlands following heavy snow on Thursday.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[lorenzo]

Top right.. we see you Beastie..

 

[Stormeh]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Top right.. we see you Beastie..

 

Looks like plenty of showers and streamers between Norway and Denmark?