Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[pdiddy]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Best of luck @LomondSnowstorm with the exam and @Blitzen with your dog. 

Those are barbed troughs

Thanks - what are they?

I was going from this:

[Kayemill]

10 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Weather warnings being updated, hard to keep up with them all! The Scotland wide (mostly) warning has been brought forward to start at 6pm tomorrow which is a good sign. Lets see what is next!

 

Edit:

 

Amber for the North / North East with up to 50cm...

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Going by recent experiences. This is the only thing I'm seeing in the warning for here.

"Whilst snow will pose the main hazard, milder air may affect the south of the warning area at first, bringing the risk of heavy rain here."

MetO warnings really are becoming completely pointless.

[Ravelin]

I'm just back in from clearing the driveway and paths and my earlier estimate of the overnight snow was on the low side, there was 1-2cm on the driveway. Showers still occasionally reaching here, definitely of snow, and with strong gusts of wind at times blowing around the lying snow its wild looking for brief spells.

As for the warnings, as expected.....

That's from 00:00 Friday through to 18:00 on Saturday. It'd be nice to see it go up a notch on the likelihood scale though.

[Hawesy]

It’s a complex situation, isn’t it?

By my reading (and I stand to be corrected by those more knowledgeable!) it turns colder tonight with a better chance of snow inland even at modest elevation through the central belt.

Then tomorrow milder air works its way northwards with GFS taking the wet bulb 200m freezing level all the way to Inverness.

Friday the cold starts to work it’s way back south in line with the amber warning.

For me here in the East Neuk the magic -10 850s arrive on Saturday at 6pm (current GFS timing). I’ll be unlikely to see anything before then. 

[Ross B]

Just now, Kayemill said:

Going by recent experiences. This is the only thing I'm seeing in the warning for here.

"Whilst snow will pose the main hazard, milder air may affect the south of the warning area at first, bringing the risk of heavy rain here."

MetO warnings really are becoming completely pointless.

Yeah, like most of the events here this winter its just been a degree or so too warm. I can see us struggling to get any decent totals if the organised precip is mostly sleet and then the heavy showers may not make it this far west from the easterly. (although they normally do, just not sure how heavy/direction)  As usual, expect nothing and hope we get a decent fall! 

[Serac]

Are we downplaying what appears to be rapidly approaching us this weekend for fear of jinxing it ? 
 

I can no longer contain the excitement ......

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Thanks - what are they?

I was going from this:

The convergence lines that I’m aware of are more common when looking for thunderstorms when the winds converge and that helps to develop the cumulonimbus clouds 

Convergence lines

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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A convergence line is a band of cloud that remains fairly stationary and can produce large amounts of rain across a relatively small area.

 

being honest I’m not 100% sure what the barbs added onto the troughs mean presumably it’s the really cold air and mega instability, they were also present during the BFTE 

[JoeShmoe]

5 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

For me here in the East Neuk the magic -10 850s arrive on Saturday at 6pm (current GFS timing). I’ll be unlikely to see anything before then. 

Same here I suspect .. 

[Ross B]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

The big issue for us in the earlier timeframe of the warning is the snow parameters - can see why they mention heavy rain for Southern parts.

 

That is the milder air right there unfortunately.

 

Yeah, only a small correction south is required for more of us to get snow which is still possible even at this late stage...

Edited February 3, 2021 by Ross B

[CameronWS]

34 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Heavy rain and 40mph + gusts this morning - not had many days of that this Winter so can’t complain.

Browsing the models the theme of rain/sleet/snow below roughly 100/150 meters continues through the week away from North of the Central belt - hopefully later Thursday into Friday we see more widespread snowfall to low levels! Even here! 

This sums up today and tomorrow at the moment for me!

 

Very heavy snowfall further North Friday into Saturday!
 

Friday 00:00

 

06:00

 

Saturday 21:00

Sunday 15:00

 

Monday 03:00

 

All subject to change of course but from IMBY perspective I don’t like the old becoming drier along the West Coast through the weekend chat! 

I know it’s uncertain but do you think there’s a chance of a decent Forth-Clyde streamer? Yet to see a single bit of snow lying yet so this is the best chance!

Hoping everyone enjoys the upcoming spell!

[mountain shadow]

A9 Drumochter camera looks buried!

[101_North]

No warnings North of the border after Sunday? I'm hoping that's due to uncertainty at the minute! 

[Cheggers]

Starting to turn to snaw here in Whins of Milton. Still very wet but nicer to look at rather than pishy rain. 

[Mr Frost]

1 minute ago, 101_North said:

No warnings North of the border after Sunday? I'm hoping that's due to uncertainty at the minute! 

I think they are sick of issuing warnings for Scotland. 

Here is the UKMO chart for next Tuesday:

 

Looking at that...more warnings to come! At some stage! 

I am now banning myself from looking at any models/charts for the rest of the week! Hopefully that way I am pleasantly surprised.  (Still be browsing this thread and looking at charts others post of course as that does not count )

[Penicuikblizzard]

North of the Forth estuary is going to be buried with showers moving well inland
Not so good for Edinburgh and Lothians as the streamers will run to the North of us, as I said in a earlier post we will need some disturbances in the flow.

[Zerouali lives]

Snowing in Aberdeen city now - no chance of it lying at this altitude though as it's very wet and not cold enough - probably will be above 150m a few miles further away from the coast though...

Edited February 3, 2021 by Zerouali lives

[Gogoslo]

Have seen a bit of snow , hail and rain this morning.  The beeb has this corner as rain for thurs / Friday now and snow further inland on higher ground.  May change over the weekend so the coast sees a covering..

[Hairy Celt]

No ppn of any description on the Black Isle, just that nagging easterly wind that cuts through all your layers. And no sun today, just featureless stratus.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

38 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Is it never simple when it comes to snowfall in Winter is it!? 

Same as thunderstorms in Summer! 

I am honestly just going to sit back and see what actually becomes of all this - so much going on with it all everyday this week and into next week! Second half of the weekend into Monday/Tuesday has the best looking snow parameters for sea level North to South.

Should not be anymore of this marginal/above 150/200 meters nonsense around these parts. 

@CameronWS Keep an eye on Sunday, Monday or even Tuesday - models look good at the moment but slightest tweaks run to run make a huge difference.

You seen any snakes?

[Norrance]

Quite stormy here overnight with bursts of heavy rain and sleet at times rattling of the windows in a very gusty wind. Still some sleety light rain at 2.4C. Looks like more of the same for the next couple of days though just a touch milder on Friday as  slightly warmer air comes round in the flow from the South East. From then on hopefully snow all the way. By then I wonder what the high level routes will be like. Here is the A93 this morning on the Perthshire approach and a pic from earlier on the A826 also in Highland Perthshire.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Norrance

[Hairy Celt]

3 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

You seen any snakes?

WTF??

[Zerouali lives]

Just now, Norrance said:

Quite stormy here overnight with bursts of heavy rain and sleet at times rattling of the windows in a very gusty wind. Still some sleety light rain at 2.4C. Looks like more of the same for the next couple of days though just a touch milder on Friday as  slightly warmer air comes round in the flow from the South East. From then on hopefully snow all the way. By then I wonder what the high level routes will be like. Here is the A93 this morning on the Perthshire approach and a pic from earlier on the A827 also in Highland Perthshire.

Yeah been keeping an eye on the Glenshee and Braemar snowgate webcams - can't wait to see how buried they'll be by middle of next week!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

BBC oan the meto amber warning for the highlands.

Recent photaes from the Cawder estate.

A wee bit mair snaw than is in the gairden.

EDIT been snawin away here for a day or so now but struggling tae get anywhere. Couple of cm's of wettish stuff on top of auld snaw at best.

Met Office "amber" snow warning for parts of Scotland

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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An amber alert is issued by the Met Office for "widespread, persistent and heavy" snow on Friday and Saturday.

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Glaswegianblizzard]

7 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

WTF??

 

[Mr Frost]

12 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

You seen any snakes?

Nah not here - Greenock did though! 

I seen numerous social media posts last night of snake sightings in Inverkip, Kilmalcolm, Gourock and Wemyss Bay! I think it has become a bit of a running joke. 

@Hairy Celt someones pet snake escaped I think! 

 

Cops confirm 14ft snake captured in Greenock amid multiple sightings of constrictor-type reptiles - Daily Record

WWW.GOOGLE.CO.UK

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Images on social media circulating today appear to show the huge creatures on the ground by hi-viz clad workers in Greenock

Only one was ever found - rest was hoax sightings.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Mr Frost