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Model output discussion - Into 2021


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144...,ECM the middle ground here but i suspect more twist's and turns by them

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.7a734d7059ea9059951574b5251cbdd7.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.7ec7b20b9303721e90cfd082ac60edcd.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.381ad21cb3132d051dc3272c8cabf01d.png

and guess who is cooking the tea whilst i am trying to watch the ECM come out,...yes me

my OH can't cook...won't cook ha ha.

 

As long as your not cooking the charts

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

image.thumb.png.5acbe193fbf901a89b544c2ed0ec810a.pngimage.thumb.png.9b39ae7a0677b5fcd1681fc250d584e0.png Im no Wincy Willis, but somewhere will get a pasting from that!☃️

Here is the ECM snow depth .....

C946F60E-0CC8-409C-A587-BADE3312E7C5.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

At 192 the ECM, jma and gfs...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.db53f840e09f18de9eb1598f9d7effcb.gifJN192-21.thumb.gif.911f749e7ed2eb3c9e3741a2c0e5d7ff.gifgfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.c347d74583fd2c7fc21e7b2acf553a12.png

a way off  and bound to change but i hope that the ECM is wrong here.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 192 the ECM, jma and gfs...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.db53f840e09f18de9eb1598f9d7effcb.gifJN192-21.thumb.gif.911f749e7ed2eb3c9e3741a2c0e5d7ff.gifgfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.c347d74583fd2c7fc21e7b2acf553a12.png

a way off  and bound to change but i hope that the ECM is wrong here.

 

Aye, EC tempered things a bit, uk high no thanks, coming off a good GFS op for a change

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 192 the ECM, jma and gfs...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.db53f840e09f18de9eb1598f9d7effcb.gifJN192-21.thumb.gif.911f749e7ed2eb3c9e3741a2c0e5d7ff.gifgfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.c347d74583fd2c7fc21e7b2acf553a12.png

a way off  and bound to change but i hope that the ECM is wrong here.

 

ECM has moved towards them. Another run or two and could be similar. Same applies the other way. Fascinating isn’t it?

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

12_168_mslp500.png

ECM takes that low to our north so far in that direction that it prevents high pressure from taking hold around Scotland, which would probably have happened otherwise.

So, that to my eyes is a second major feature in question, along with the ridge to our west.

The ECM 12z looks like it ought to be an extreme solution in terms of how it behaves - but who knows. Such spanners have been known to be thrown before, so it's something to be wary of if you're looking for a deep cold hit before the 2nd half of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 192 the ECM, jma and gfs...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.db53f840e09f18de9eb1598f9d7effcb.gifJN192-21.thumb.gif.911f749e7ed2eb3c9e3741a2c0e5d7ff.gifgfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.c347d74583fd2c7fc21e7b2acf553a12.png

a way off  and bound to change but i hope that the ECM is wrong here.

 

The issue on the ECM is the secondary low on the southern tip of Greenland which the other models don't have, will be interesting to see if the ECM has that tomorrow morning.

Edited by Frostbite1980
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I still think a Greenland high "slider" scenario as suggested on the ECM 12Z yesterday is a valid option. Synoptically, this would be the result of a greater easterly component and a stronger -NAO signal, which would be more favoured given the rather high AAM budget right now.

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is a very dry run, especially for central areas. Here is the total 9 day precipitation..

4A5D5BEF-21B5-4C41-B099-2324E8319D3F.jpeg

Don't panic its just a little taster before the main event!.This time next week we'll be looking at Hollywood charts!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

We are ok for cold pools. North, west, East.

B0883014-5BBA-4132-8C73-7793D14108B1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Looking away from UK surface conditions (for which the 12z EC Det shows less cold conditions prevailing after next week's "easterly"), there are signs of stratospheric impacts already over the arctic at T240;

IMG_20210102_185740.thumb.jpg.e803bd0aabf69004e5c410e3824ff407.jpg

I personally don't expect good model continuity anytime soon, although admittedly, a less cold mid month period is looking a realistic possibility.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

In fact, looking at how the ECM run played out +168 to +240, that low near Svalbard was made the focal point for a tropospheric polar vortex imprint to establish, into which the model threw a questionable number of Atlantic lows in a short space of time.

Going forward, a deep cold trough would establish with a central point close to our northeast as we reach the midpoint of the month. Not what I'd prefer down here but for those up north that would be... quite dramatic.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

Don't panic its just a little taster before the main event!.This time next week we'll be looking at Hollywood charts!

Yes, hopefully in a week or two we will be back to saying ‘Day 10 has potential ‘

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

With all due respect, I read your winter forecast and it didn't even mention the risk of the spell we're seeing now. In fact, from memory, I think you went mild, wet and windy. 

You obviously have a good grip on the fundamentals but the weather makes fools of us all.

Below are weekly charts for January 2014 make up your own minds but i think we have a far better chance of lowland snow and below average January this year compared to that monster 2014 PV in January.

This was ians prediction for January 

January 2021 will continue the wet- and at times- stormy theme. Expect something like January 2014- it will be cold enough for snow at times in the uplands of Scotland and across Northern Britain, but don't expect widespread snowfall across the lowlands. There will be some frosty nights with clear spells following colder west- northwest winds, but nothing of any severity anywhere. The Midlands and South will get the driest and brightest weather, and with mild south-west winds at times air temperatures will still reach 13C widely.

archivesnh-2014-1-1-0-0.png

archivesnh-2014-1-7-0-0.png

archivesnh-2014-1-14-0-0.png

archivesnh-2014-1-21-0-0.png

archivesnh-2014-1-31-0-0.png

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
2 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Don't panic its just a little taster before the main event!.This time next week we'll be looking at Hollywood charts!

We have been looking at and experiencing very good synoptics for some time, Its clearly just showing how difficult it is for low lying snow in the UK these days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Only high res can model streamers etc bud. The ECM and GFS shouldnt be used for convective showers from the North sea so i wouldnt worry a jot

The models looked dry on run up to BFTE and we all know how that turned out.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
31 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I thought youd have spotted the exaxt same time period matey! 

Very encouraging that run i thought!

Yep. Under modelling of strat disruption, even at 48/72 hours range, has been evident in EC runs throughout this extended slow burn run to cold, and the origins of this under modelling lie in a consistent under modelling of wave break impacts. I’m as sure as my instincts can be that the ridging will hold as the final westerly dribble is purged from the Atlantic sector.

From there we need to watch for cold air working its way westwards as the signal for an easterly increases. I’m a bit irritated to see another positive anomaly E/NE of the Black Sea on the extended EPS again suggesting more obstacles to be overcome in getting that cold advection....but other than this there’s nothing not to like today.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Only high res can model streamers etc bud. The ECM and GFS shouldnt be used for convective showers from the North sea so i wouldnt worry a jot

That's not true. During the Beast from the East parts 1 and 2 a few years back it showed the showery activity days in advance. They don't do well with specifics but they usually highlight the risk.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Great ECM up to reliable time frame,looking at fantasy island ECM bringing in Atlantic

at end of run.All waiting patiently for some definite signs of SSW stay positive and remember

144 hrs 90% chance of being correct 240 hrs 0%.

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