Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Eastern Scotland WX]

2 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Shower incoming here now, looks like approximately 1/-1C so I think most likely snow...

Very interesting charts in the longer term, with the easterly coming into sight and some frontal snow potential on Tuesday(please god will one of them hit properly/not melt after two seconds/end up at my aunt in Birmingham's instead). Far too much uncertainty on the 'big' possible easterly next week to have much faith, beyond a likely easterly flow following Tuesday's low. That could be a pretty decent couple of days in and of itself though:

 

Hopefully the north sea stays on its best behaviour. 

[Ruzzi]

A couple of showers making through to here, very decent snow, instantly lying. 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Very light snow here but it is settling - we'll see if much else comes this way in the next 15 or so hours before the flow cuts off.

The NMM does suggest not totally negligible amounts possible for Fife through to maybe Cumbernauld overnight:

Whereas the UKV generally has much patchier precipitation and further south (no precipitation accumulation and hard to really post something illustrative since the individual showers are tiny!).

ICON also relatively low on totals but more clustered around the Forth:

 

That distribution seems pretty reasonable to me given the wind direction and current radar but I think the totals are being underestimated a wee bit - we've already seen 3-4mm precipitation since 6pm to the southeast of Edinburgh (albeit the mesoscale models often don't show the initial precipitation very well anyway):

 

[JoeShmoe]

GFS 18z has a 24 hour snow event from Tuesday afternoon in southern and central Scotland as the front stalls ... still be rain here no doubt

[Eastern Scotland WX]

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

GFS 18z has a 24 hour snow event from Tuesday afternoon in southern and central Scotland as the front stalls ... still be rain here no doubt

Not liking the ESE flow with that Front on Tuesday...

[shuggee]

ESE is good apparently

But in all seriousness its a product of the tilt of the fronts. Nothing to worry about. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS 18z op really close to getting those Baltic 850 temps in just needs that high bit further north west and the pacific linkup being attempted again, it’s hard to explain but usually when you see that curve of the lower pressure like that it stops the pattern collapsing I often look for that. 

[Ravelin]

Currently -1/-1.6C here and the sheet of wet snow in the garden has morphed into concrete already. 

[101_North]

The weather can't decide what to do tonight. One decent snow shower earlier but just sleet since!

[aggy]

Just had a peek outside , ground wet so. Showers are making it through 

[Cheggers]

Can confirm lying snaw here, about 2mm but better than pishy rain

[aggy]

Everything white now in five mins 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

More examples of that curving of lower pressure  too soon to be discussing in any detail but the signal is there for a mega cold pool to the east  ?

[NorthernRab]

Out of the blue Moray Firth streamer happening here, snowing heavily here with a good covering!

[Ruzzi]

Well this was not expected.... The odd shower has progressed quite quickly into many showers, good 1cm covering on the road, bit more on the grass etc and a good looking radar..... If this keeps up then I can see me waking up to an inch or so 

 

[edo]

After two days of thaw and the football pitch becoming some kind of lake like I have never seen everything is now dusted white again and snow is blowing around that is not wet and it feels very crisp out there, just a dusting but a surprise dusting and another day we have seen snow fall. A severe frost before the dusting so hip breaking conditions out there. 

[Benvironment]

Looks like we've had a 2cm top up  

[Sceptical]

Cold start with a fresh dusting of snow overnight. Pretty much the general theme of winter so far. 

[aggy]

A surprise few cms last night , radar looks brilliant dundee Perth areas for lots of showers . The snow last night was very dry , when te dog came back in brushed the snow off him and he was bone dry 

Edited January 30, 2021 by aggy

[101_North]

1 hour ago, edo said:

After two days of thaw and the football pitch becoming some kind of lake like I have never seen everything is now dusted white again and snow is blowing around that is not wet and it feels very crisp out there, just a dusting but a surprise dusting and another day we have seen snow fall. A severe frost before the dusting so hip breaking conditions out there. 

Wow! Tables have turned  

Just frosty here. One decent snow shower last night onto wet ground and then back to relentless sleet! Feels back to normal winter service here

[Mandy Langlands]

We have the first lying snow of this winter here in Carnoustie

[101_North]

Now....what my wife described as frost is actually a light dusting of snow! You'd have thought that after putting up with me for so long she'd have the detail nailed

Edited January 30, 2021 by 101_North

[Allyw12]

Nice surprise this morning.

we have a couple of cm so far not sure how long we’ll be in the line of fire, it is nice to have some decent snow

[blitzen]

Pleasant surprise for me this morning as well to discover I had picked up a shower or two overnight!   Very light dusting only,  but nice to see.

Currently 0.3c/-0.3c/ENE.

Latest ECM is being described as a fiasco this morning!   Picked up this from the MOD thread a few minutes ago: (contributed by Nick Sussex)

 

 "Atrocious lack of continuity from the ECM which seems to be pulling out a different NH solution on every run

However both the GEM and UKMO now support its latest change in terms of overall pattern at day 6. Here the models haven’t removed cold chances but can’t seem to settle on one evolution ."

 

Nae surprise there then!

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Blitzen

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Keep an eye through the weekend on overnight temperatures - chance of a -18C or even lower! 

 

Our current official minimum temperature for Winter so far is -12.3C in Loch Glascarnoch! That should be easily beaten. 

Tuesday still showing that snowfall risk - would expect at the very least (if this track/details stays similar) for the Met Office to include higher parts of Central, SW, S and SE in any new/updated warnings. 
 

06:00

 

09:00

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

Current regional sitting on the fence:

Much prefer the Yorkshire and Humber latest regional: 

 

Latest UKMO charts for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday look very decent.

 

It does look as though next week (Tuesday to Friday at least) has the potential for significant snowfall/sleet or rain. 

Wednesday 21:00

 

So the final month of Meteorological Winter starts on a wintry/cold note and still no end in sight for the foreseeable future. 

Have a good weekend everyone!