Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, edo said:

from what i can tell, models a bit all over the place and we remain cold throughout but no deep cold or major snowstorms but still potential and latest gfs actually upgrades uppers on tuesday with things looking less marginal.....

Great summary there mate - absolutely spot on. 

Basically Monday lunchtime through to Wednesday morning looks good for sleet/snow showers on and off (add in overnight into tomorrow morning for rain/sleet/graupel) - rainfall in the earlier period of this but 850HPA temperatures of -8 (-9 isn’t far away) start appearing for Eastern Scotland through Monday evening well into Tuesday (see chart below for example...-8 also makes it through to Central parts before this timeframe) - as we all know many more snow parameters to take into consideration...it is a start though! (Higher ground the better of course)

Monday to Friday is cold throughout - wouldn’t look much further than that at the moment as the models/charts look a bit messy.

Latest UKV predicted temperature snapshots for the week ahead - as ever subject to change.

Monday 12:00

 

Tuesday 12:00

 

Wednesday 12:00

 

Thursday 12:00

 

Friday could be the coldest day of the week!

03:00 you can see those really cold 850HPA temperatures (-11) arriving from the N/NNE alongside snow showers.

 

12:00 temperature 

 

Impressive/prolonged/below average cold spell we are currently in and it continues for the foreseeable.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Penicuikblizzard]

59 minutes ago, edo said:

nice @101_North maybe a good sign

@Kayemillmy dream is to see the upsicle make it all the way to the tap

 

MT is in slitting wrist mode, some absolute knicker wetters in there

 

from what i can tell, models a bit all over the place and we remain cold throughout but no deep cold or major snowstorms but still potential and latest gfs actually upgrades uppers on tuesday with things looking less marginal.....

There is just no patience in the MT, I made a comment earlier that in February 2018 there were lots of changes by the models in the run up to the BFTE,,also  zonal days in the first couple of weeks of the month. I said to have a look at the charts for Feb 2018 as it was a interesting evolution into the BFTE also quite a quick turnaround into bitter cold east winds    

[101_North]

Temp down to freezing here and icing up quickly! The last shower of hail/graupel stuck instantly! Going to be hellish icy tomorrow morning!!!

[Ravelin]

17 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

There is just no patience in the MT,

Boom to bust all the time and the 'sane' voices get ignored. It's less than 24hrs ago since the place was buzzing as the GFS 18z rolled out an awesome run. 

I suppose I can look at the models with 3 decent snowfalls already under my belt this winter. Since most of the forum lives in the south of England thier experience is very different, but they don't complain during the summer when they are basking in warmth and we ain't. 

[Ross B]

We just had a heavy sleet/rain shower and the street is now an ice rink. It looks like frozen slush with tyre tracks on the road but there was no snow! 

[101_North]

Serious hail shower here! Place is white in seconds!

Temp down to 0.2c / -0.5c

Edited January 3, 2021 by 101_North

[snowlessayr]

37 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

There is just no patience in the MT, I made a comment earlier that in February 2018 there were lots of changes by the models in the run up to the BFTE,,also  zonal days in the first couple of weeks of the month. I said to have a look at the charts for Feb 2018 as it was a interesting evolution into the BFTE also quite a quick turnaround into bitter cold east winds    

It is extremely frustrating to look at, it is bipolar in that thread. It doesn't matter how many times we have a SSW people still expect models to be absolute nailed on when in fact that is very rarely ever the case and even less so in a SSW.

It is just full of I told you so, and mild zonal always wins comments. Well of course it will eventually as it is our default pattern, people become very argumentive over something which at the end of the day we have no control over it is baffling. 

It could be -10 outside and snow galore and we would still have folk complaining that it isn't lasting months. 

Sometimes you would think we live in Svalbard and not the UK with the type of comments in that thread. It is very rare to get seriously low uppers in the UK so if they always expect that then they are nearly always going to be disappointed

With the look of the models a slight warm up of some degree looks likely, but with the troposphere and strat situation it will probably be short lived. We know how volatile models can be in this situation so expect a lot of changes in the near future.

Definitely going to try and ignore the model thread for a while, not good for my health looking at the comments sometimes

Edited January 3, 2021 by snowlessayr

[JamesM]

Direct hit from a shower and it’s.....rain! Freezing instantly though.

[Klippie]

Just back from the shops...Aldi's car park is like a skating rink as Joe said above really dangerous the main roads are patchy black ice, instead of shiny wet roads the tell tale is they look matt with no water noise from the tyres...if your going out be very careful as the ungritted side roads are lethal.

As I got in my motor there was a sleety shower it was thick enough for the wipers to make some slush so it slowly getting there towards snow...fingers crossed.

Current temperature is +1.6deg/C but the ground temperature is a black ice making -4.6deg/C. 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

20 minutes ago, Ross B said:

We just had a heavy sleet/rain shower and the street is now an ice rink. It looks like frozen slush with tyre tracks on the road but there was no snow! 

Same here SE of Perth with temperature near 0C and raining/sleeting and its 0.2c currently with -0.1c dp and more showers on there way. 

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, Kayemill said:

I like to think he made it all the way on NYE but between then and NYD he went on a major bender and set him back a bit.  We’ll see how the temps go in the coming days. 
 

Still snow on the ground here. First night son hasn’t asked to go out Sledging for a good few nights. Thank god my ass and hips are not good. 
 

Seen a post on here the other day of a boy and girl twins first snow outing which just reminded me of us. I dare say some of you will remember the photos. Mine are now almost 16. Boy likes sledging, girl not so much probably on the first day then the novelty wears off. 
 

Time flies. 

I saw the same photo and was reminded of chilblains!

[Stormeh]

22 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Boom to bust all the time and the 'sane' voices get ignored. It's less than 24hrs ago since the place was buzzing as the GFS 18z rolled out an awesome run. 

I suppose I can look at the models with 3 decent snowfalls already under my belt this winter. Since most of the forum lives in the south of England thier experience is very different, but they don't complain during the summer when they are basking in warmth and we ain't. 

I try to stay away from the model thread. I am no expert in the models but I always find the Scottish thread the best for finding out what we have in store here. It’s great that we have some knowledgeable members who are in Scotland. They share their thoughts and forecasts in this thread for the members who don’t understand the models as much but have a big interest in the weather like myself

[Cheggers]

Moon rise over the Weeg 2021

Edited January 3, 2021 by Cheggers

[101_North]

A fair amount of hail has fallen here now!

Edited January 3, 2021 by 101_North

[edo]

I can confirm ridiculous freezing rain as I stand in the take away having basically crawled the 10m from my car to the shop ........ Lethal

[Penicuikblizzard]

Just been outside to check my car and it’s literally frozen solid, frozen rain is a bizarre phenomenon

[blitzen]

Yep! it really is lethal out there.   Hubby went out to put the car in the garage and suddenly became airborne.  Neither of us realizing what we thought was wet was in fact black ice.  I know he's okay though because he's not limping.   (He usually limps even if he has toothache!)

Yep! ...this about covers it!  1.4c/0.7/1029.5mb

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Blitzen

[Ross B]

Another heavy shower of freezing rain/sleet here, not sure I've seen anything as bad as this before given the time of day 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Ross B

[Eastern Scotland WX]

10 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Another heavy shower of freezing rain/sleet here, not sure I've seen anything as bad as this before given the time of day 

found the culprit to why there is no snow due to such " good parameters " , a warmer boundary layer just above the surface is allowing snowflakes to melt and allow sleet and freezing rain, this will likely be the case up till early Tuesday morning. 

[Sanserit]

Dreading having to go out to my hospital appointment tomorrow given I do a poor impression of Bambi on ice indoors, never mind on black ice! Hopefully ARI will have gritted their car park as darling son isn't the most patient of folk 

0.4c / -0.5c / 1036.91hPa

I gave up trying to follow the MT and have stuck to reading what the knowledgeable folk post in here instead. Easier to understand too 

[Hairy Celt]

We went out for a local walk today under a blue sky - MetO have had us under fog all day and continuing overnight but it's a nearly clear sky still.  Plenty of ice in some obvious north-facing and exposed places and even a little snow left only a mile or so inland.

Little wonder covid is spreading, even here in the Highlands.  Some folk seem to have exhausted their supply of patience, common sense and decency and are making little attempt to keep 2m apart or wear masks, clean hands, except when they're pretty well forced to.

[Mair Snaw]

I cant even get freezing rain..

[Spindrift2017]

Same here as others are reporting - both the thin snow covering and patches of bare ground have been given a hazardous glazed covering of ice from rain falling on the frozen ground - treacherous stuff.  Plus a few roads with a new slushy covering on them too.  I wonder what my chances of getting North Lanarkshire Council to top up the grit bin out on the street are. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Spindrift2017

[Quinach]

Well, me thinks this is going to be a bumper week for your local auto bodywork repair shop.

The weather here today must rank as one of the worst types of weather for the gritting crews - temperature hovering just above freezing, ground remaining frozen after overnight frost and heavy rain showers that wash away quickly the grit and salt they are laying down, the residual water then freezing up to provide perfect curling rinks.  End result, local punters moaning like mad on the local Facebook sites that the roads are dangerously icy and the council is robbing them of council tax and doing nought 

This summarises the ice cover here - cannot call it snow really.  Lovely crunchy sound when walking on it.  Go too fast, and you end up with a hard fall, bleeding nose and a closer than planned encounter with the beauty of it at ground level (a learning experience for one of the kids today...).

Max of 2c, light winds and frequent heavy rain showers in the afternoon.  Clear skies at the moment and currently -0.5c.

[JamesM]

Whilst the showers are light and few and far between by the time they get through to here, what is falling is proper freezing rain where each drop is freezing instantly onto whatever surface it lands on.