Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Mandy Langlands]

14 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Frequent but light showers was only mentioned on the current warning for Monday.

It is a strange one - looking at the updated Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian and Borders...scattered snow showers?

 

Updated Central, Tayside and Fife sounds more promising - mention of sleet though. (Surely only reserved for @Hawesy and @Kirkcaldy Weather 

As others have said all about nowcasting! These updates are absolute cannon fodder...sometimes! 

This covers my area too

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some impressive stuff from the 12Zs again. UKMO:

Not much point posting the uppers since uniformly -10 to -12C throughout, with the -12C coming closest around +120 (I'd think Tuesday on that would be the snowiest day for most of us with streamers developing through the central belt but Monday also looks pretty decent for that too).

GFS:

Certainly can't complain but if I did have a criticism it's that it could do with bringing the next low, the one to the southwest at +120, a but further north and east, if we could get that we'd have a bit more of a northerly tilt and probably would sustain the thing longer too as well as increasing our snow chances.

The GEM:

This is more what I'm meaning, and the +12C line gets to us by +120 too, again I'd think pretty snowy.

All in all a good set of runs so far, and better than yesterday's 12Zs certainly.

 

[Quinach]

Temperature has dropped back to 1.3c so we have a vile mix of rain/sleet/snow - the frozen component appearing in the heavier pulses of precipitation.

Wind has noticeably picked up so all of the above slams straight into your face; ended up putting on a bandana to cover the face just now to be able to work outside, much to the kids amusement.

Precipitation is pretty constant, just wish it was a degree colder as it would then be a proper blizzard here.  Not a time to be driving further west at altitude.

Daily Brambling report  - looks completely at home in the snow, Scandinavian upbringing for you...

 

Feeders mobbed as ever...

[Zerouali lives]

Anyone know a good website where I can get the latest temperatures and due points for Aberdeen?

[shuggee]

Just like old times I've had a jump into the 12z GFS charts. I've chosen Midnight Sunday (ie overnight Sat/Sun) to show how we are likely to be either going to bed smiling or staying-up lamppost watching:

Precipitation and 850s -10 to -12C with snow across Caithness and Black Isle. In a line east from Elgin to Glasgow and across the Borders.

Thicknesses just keep getting thicker. In fact the 528 dam passes over us headed south and over the border 6am Sat morning.

And 0C isotherm. WIdely at sea level. Maybe 100m at this stge across Central Belt/coasts and to southwest, but with those showers.....

Better build-up than Xmas 2020.

[Benvironment]

Really appreciate all the model updates on here from all you learn-ed folk. Always such interesting reading

2C here and just about managing to stay on the snowy side of sleet when the heavy stuff comes through. Not sure how long it'll stay that way though. Tonight looks wet!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Benvironment

[MildCarlilse]

Looks like the Leadhills area at 400m are witnessing slight thawing...

[Polar Side]

56 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Hard to imagine an incoming cold spell as I'm looking out the window at the snow slowly retreating up the hill. Was at 200m this morning but now probably 250m. A hideous, damp day but thankfully, so far at least, we're avoiding the really heavy rain. 

I had a walk up the hills this afternoon and the snow was deep but soft and wet. It was still snowing at around 1000 ft but quite wet. 
 

[SW Saltire]

Went to check recent rainfall levels but I see SEPA is down.

Been CONSTANT precipitation here since Monday (Snow to sleet and today is just rain). 
4c and moderate rain, was torrential at 7am this morning.

I look forward to a blast of some proper cold air even if it’s unlikely the showers will reach here

[Cheggers]

Go for a meeting at Tunnock's and I miss 4 pages..... 

Biblical rain on my drive back along m73 and m80

[Penicuikblizzard]

30 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Some impressive stuff from the 12Zs again. UKMO:

Not much point posting the uppers since uniformly -10 to -12C throughout, with the -12C coming closest around +120 (I'd think Tuesday on that would be the snowiest day for most of us with streamers developing through the central belt but Monday also looks pretty decent for that too).

GFS:

Certainly can't complain but if I did have a criticism it's that it could do with bringing the next low, the one to the southwest at +120, a but further north and east, if we could get that we'd have a bit more of a northerly tilt and probably would sustain the thing longer too as well as increasing our snow chances.

The GEM:

This is more what I'm meaning, and the +12C line gets to us by +120 too, again I'd think pretty snowy.

All in all a good set of runs so far, and better than yesterday's 12Zs certainly.

 

Seems to be upgrading for Scotland with each run

[howham]

1.6C and a bit of a soggy mess.  Still sleet/ wet snow falling on and off.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Starting to see signs of snow pushing further west on the ICON through Monday:

We don't have the ICON archives but I did find this from the 2018 thread for the first Tuesday of the easterly (27th February), which had considerably less day to day uncertainty in the build up:

 

The reality was the initial front sweeping in from the east (10am to midday):

It wasn't actually terrible in terms of capturing what happened but certainly worth bearing in mind that features can, and will, crop up at short notice.

[doctormog]

56 minutes ago, Zerouali lives said:

Anyone know a good website where I can get the latest temperatures and due points for Aberdeen?

If you want some of the amateur ones from within the city (mine included) you could have a look at:

/Assets/Images/logo-global.png

Met Office WOW - Home Page

WOW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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The UK Met Office Weather Observation Website (WOW). WOW allows anyone to submit their own weather data, anywhere in the world.

 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I don’t think it’s stopped raining in Glasgow all day. Not even briefly.

[Hawesy]

@Mr Frost Me and @Kirkcaldy Weather will take our chances with those -10 to -12c 850s 

Model out put still looking good and nice to see GFS bring forward the magic -10 850s timing (Saturday at 3pm on the 12z - for Leuchars).

Absolutely foul outside. Driving rain and strong easterly wind, 4.6c. Officially mingin’ 

[blitzen]

4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Just watched the latest MetO forecast, on YouTube, Blitzen... It must be a wee bit draughty around the bealachs up there?

Em bealachs?... Nope, I'm NOT going to ask!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Blitzen

[Eagle Eye]

Enjoy the snow

[Sceptical]

Braemar is getting hammered - STV news just now.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Latest ECM a more ENE/E flow which is perfect. 

[Swave Snow]

3 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Braemar is getting hammered - STV news just now.

Great them Aviemore will too lol

[blitzen]

22 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I don’t think it’s stopped raining in Glasgow all day. Not even briefly.

I feel your pain...Same here!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

8 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

Enjoy the snow

Heavy BFTE 2018 vibes here where Glasgow got buried and much of Ayrshire wondered what the fuss was about.

[Sanserit]

1 hour ago, Zerouali lives said:

Anyone know a good website where I can get the latest temperatures and due points for Aberdeen?

As well as the other suggestions, you could also look at Wunderground or Weathercloud websites for all the local weather personal stations.

[Penicuikblizzard]

Latest ECM for Sun/Mon looking bitter and Snowy The showers should push well west through the central belt with the ENE flow