Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Gogoslo]

It isn’t lying but snowing in Balmedie 

[Penicuikblizzard]

Sleety pish here at Straiton

Cannot believe we still have to endure another couple of days of this

[jon_d1983]

6 minutes ago, Gogoslo said:

It isn’t lying but snowing in Balmedie 

Just mental hail here 

[LomondSnowstorm]

16 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

What were the 500mb temps with the late November / start of December 2010 snow streamers

I had to resort to using the ESRL NOAA plotter for that one

Just around -40C, converting from Kelvin, so again fairly impressive.

It's quite funny how poorly the ICON did at modelling the precipitation in 2018 even at close range:

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[101_North]

19 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Sleety pish here at Straiton

Cannot believe we still have to endure another couple of days of this

It's turned to snow again here. Bit of slush on the grass and car but I'm really just craving an end to this! Been a brutal few days! 

Edit: Settling on all surfaces now

Edited February 3, 2021 by 101_North

[Sanserit]

A friend sent this into our WhatsApp group chat earlier

https://www.facebook.com/100009008093826/posts/2732378623739047/?sfnsn=scwspwa

[Sanserit]

1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

Did somebody say something about SNAW?? 

He lives!!!

Welcome back, better late than never 

[Hairy Celt]

10 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I know SEPA take their lead from Met-O weather warnings but I can't help but wonder why there are no flood alerts out given the volume of rain which is falling and is due to fall on ground below 200m in the next 2 days.

SEPA have been the victim of a corporate hack recently and a lot of their online services are down.

[Benvironment]

44 minutes ago, Big Innes Madori said:

A decent covering here of aboot 2" although it has been Snawing here most of the day and still is falling and blowing around in the wind! The covering however is definitely different on various types of surfaces

Driving to work this morning and on return this evening and while going through the nearby village of Saline, the top of the village and main street was White with Snaw, while about a 1/4 of a mile down the main street at the bottom of the village it was wet with no Snaw to be seen

Big Innes 

Never ceases to amaze me how quickly conditions change over such short distances. It's the same here. Bucketing down for days and snow piling up here on the hill, but down in Leslie there wasn't anything. That's what lures folk up here with their summer tyres

[blitzen]

46 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I know SEPA take their lead from Met-O weather warnings but I can't help but wonder why there are no flood alerts out given the volume of rain which is falling and is due to fall on ground below 200m in the next 2 days.

Erm...I hope I am reading that wrong as it's difficult to make out, but it looks like 88mm over my area?  Nearly 3 1/2ins"?  

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Blitzen

[asjmcguire]

There are cms of slush on all the pavements. Not white, pavement coloured. it's horrible stuff to walk through and it's very very slippy.

I'm actually quite annoyed that it's basically been snowing for like 3 days here, and hen those other days when it was snowing too. If they had all actually been snow, rather than this stuff - we would have multiple feet of snow by now.

[Sunny Leith]

25 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I had to resort to using the ESRL NOAA plotter for that one

Just around -40C, converting from Kelvin, so again fairly impressive.

It's quite funny how poorly the ICON did at modelling the precipitation in 2018 even at close range:

 

One of the lessons I've learned over the years is how often an easterly of the type to come (we all hope!) is underplayed by the forecasters, in particular the metoffice. You can be getting quite close to the event and the talk might be of coastal flurries, wintry showers or whatever. In general the recipe of around -10C uppers and north sea convection in an ENE flow works pretty well and repeatably here most of the time, but only when they look out the window will some of them fall into line by nowcasting! Anyhoo, we're not quite there yet, but looking good 

 

[Northernlights]

22 minutes ago, Sanserit said:

A friend sent this into our WhatsApp group chat earlier

https://www.facebook.com/100009008093826/posts/2732378623739047/?sfnsn=scwspwa

I don"t know why they are bothering as few hours of wind  today will very quickly fill it in again. Once watched a video of the Cairngorm ski road in a gale with falling and drifting snow and you"d swear it was timelapse as it just filled in behind the snowblower. within minutes.

[Hairy Celt]

6 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

There are cms of slush on all the pavements. Not white, pavement coloured. it's horrible stuff to walk through and it's very very slippy.

I'm actually quite annoyed that it's basically been snowing for like 3 days here, and hen those other days when it was snowing too. If they had all actually been snow, rather than this stuff - we would have multiple feet of snow by now.

Welcome to AGW.

[Sanserit]

11 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

SEPA have been the victim of a corporate hack recently and a lot of their online services are down.

It's a major hack, they're still trying to work out exactly what data has been compromised. We've had to problems getting forms completed and sent in to them for waste exemptions for clients so I think flood warnings will be down the list of priorities while they get their security beefed up. Potential for a huge fine coming their way too.

[Frosty the Snowman]

1 minute ago, Sanserit said:

It's a major hack, they're still trying to work out exactly what data has been compromised. We've had to problems getting forms completed and sent in to them for waste exemptions for clients so I think flood warnings will be down the list of priorities while they get their security beefed up. Potential for a huge fine coming their way too.

Why in god's name does an organisation like them not have a comprehensive back up they can plug and play? 

[Northernlights]

Just a small point too in the middle of this prolonged spell of cold for us that because we are so near the boundary of air masses the local forecasts on here change every time they are updated for instance the latest one has no precipitation from tomorrow till Monday after predicting heavy snow on Friday.

[JamesM]

22 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

SEPA have been the victim of a corporate hack recently and a lot of their online services are down.

SEPA are barely functioning and this is since 24th December. SEPA have no data from their own rainfall and river level sites so presumably that impacts on the ability to issue accurate flood warnings. 
 

I deal with their land use planning side of things for work and they are unable to respond to anything at all. Could be months before they are back to any sort of normality.

[Geedawg]

Another evening with the snow shovel out! I sbould do it for a job this winter!! 

[blitzen]

23 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Euro4 usually overestimates but yeah

So.. if I  perform the baseline rain-to-snow conversion:  The baseline ratio of rain to snow is 1 inch  equals 10 inches of snow. For example, to calculate the snowfall equivalent of 3 inches of rain, multiply 3 by 10 to obtain 30 inches of snow as the baseline conversion.   So I could be looking at 35" of snow if it fell as snow?

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

Just been looking at NW medium range snow maps for early next week and see there are some very narrow and well-defined east-west bands of snow showing.  If they come off, a few places really would get buried.

[Highest EK]

Newbie poster and weather enthusiast. Snowing in highest parts of East Kilbride (200+M) for 2 days - periods like yesterday afternoon and this evening when the temp dipped a bit and the snow built up. Still coming down and around 3-4". Hopefully more folk will see the snaw soon!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Brief summary of the current outlook 

Cold air that supports snowfall -8 850 hpa and 528dam and below move south west across Scotland as we go through Saturday afternoon and night. 

Then the flow will gradually go from ESE > E bringing in -10 850 hpa with -12 near the east coast and -14 in the North Sea, that will get the North Sea firing up currently looking like 3 FULL DAYS!! of showers / streamers aplenty Sunday,Monday,Tuesday that is as far is I am looking currently some signs of a deeper low in the Atlantic wanting to come in after but that’s far into uncertain modelling. 
 

Hope all of us can enjoy snowy fun and one of the main joys of an easterly me and @Hawesy are first in line for the showers  

[Cheggers]

Sorry @Hairy Celt Snaw!!!!

Sepa - ransomware....... 

[Frosty the Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

So.. if  we perform the baseline rain-to-snow conversion:  The baseline ratio of rain to snow is 1 inch  equals 10 inches of snow. For example, to calculate the snowfall equivalent of 3 inches of rain, multiply 3 by 10 to obtain 30 inches of snow as the baseline conversion.   So I could be looking at 35" of snow if it fell as snow?

 

That's what would fall from the sky, between non-settling light stuff and the snow condensing itself (can't remember the name for reduction of snow accumulation not caused by melting) your lying snow totals will be quite a bit lower.