Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Glaswegianblizzard]

57 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

The further outlook from the MetO starting to sound very decent 

Could be better though. Maybe they’re just teasing.

[Penicuikblizzard]

35 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Yep. It won't be me with the tears as I know what to expect here, 20 years of net weather experience on these

No tears here either other than high ground the Edinburgh and surrounding areas will most definitely be cold rain ️ 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Fully expect cold rain here too, any faking snow will be a nice winter bonus. Please no more freezing rain though!

[101_North]

No tears here either. Lived here 13yrs and could count on less than one hand the number of times we get much in these situations. Currently -3c, quite a bit colder than the forecast 0c. 

[Ruzzi]

I reckon we're still needing a good backeth westeth yet, fingers crossed for a further correction in the morning. Starting to get the lingering slushy feeling

[howham]

Will be liquid snow here...

[Sanserit]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Tricky setup for tomorrow I was waiting for consistent signals before commenting and although my gut feeling says I might be let down by dewpoints again here the runs keep it as all snow for Fife and decent accumulations across the region usual case of high ground fairing best but it’s one of those where some will get a surprise and others will be rainy but here’s what the trend is

As the front moves in like the recent snowfalls, temperatures will be near 0, the 850hpa temperature being only around -1/-2 and no 528 dam also makes me wary but maybe it will be evaporative cooling causing the snow tbh it’s that tricky I’m not sure but looks like it will be freezing rain then as it moves further east gradually turning to snow (could be back to rain on the back edge) 

Well I’m not expecting anything on Deeside tomorrow...that way if we do get some white stuff falling, it’ll be a bonus.

Aberdeenshire Permagloom for the best part of today but there was some welcome sunshine early doors. High of 3.4c, overnight low of -0.7c, currently 2.1c with DP of -1.2c.

[Jamboperth11]

Hoping Perth gets some snow, Enough for sledging I wonder? 

[TinyTim]

1 hour ago, edo said:

Yeah I'm a positive person and it's not reverse psychology... Unless an upgrade on how low the dewpoints go i can't see anything decent here. 

Tim you are cursed.... Move away please

lol Yep So sorry my friend  You never know... one of these days we've got to hit the jackpot... surely?? Maybe?? 

[Hawesy]

A lot of realism, I mean pessimism, around this evening.  Mind you, more chance of Donald Trump appearing at my door with a bouquet of flowers than of me seeing snow from this. 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Hawesy

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Hawesy said:

A lot of realism, I mean pessimism, around this evening.  Mind you, more chance of Donald Trump appearing at my door with a bouquet of flowers than of me seeing snow from this. 

 

You never know... You might be in for a stupendously bigliest surprise?

[Northernlights]

Snow sparkled all day even with a maximum temperature  of 2c Afternoon photo of The Firth with small snow showers to the north Finally got.  to grips with the phone to post this 

[Mr Frost]

Evening all

3C here today, plenty of sunshine and frost/ice hanging on in the shade.
Sadly all the snow has gone from the hills in the distance after the blowtorch/rain yesterday!

 

@CatchMyDrift @Kirkcaldy Weather great posts.

Predicted state of play for 15:00 tomorrow - higher ground snowfall with god knows what to low levels. (rain/freezing rain/sleet? 

Met Office/UKV

 

Fast forward to midnight and here is the (just for fun) lying snow depth chart.

 

Issues for the West (other low level parts of Scotland) already discussed in previous posts and by others - few charts below for same timeframe.

Thickness (dam)

 

Dewpoint temperature (C)

 

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850-1000hpa thickness (m)

 

850HPA temp and sea level pressure

 

Temperature 

It is such a marginal event for many - higher ground the better! 

It would only take the slightest tweaks here and there to deliver significant snowfall to modest levels! Especially Perthshire, parts of Stirlingshire, Tayside, Fife, Borders and North Lanarkshire.

North of the Central belt in general could do very well. 

On the flip side it could be a total washout for everyone below 200 meters - no fun in discussing that in detail though! 

We have already seen this Winter deliver decent depths of snowfall...that was not even forecast for many areas. 
More of the same tomorrow/Thursday please! 

Bring on the snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain! 

All the best!

Edited January 12, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Eagle Eye]

Is there going to be heavy snow and Arctic Air

If we compare this with 1987 as a Beast from the East Year and what the Charts were like before. 

1987 has a high into Southern England with in between in Scotland before it gets squashed and by day eight The Beast is most definilty strong. 

Almost exactly the same at the moment predicted. 

 

[Ruzzi]

Yet another westward correction, latest fax charts.... If it continues like this then I don't know why I panicked about slush

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye, nice ECM showing a big greenie high again; stairtin tae edge intae reliable timeframes.

No many mild members in the GFS far oot intae FI. Some stonkingly cauld yins.

Morn intae Thursday looks fun.

Touch and go, but at 175 m, should be pink at fort SS!

[Norrance]

Lovely frosty and sunny winters day here today.

May start tomorrow evening here with a bit of wet snow or sleet but as the wind starts coming in off the sea I fear it will just be heavy cold rain for most of the time. Inland with only a little altitude (+100mtrs asl perhaps) could be a pretty good event especially just North of the central belt. Maybe a little higher further South?

[Eastern Scotland WX]

4 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Lovely frosty and sunny winters day here today.

May start tomorrow evening here with a bit of wet snow or sleet but as the wind starts coming in off the sea I fear it will just be heavy cold rain for most of the time. Inland with only a little altitude (+100mtrs asl perhaps) could be a pretty good event especially just North of the central belt. Maybe a little higher further South?

will have a good detail look at the models later when i do my Snow watch forecast. I see some snow falling in the central belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh, possibly a couple of cm i believe. Though the best risk is areas more towards Fife and areas to the N and W where 2-5cm could accumulate to near sea level inland, and up to around 15cm above 150-200m. Somewhere Like Auchterarder could see 5-10cm quite easily i believe. 

[aggy]

I’m in Cumbernauld now so already this winter I’ve had more snow than the last ten years in Ayrshire 

obviously desperate for more tomorrow and Thursday 

[metallikat34]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all

3C here today, plenty of sunshine and frost/ice hanging on in the shade.
Sadly all the snow has gone from the hills in the distance after the blowtorch/rain yesterday!

 

@CatchMyDrift @Kirkcaldy Weather great posts.

Predicted state of play for 15:00 tomorrow - higher ground snowfall with god knows what to low levels. (rain/freezing rain/sleet? 

Met Office/UKV

 

Fast forward to midnight and here is the (just for fun) lying snow depth chart.

 

Issues for the West (other low level parts of Scotland) already discussed in previous posts and by others - few charts below for same timeframe.

Thickness (dam)

 

Dewpoint temperature (C)

 

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850-1000hpa thickness (m)

 

850HPA temp and sea level pressure

 

Temperature 

It is such a marginal event for many - higher ground the better! 

It would only take the slightest tweaks here and there to deliver significant snowfall to modest levels! Especially Perthshire, parts of Stirlingshire, Tayside, Fife, Borders and North Lanarkshire.

North of the Central belt in general could do very well. 

On the flip side it could be a total washout for everyone below 200 meters - no fun in discussing that in detail though! 

We have already seen this Winter deliver decent depths of snowfall...that was not even forecast for many areas. 
More of the same tomorrow/Thursday please! 

Bring on the snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain! 

All the best!

Yuck on those 850 temps tomorrow afternoon!

[JamesM]

A Facebook memory reminds me I had a bit of thundersnow this time 4 years ago, and plenty snow for a snowman. 

Nice and frosty at the moment and the car is reading -2. 

Met office video forecast suggests snow restricted to the Highlands and Pennines only. Also looks much further east. Fax chart suggests it is further west. Confused? Yup?

Still expect nothing but rain here. 

[snowy owl]

Definitely looks like rain in East Lothian! Maybe a few flakes mixed in .

[Hairy Celt]

I feel out of synch with everyone suddenly, having enjoyed a lovely snowy, sunny walk with camera this morning then been out in the frosty and very icy village this afternoon - yet all the talk is of tomorrow's potential! 

Anyway, for the avoidance of prosecution, I went no more than 5 miles from home and all on foot.

 

   I tried to get some more interesting pictures of cows but they weren't having it. Kept running away!  And as for the sheep, less said the better.

 

  

 

Rain tomorrow night.

 

 

[chemikal]

1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:

Yet another westward correction, latest fax charts.... If it continues like this then I don't know why I panicked about slush

I probably say this every year. Outside of all the major predicted snowfall events here I prefer the surprise ones. Probably because the Met Office warnings never quite deliver. I’ve no idea what will happen tomorrow but I would feel more confident if they removed the warning for here!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

4 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Fully expect cold rain here too, any faking snow will be a nice winter bonus. Please no more freezing rain though!

Meant falling snow. Don’t know how the fake that happened.