Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[LomondSnowstorm]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Speaking of great forecasts ...here are the latest Met Office videos for the two current snow warnings.

 

What could possibly go wrong!? 

Certainly doesn't seem to be a lack of precipitation on that midnight screenshot (although quite how you end up with that sliver of rain from Perth through to Crianlarich is anyone's guess )

 

I was tempted to start a summary now but I think I'll wait until at least the GFS and UKMO are out and hope there's at least something approaching a consensus.

I've noticed a bit of a dip in temperatures around Clydesdale in the last hour or so, I guess, where precipitation is heaviest. That potentially bodes well for our chances of snow later on.

The ICON, which seems to have a reasonable grip on current temperatures at least, has it fairly widely as snowfall to low levels by midnight:

Moreso inland though, and for the east coast I think dewpoints will just be a bit too high:

Temperatures generally around 1C for pretty much all the central belt though so I'd think it has a shot of settling, albeit it does move away in the early hours.

The UKV is relatively similar on this actually, dewpoints close to 0C for the central belt and continued fairly intense precipitation around midnight, so certainly something to watch out for.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Certainly doesn't seem to be a lack of precipitation on that midnight screenshot (although quite how you end up with that sliver of rain from Perth through to Crianlarich is anyone's guess )

 

I was tempted to start a summary now but I think I'll wait until at least the GFS and UKMO are out and hope there's at least something approaching a consensus.

I've noticed a bit of a dip in temperatures around Clydesdale in the last hour or so, I guess, where precipitation is heaviest. That potentially bodes well for our chances of snow later on.

The ICON, which seems to have a reasonable grip on current temperatures at least, has it fairly widely as snowfall to low levels by midnight:

Moreso inland though, and for the east coast I think dewpoints will just be a bit too high:

Temperatures generally around 1C for pretty much all the central belt though so I'd think it has a shot of settling, albeit it does move away in the early hours.

The UKV is relatively similar on this actually, dewpoints close to 0C for the central belt and continued fairly intense precipitation around midnight, so certainly something to watch out for.

To Note , Icon is currently to warm in some areas Tonight and also Icon looks quite incredible tomorrow night.

[JamesM]

24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Speaking of great forecasts ...here are the latest Met Office videos for the two current snow warnings.

 

What could possibly go wrong!? 

Need that lot to correct a bit to the north and west. Worst outcome for me will be conditions being right for snow but the precipitation not quite making it! 

 

Current rain band seems a touch further north than expected. I wasn’t expecting to catch the heavier rain. 

Edited January 19, 2021 by JamesM

[Geedawg]

Snow is now falling here in forth! Been raining all afternoon. Hopfully it continies

[JamesM]

7 minutes ago, Geedawg said:

Snow is now falling here in forth! Been raining all afternoon. Hopfully it continies

Turning already on higher ground. I knew people in Forth many years ago. I seem to recall it being well placed for snow. 

[Jamboperth11]

Perth going to be blanketed in snow. I can feel it in my gut. Sledges ooooot!! 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Just now, Jamboperth11 said:

Perth going to be blanketed in snow. I can feel it in my gut. Sledges ooooot!! 

DON’T Jinx it please as i live near Perth. 

[Geedawg]

3 minutes ago, JamesM said:

Turning already on higher ground. I knew people in Forth many years ago. I seem to recall it being well placed for snow. 

Yes we get some really good snow up here. 280m up roughtly. Snow is now starting to settle!

[Geedawg]

3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

You live at a great height there! 270 meters!? Must be a good place to be in Winter!

Just looking at the Met Office/UKV for tonight.

21:00

 

You would expect places like East Kilbride to see some decent snowfall later - @Stormeh are you working tonight!? 

Nothing can be ruled out after the last couple of weeks! Especially low levels in the Glasgow area! 

Exciting stuff yet again - Winter keeps on giving! 

Yes we have some great snow here! Snow is lying on grass now. No i am on furlough so i can sit back and watch it without worry. But normaly it is a nightmare haha.

[Stormeh]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

You would expect places like East Kilbride to see some decent snowfall later - @Stormeh are you working tonight!? 

Yes I have just arrived and we have sleet here and it looks interesting for later..

Could be an interesting drive home at midnight
 

[grifter]

I'm currently working in Lanark area, started snowing here too!

[Geedawg]

6 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

You live at a great height there! 270 meters!? Must be a good place to be in Winter!

Just looking at the Met Office/UKV for tonight.

21:00

 

You would expect places like East Kilbride to see some decent snowfall later - @Stormeh are you working tonight!? 

Nothing can be ruled out after the last couple of weeks! Especially low levels in the Glasgow area! 

Exciting stuff yet again - Winter keeps on giving! 

Yes we have some great snow here! Snow is lying on grass now. No i am on furlough so i can sit back and watch it without worry. But normaly it is a nightmare haha.

[Ross B]

Pretty good updated meto text forecast...

 

Strathclyde weather forecast

Tuesday 19 Jan - Saturday 23 Jan

Headline:

Cloudy with occasional rain, turning to snow at times.

This Evening and Tonight:

North Argyll staying mainly dry, a slight frost. Elsewhere cloudy with outbreaks of rain across Kintyre Ayrshire and Lanarkshire extending north into the Glasgow Area, and turning to snow on the hills. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Wednesday:

Cloudy with occasional rain and hill snow, the snow penetrating to some lower ground in the afternoon and evening with significant falls on higher ground, though Argyll drier until overnight. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Some sleet and snow pushing south on Thursday followed by brighter weather in afternoon with scattered showers. Wintry showers on Friday and Saturday.

[Geedawg]

Keep this going and it could be an interesting night. Hope it doesnt turn to rain with the rain band being further north than expected

[mistyqueen]

XC weather tells me I'll have 19cm of snaw on Sunday morning at 6am. How I laughed! 

[shuggee]

Sleet here - the BBQ test always works (it's black metal so can see the ice splatter). If it's snowy in Lanark/Forth it won't be long now...

[Michael Kaii]

hi

im new to this forum i was wondering whats the chances of snow in bo'ness for this week ahead?

[Geedawg]

8 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Sleet here - the BBQ test always works (it's black metal so can see the ice splatter). If it's snowy in Lanark/Forth it won't be long now...

Lying properly now in forth

[Penicuikblizzard]

Sleet falling at Fairmilehead now,, rain is turning already

[Polar Side]

21 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Sleet falling at Fairmilehead now,, rain is turning already

Sleet here now too.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

The iPhone weather app ‘model’ is now pushing snow back to the early hours of the morning for the city. Harrumph.

[Benvironment]

Our largest remaining snow patch in the garden this evening.

Cover has waxed & waned since it first fell on 29th December, retreating to just a few small patches of ice for a day or two, but it was soon topped up and this is nonetheless our 22nd consecutive day with SOMETHING icy on the ground outside. Quite remarkable for this location in recent years

[EastLothianSnow]

Been enjoying reading this great forum for a few years now without posting but thought I ought to get involved. 

Currently 3 degrees and rain here, we are only at 50m so not expecting any snow here over the next few days given my lack of elevation. Would be more than happy with a couple of cm’s, but fully expect to be looking out at rain/sleet while places like Cousland a few miles up the road are digging themselves out!  

[metallikat34]

1 hour ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Certainly doesn't seem to be a lack of precipitation on that midnight screenshot (although quite how you end up with that sliver of rain from Perth through to Crianlarich is anyone's guess )

 

I was tempted to start a summary now but I think I'll wait until at least the GFS and UKMO are out and hope there's at least something approaching a consensus.

I've noticed a bit of a dip in temperatures around Clydesdale in the last hour or so, I guess, where precipitation is heaviest. That potentially bodes well for our chances of snow later on.

The ICON, which seems to have a reasonable grip on current temperatures at least, has it fairly widely as snowfall to low levels by midnight:

Moreso inland though, and for the east coast I think dewpoints will just be a bit too high:

Temperatures generally around 1C for pretty much all the central belt though so I'd think it has a shot of settling, albeit it does move away in the early hours.

The UKV is relatively similar on this actually, dewpoints close to 0C for the central belt and continued fairly intense precipitation around midnight, so certainly something to watch out for.

Watching the GFS come in now. I mean, the run to run snowfall output has been quite high and very consistent. But really, how much of this is snow and how much is just being represented as snow by the precipitation type masking? I don't know. But the GFS is likely way too bullish on this being all snow, which suggests some errors in its thermal profiles. 

 

And then of course there is the position of the low pressure system as it moves from the midlands to the coast early Thursday morning. Since it will be a deepening low developing along a frontal system, I don't trust any of these models with regards to low pressure position. 

[Ross B]

Sleet falling here too, promising for later...