South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Jan 2021 onwards

[SHM040519]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Next week is too far ahead anyway, while we have the synoptics we have. I'm not looking further than three days my self.

Exactly. Lets get Mon-Wed done then see where we are at. Its defo been sleety here today which in my eyes is a good start and DPs are tumbling now!

[Paul Sherman]

Lol @ GooFuS 

Get in the bin where you belong, why people still love that model is beyond me, as expected its backing down and heading towards the top 2 models in ECM/UKMO

Can we believe in the only model showing snow blanketing the SE starting in 24 hours.............Hmm jurys still out for me but believe what you want to as I know people still think GFS is King. Mesoscale wise with convection it is appalling so lets see if it can buck a trend but am not confident still.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol @ GooFuS 

Get in the bin where you belong, why people still love that model is beyond me, as expected its backing down and heading towards the top 2 models in ECM/UKMO

Can we believe in the only model showing snow blanketing the SE starting in 24 hours.............Hmm jurys still out for me but believe what you want to as I know people still think GFS is King. Mesoscale wise with convection it is appalling so lets see if it can buck a trend but am not confident still.

Don't know, let's see what happens tonight first, DP s in East Kent are heading negative.

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Don't know, let's see what happens tonight first, DP s in East Kent are heading negative.

Good luck down there hope things trend the right side of marginal and a streamer can set up. Have remembered loads of times in the 90's when Kent was cut off when all other home counties barely got a flake including Essex so could this be one of those good old set ups

[NewEra21]

UKMO isn't really that bad of a run for us down here in EA & the SE, not so good for the north of the country with higher pressure.

But down here we're mostly in an easterly flow and maintaining uppers between -6 to -8 with lower heights. 

[SMU]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

UKMO isn't really that bad of a run for us down here in EA & the SE, not so good for the north of the country with higher pressure.

But down here we're mostly in an easterly flow and maintaining uppers between -6 to -8 with lower heights. 

Yes staying very cold for a week.

Also now GFS is similar to UKMO > GFS only takes 2-3 days to get cold again..

[Paul Sherman]

Must admit am very surprised by those Dewpoint readings on XC I am seeing in Eastern Kent, pretty much everyone else has Dps around 2-4c in most of the UK but those readings in Manston, Langdon Bay etc are very good, drier air being advected over from the near Continent maybe 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

UKMO isn't really that bad of a run for us down here in EA & the SE, not so good for the north of the country with higher pressure.

But down here we're mostly in an easterly flow and maintaining uppers between -6 to -8 with lower heights. 

Exactly what I thought. I think the northerners are just mad

[BLS]

8 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

 

Friday is 5 days away...lets sort Mon-Wed first lol !

I just don’t want people to get there hopes up like they did for last week to then be disappointed again like last week. I think the next 3 rains of the gfs will fall inline with the ecm and UKmo for Monday-Wednesday and it will be mainly rain. The gfs has been on its own and right before but I can’t see it this time 

[steveinsussex]

It just hasnt been that cold, despite the recent conditions - its been, up until now, a bit of a damp squib

[Jackski4]

So in essence it’s cold all week with snow opportunities galore, even stays cold with -6 to -8 uppers around the 9th, and then turns colder again according to the GFS anyway? And we have a SSW to take into account which could bring severe cold.
 

Seriously don’t understand the pessimism..

[SHM040519]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So in essence it’s cold all week with snow opportunities galore, even stays cold with -6 to -8 uppers around the 9th, and then turns colder again according to the GFS anyway? And we have a SSW to take into account which could bring severe cold.
 

Seriously don’t understand the pessimism..

I think its being led up the garden path like we have had in many previous years! You dont want your hopes dashed!

[SMU]

New crimbo present showing up my outdated & over temp sensor !!!

Plus finally I get a dewpoint reading

Still calibrating !

Edited January 3, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

New crimbo present showing up my outdated & over temp sensor !!!

Plus finally I get a dewpoint reading

Who is that made by Steve, I was only looking at getting a new one today, my old Oregon scientific one is past its best!

[loafer]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

New crimbo present showing up my outdated & over temp sensor !!!

Plus finally I get a dewpoint reading

Still calibrating !

I got the same Xmas present!

[snowrye]

17 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So in essence it’s cold all week with snow opportunities galore, even stays cold with -6 to -8 uppers around the 9th, and then turns colder again according to the GFS anyway? And we have a SSW to take into account which could bring severe cold.
 

Seriously don’t understand the pessimism..

Because it never delivers what we all crave

[SMU]

1 minute ago, loafer said:

I got the same Xmas present!

lol good stuff

have you set it up yet- got app & connected to home WIFI but cant get station ID to add to app connection

[Daniel*]

BBC app has sleet tonight maybe it could turn wintry given those lower dew points advancing in from near continent. 

[Mal_UK]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

New crimbo present showing up my outdated & over temp sensor !!!

Plus finally I get a dewpoint reading

Still calibrating !

Hi Steve, what one is this? Does it have an outdoor temp sensor etc? 

 

Thanks, 

Mal 

[NewEra21]

DPs definitely on the way down from the east, looks fairly promising. Didn't expect them to drop that quickly.

 

[Neilsouth]

No showers, no wind here, what's going on? :D - Sellindge

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Mal Kapadia said:

Hi Steve, what one is this? Does it have an outdoor temp sensor etc? 

 

Thanks, 

Mal 

Yes its a ventus w830 one from weather shop

Dewpoint + app available

Rain depth

Wind speed

pressure

[steveinsussex]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

BBC app has sleet tonight maybe it could turn wintry given those lower dew points advancing in from near continent. 

 

I used to give you so much stick in years past due to your over ramping etc, however I just wanted to say that you have really improved in your knowledge and I have a ton of respect for your info now

 

Keep it up Daniel

[Froze were the Days]

53 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Must admit am very surprised by those Dewpoint readings on XC I am seeing in Eastern Kent, pretty much everyone else has Dps around 2-4c in most of the UK but those readings in Manston, Langdon Bay etc are very good, drier air being advected over from the near Continent maybe

Yes doesn't seem right with wind currently north or north east but as said maybe less of a sea crossing?...3c dew point here, a bit of a difference!

[Matty88]

38 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So in essence it’s cold all week with snow opportunities galore, even stays cold with -6 to -8 uppers around the 9th, and then turns colder again according to the GFS anyway? And we have a SSW to take into account which could bring severe cold.
 

Seriously don’t understand the pessimism..

I agree with the cold week bit but definitely not the snow opportunities galore bit - what's that based on?! They will be there but few and far between, esp for me nestled in East Cambridgeshire! No streamers for me... need Northerly/North Easterly for that for them to get down the wash. I cannot see any solid cases for snow here over the next 5 days - likely none at all, maybe the odd sleet shower.  

Never the less it's interesting times model watching at present! Although I hope the 12z run can be put in the bin!!!