Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Mair Snaw]

5 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Where is it?

Upper knockando near Aberlour 197m asl..

[Hairy Celt]

27 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Upper knockando near Aberlour 197m asl..

Really nice around there. Interesting stretch of the Spey, some good woodland for walking and cycling, Co-op in Aberlour...

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Very tropical 5C here this morning - dare I say it feels quite mild/warm compared to the last two weeks! 

Would be great to see some reports/pictures later from any of our Shetland Islands folk - forecast for frequent/heavy snow showers.

On the mainland we have the rainfall to snowfall potential event tomorrow - Highlands and higher parts of Aberdeenshire most at risk and then into the evening/night maybe a bit of sleet/snowfall for the usual guys @101_North @Penicuikblizzard @Polar Side 

Monday 14:00

 

16:00

22:00

 

Looking further ahead into Wednesday...the wintry mix/snowfall is now trending to that old higher ground/hills nonsense! 

Hopefully when the day arrives we can get an hour or two of snowfall to fairly low ground (wet bulb/dewpoints not looking great for parts of the West) - colder 850HPA temperatures are just off the East coast on these current charts.

All subject to change at this range.

06:00

15:00

 

 

All the best to you all.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Eagle Eye]

Scotland Yesterday

Spain Yesterday

[Northernlights]

Ground frost this morning has dried everything up a bit still coverings of frozen snow in all the usual shaded areas. Currently dull dry and 2c

[Serac]

Snow and ice has vanished here

 

However (some) models entertaining this morning 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Serac

[scott125]

Snow as melted rapidly during the night here in EK.

[Hairy Celt]

We have a balmy 3C this morning... with lots of high cloud. 

[Norrance]

Rain washed away most of the little but of snow we had but has left the ice as well as a bit more as a ground frost came in this morning. 2.3C now after a max of 4.0C last night and a min of 1.0C around 9AM. An interesting read @CatchMyDrift

[Puffy MacCloud]

There are only two kinds of weather that I really can't abide; one is extreme heat, especially if it's also clammy, which I find physically challenging and the second is a thaw, which is simply depressing. The switch from crisp, clean and white landscapes to damp, dirty and grey outlooks just sucks the life out of everything. Well nearly everything. The birds in my garden that until yesterday were having to queue up for a go on the feeders are now all over the grass and borders, feasting on all the wee subterranean critters that have come up for air. Nevertheless I find it hard to persuade myself to get out of bed in a thaw and so this morning I didn't. There's nothing like a whole morning in bed to brighten up one's day.

Temperature 5.9deg.C up from 2.5deg.C at 05:24, humidity 96%, wind between 2 and 12mph southerly, pressure 1022.1hPa falling slowly, there's been 2.8mm of rain since midnight, 4.2mm in the last 24 hours and there is 8/8 cloud cover that is thick enough to make it really pretty dull.

[shuggee]

Absolutely right @Puffy MacCloud - but you forgot the added bonuses of fog shrouding high ground and the exposed base ice as slippy as cubes from the freezer to navigate. It's treacherous. Currently 3.7°C.

[Stormeh]

Some nice looking charts appearing in the models, I hope it continues later on the 12z. 

@Kirkcaldy Weather showing his excitement in the model thread which is good to see

[Eagle Eye]

Afternoon Everybody

Talk is about late Next Week for the Chance of Arctic Air coming down. 

11 January- 16 January Chance

Towards the East perhaps we do Have Some Edges Of Colder Upper Air so perhaps a light laying. Of course the chances that this Air is cold is minimal due To The Thickness Of Dam And The Fact that Many A Time The Uppers have been much warmer than expected so very few flakes possible. 

Around a 15% Of Chance That The Uppers Are Cold Enough That Snow is possible. 

16 january - 23 January

Early on the Uppers aren't Cold Enough however later on with more uncertainty there is a Chance that the expected not so cold Uppers could change and they don't need to chance much due to the thickness of the dam. 

23 January Onwards

Late January is when the Chance Starts Soaring Due to Arctic Air Settling In but if Course There Is A chance that due to the unlikely was that these charts could be opposite but I find that there is certainty over cold Uppers and a low thickness dam. 

A Met Office type update. 

January 11 - January 16

Snow will, most likely be confined to hills and higher spaces as other areas get above average temperatures. 

January 16 - January 23

Certainty is pretty low over this period but there is a chance of deep snow in higher areas. 

January 23 Onwards

Certianty is low over this period however there is likely to be settling of snow and in some place heavy snow which could cause disruption. 

I'm sure the Mods will go over anything that I've missed out. 

In conclusion to a relatively long post. 

January 11 - January 16

Snow Chance

15% depending on where you are

January 16 - January 23

Snow Chance

55% Depending on where you are

January 23 Onwards

65% Depending on where you are but certainty is low. 

Thanks

Xander

 

[mistyqueen]

Horrible, horrible day. Grey and dreich. Forced myself out for a walk then the rain decided to appear so that shortened the walk considerably. Last weeks' weather is but a memory now. Hopefully late January may produce a bit more in the way of wintriness. Fingers crossed, but as usual I won't build my hopes up! Currently 6.4c with lightish winds. 

[blitzen]

A'noon. (such as it is!)

Dreich and damp just about covers it. 5.1c/4.8c/1015/SW 13mph.

Hopefully though, much to look forward to in the not too distant future.

 

 

[Puffy MacCloud]

Good afternoon. I've just taken a wander down to the pond. I didn't used to have a pond (like up to yesterday) but I do now. Quite a large one, as it happens. No fish or frogs yet but time will tell. 

Temperature 6.1deg.C, humidity 96%, wind 3 to 6mph southerly, pressure 1020.5hPa dropping like a stone, 4.6mm of rain so far today and cloud cover remains 8/8.

[edo]

@Sheldon Cooperim thinking this may be for a different thread, i think we have far higher percentages up here  

i also like you giving a 65% chance but certainty low.... surely if certainty is low the chance is less.... tbf certainty is low on much at the moment but all the evidence points to cold its just how cold and how snowy.

 

[Eagle Eye]

16 minutes ago, edo said:

@Sheldon Cooperim thinking this may be for a different thread, i think we have far higher percentages up here  

i also like you giving a 65% chance but certainty low.... surely if certainty is low the chance is less.... tbf certainty is low on much at the moment but all the evidence points to cold its just how cold and how snowy.

 

Sorry I didn't have long to research untill the next charts came out considering I live in Kent but a lot of my family live in Scotland

[101_North]

I know it's a bit milder today but I still didn't expect this to fly into the house!

[Hairy Celt]

4 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I know it's a bit milder today but I still didn't expect this to fly into the house!

Disturbed from its hibernation hidey hole. Find it somewhere to go back to sleep quickly or its goose is cooked.

[101_North]

Just now, Hairy Celt said:

Disturbed from its hibernation hidey hole. Find it somewhere to go back to sleep quickly or its goose is cooked.

Thought as much! It didn't seem too happy flying about! It flew into the garage and under an old table. Seemed happy enough to settle down again. The garage is open so often it'll get out in the Spring!!

[Penicuikblizzard]

Now this chart would bring complete snow chaos to the East of Scotland
Yes please

[Stormeh]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Now this chart would bring complete snow chaos to the East of Scotland
Yes please

Yep something definitely brewing, just need these charts to start appearing in the reliable time frame

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Are we talking something similar to Feb/March 2018 here? That easterly created a streamer that buried Glasgow, especially areas just north of the city.

EDIT: looking at the chart posted above Stormeh, I’m guessing it might be? I recall colleagues from Kilmarnock and elsewhere in Ayrshire being shocked when they saw how much snow had fallen in Glasgow.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Glaswegianblizzard

[Stormeh]

6 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Are we talking something similar to Feb/March 2018 here? That easterly created a streamer that buried Glasgow, especially areas just north of the city.

EDIT: looking at the chart posted above Stormeh, I’m guessing it might be? I recall colleagues from Kilmarnock and elsewhere in Ayrshire being shocked when they saw how much snow had fallen in Glasgow.

The west would certainly get plenty of snow showers pushing through if those charts verified. It's a long way off but it is starting to look like we could be plunged into the cold again soon with plenty of snow potential for many of us