South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Jan 2021 onwards

[John Stevens]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

here we go

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Thanks Steve

[Tom Jarvis]

Only rain here today

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Did it settle though?

Yes on the bloody car windscreen!

[Jackski4]

Just now, Snowmut said:

Yes on the bloody car windscreen!

See it just shows we are on the right side of marginal?

[alexisj9]

It's wind direction dependent down here ene DP drops ne DP rises. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by alexisj9

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Still more ridiculous impatient hysteria, on the Model Thread, with the usual knee-jerk reactions by some Members, at the 12z Model Runs.

Have to admit myself, when I stated that the 00z Runs were quote, "underwhelming", I fell into the same trap!! 

It's my understanding, that it's quite common to see an uptick in the Atlantic prior to any High Latitude Blocking, as a result of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Totally agree with the comments of Nick Sussex, Damianslaw, amongst others but they seem to be swimming against a tide of negativity, at times.

Of course, we still need the pieces of a post-S.S.W. jigsaw to fall favourably for N.W.Europe.

The watchword, as ever in these situations, is PATIENCE, on how the Synoptic pattern evolves around mid January.

I fear that a few Days in the Model Thread for new Members/visitors, is likely to result in a course of Counselling.

I've been "banging the drum" for a mid-Kent Streamer, for a couple of Days, to deposit a little Snow on the highest parts of our Region, especially East Kent, and I havn't seen anything in the 12z output, to change my view on that.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Jackski4]

Well it’s almost time for the next set of runs, I am cautiously optimistic. Maybe just hoping. Any difference between the two ?

[Southender]

So are we all pretty much in agreement next few days are a bust?

Perhaps some of the white stuff for the Kent Alps. But for the rest of us a wintry mix at best?

Anyone still banging the snow drum to low levels?

[DanBaynes]

Had rain on and off today just east of Canterbury,  last few showers have turned to abit of a wintry mix. 30m asl

Edited January 3, 2021 by DanBaynes

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

So are we all pretty much in agreement next few days are a bust?

Perhaps some of the white stuff for the Kent Alps. But for the rest of us a wintry mix at best?

Anyone still banging the snow drum to low levels?

Yes high ground only

Even today there has been a slight reduction in uppers > may be 200M now not 150M

[Mustang]

Just been out for a stroll with the dogs, nice and wet and rainy here in Chelmsford.... you just know the moment it turns colder that precipitation will disappear like magic

[Jackski4]

Any chance of any upgrades with the uppers or is this a complete bust

[northwestsnow]

8 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

viewed last Night's G.F.S 18z Snow Fest run, from the comfort of my "pit."

Was expecting some similar charts, when I came downstairs this Morning but was left pretty underwhelmed, by what I viewed. Certainly a window of opportunity of a few Days, starting later Today.

Still favour the higher parts of Kent, and a mid-Kent Streamer, on the expected N.E. flow.

On a personal note, hearing Lassie23's sad news Yesterday Morning, reminded me that Today is an important Day, for my Family.

Had she still been alive, my wonderful Italian Mother would have been 97 Today.

Mum died in late July, 2004, as a result of a catastrophic Haemorrhagic Stroke.

Below, is an image of the last Family photo we had taken with Mum, on the occasion of her 80th Birthday. Little did we know that just short of 7 Months later, we'd lose her:

Mum, My Son Antony and Daughter Hayley, crouching next to him.

My ugly mug back row, with my 2 Sisters, to my right.

Scroll back some 74 Years, to April 1947:

 

Mum and Dad on their Wedding Day in Mum's home Town of Caserta (about 20 miles North of Naples).

Dad stayed in Caserta at the end of the War, to marry his Italian Fiancee.

During their Honeymoon on the Isle of Capri, along with 2 other married Couples, they were invited to spend an Afternoon sunbathing on the private beach, owned by Lancastrian Actress/Singer, Gracie Fields.

Mum said Ms Fields opened the front door of her Villa, with her hair in curlers.

Dad was part of the Allied Forces that liberated Mum's home Town, from Nazi occupation.

The irony is his Father (my Grandfather), was German.

Mum and Dad met, after he was taken out of the front line in Northern Italy, after being wounded in the shoulder.

After recovering, he continued his service in the Military Police, and was stationed at the Royal Palace of Caserta.

At the end of the 2nd World War, the Allies used the Palace as their Headquarters in Southern Italy.

One Day Dad was detailed to patrol, the local Bakery.

Local Youths were hassling the young Ladies that worked there, stealing produce and takings.

Dad and Mum soon started courting, heavily chaperoned by her Brothers (my Uncles).

Dad told Mum a huge "Porkie" to try and impress her, though.

He told her that his Family, owned a Milk Dairy.

Truth be told, before he was called up into the British Army he'd had a Milk Round on a local Housing Estate!! Lol.

Luisa Maria Quintavalle (1924 - 2004). Buon Compleanno (Happy Birthday) and Riposa In Pace, Mamma.

The twist of fate that brought them together, is like a script from the TV Series, Timeless.

Had that German bullet been a little to the left it would have killed him and further to the right, missed him altogether.

Both my Parents, died in Lewisham Hospital. Dad lived to the ripe old age of 95.

I had a more positive outcome, after spending 5 Weeks in Lewisham Hospital after suffering a Stroke in September 2015.

How did the 06z Run go?

I see plenty of Showers are starting to run into our Region, from the North Sea.

Regards,

Tom.   

Tom,

Hope you are well...what a wonderful post ! 

Love your passion for the family!

Take care and stay safe ...

[Hotspur62]

If you watch the bbc then it looks like a very soggy 48 hours coming up for parts of Essex Kent and some parts of Sussex.As has been modelled since Friday it looks like rain and sleet and possibly snow above 150m in theses areas and no point in trying to throw it out any other way.DPs and uppers not quite low enough and lack of cold out east has also been a hindrance.Shame as the streamers that look like forming look great,just a shame it won’t be cold enough on this occasion.

on another note since Xmas eve the highest daily temperature we have had has only been 4.8,the lowest being just 0.4 and the average being just over 3 degrees.We are currently in an 11 consecutive day of below average temperatures but in this time we have only had 3 frost days as it seems to be mainly cloudy overnight and temps have normally been around 0-1 degrees.And on top of that I still haven’t seen a flake of snow here.But despite that I am still optimistic as this winter has behaved in very different ways to the last 6 which have been relatively mild in the SE(BFTE being the one notable exception).

All good things come to those who wait and being a Spurs fan I should bloody know

Keep the faith and theWill come.

 

More importantly Stay Safe

Edited January 3, 2021 by Hotspur62
Spelling mistake

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Any chance of any upgrades with the uppers or is this a complete bust

In my opinion no mate. Never fancied it in the first place and it’s just edged backwards even further last couple of days. Unless things change we are now looking towards what the SSW may bring next few weeks.

[Tom Quintavalle]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's wind direction dependent down here ene DP drops ne DP rises. 

Hi alexis,

totally agree with that statement.

A N.E. flow, would be coming at you from over the N.Sea, with a long track over relatively mild waters.

Whereas an E.N.E. flow has a pretty long track over a pretty cold, dry Continent, to arrive at Dover.

 

The Thames Corridor benefits from an E.N.E. flow (Thames Streamer), due to a reasonably long track over the Southern North Sea and Thames Estuary, the lower the 850 temperatures, the better

The currently predicted Upper Air temperatures of around -5c/-6c aren't really conducive to delivering much Snow over our Region, especially the lower lying parts and Coastal fringes.

Would be nice to see these sort of 850's again, with an IMBY E.N.E flow of course!!

                  JAN 13th 1987                                          FEB 2nd 2009

  

Regards,

Tom.  

[andymcpool]

51 minutes ago, MAF said:

so, just to summarise:-

1. it's winter.
2. its cold 
3. it isn't looking snowy for the foreseeable.
4. my gas bill will be higher than the last few years.
5. it's going to continue been winter until spring arrives. 

i think thats probably more factual than any model will ever be  

6. Have ample beer supplies.

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

In my opinion no mate. Never fancied it in the first place and it’s just edged backwards even further last couple of days. Unless things change we are now looking towards what the SSW may bring next few weeks.

you watch the GFS will give us -9 uppers in 25 minutes  

[Tom Jarvis]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes high ground only

Even today there has been a slight reduction in uppers > may be 200M now not 150M

That’s depressing for our snow starved part of the world. 

[SMU]

Heavier burst of rain here with very wet snow flakes mixed in.

2.5C

1.3D

[BLS]

Very heavy rain in TN27 and quite windy as well not particularly cold outside 

[Daniel*]

If you look at parameters from ECM we’re talking wafer-thin margins it isn’t looking good for coasts but I don’t think it ever has, not convinced only higher ground will see snow falling. Heavy precipitation will be important. 

Tuesday morning uppers -7C, DPs 0-1C.. 2C on coast 

Wednesday morning uppers -7C, DPs 0-1C.. 2C on coasts 

[Jason T]

Well whilst we all wait for the magical white this week, here's a link which may help some or all, guessing some may have this or different version.

 

Windy as forecasted

WWW.WINDY.COM

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Wind map and weather forecast

 

[abruzzi spartan]

Occasional rain here at 110m, and looking up from the front door to the top of the escarpment of the North Downs at Colley Hill, 230m, there's nothing going on of interest, at least not from a weather perspective 

[Jackski4]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

If you look at parameters from ECM we’re talking wafer-thin margins it isn’t looking good for coasts but I don’t think it ever has, not convinced only higher ground will see snow falling. Heavy precipitation will be important. 

Tuesday morning uppers -7C, DPs 0-1C.. 2C on coast 

Wednesday morning uppers -7C, DPs 0-1C.. 2C on coasts 

I agree mate. Wouldn’t take much at all to turn that wet to white.. Especially as ecm could be underplaying this or it could just randomly be colder on the day