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Model output discussion - Into 2021


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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Fascinating period of model watching and as I have learnt over the last 8-9 years when there is so much uncertainty,especially adding on to the SSW which is due to be factored in ,the swings in the models relates to some of the swings in mood in here🤣!,(shows the real passion in here👍)

    There is no real agreement between gfs,ecm and UKMO even at 96-120 hours so there is very little chance anything past that.My gut feeling is upto Tuesday those South of midlands will see a rainy sleety mix,especially the further east you are but even in the south hilly areas (150m plus) may see snow.DPs need to drop just a small bit in the south for snow to become more prevalent and this seems possible Tuesday night onwards.Further north and as proved right now dps are lower and snow is falling in the NE (👍👍❄️) and moving SW in other parts of the NW and possibly Wales.

     

    Scotland looks the most likely place to stay right side of marginal throughout the week IMO.

     

    Just try and relax(I know it’s hard but I haven’t seen one flake down here this winter🤣) but I feel as the week progresses I may even see snow this week and as the knowledgeable and respected members like Scott catacol Steve M etc say the pattern seems set fundamentally on a cold January-yes there will be an inevitable milder spell(how mild too far in distance to worry) but we haven’t had charts that give excitement and reason to be positive in January for many years now.👍❄️

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    I have had a good look at the strat charts this morning and there appears to be a lot of guesswork as to how the SSW may affect the trop.  All indications to me are that we have a good propagating eve

    The ongoing strength of the HP anomaly over Kara/Ural region is notable. And still EPS is flagging an ongoing North Pacific / Aleutian Low setup. Can’t remember seeing such a sustained pattern like th

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Para retains the low to the North, much different to its 00z run.

     

    gfsnh-0-126 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-132 (3).png

    I think I read that the para GFS has input from ecm, so we have to watch and learn to see if it exhibits any of the ecm overdoing heights after d8? For those of us that love cold and snow that bias has led us up the garden path many a time!

    The gfs 06z is similar to 0z but is further east, so the snowy low slides down the North Sea around d8-9:

    gfseu-2-210.thumb.png.92d8b05cdf95347d60c40b56a66131b2.pnggfseu-0-204.thumb.png.cf24b3daa97ef4b2cd3c6eac12f76d22.png

    The gfs ops look a reasonable solution and the flattening of the pattern looks likely, but how long is the question?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    My toys are in my hand and they are ready to be launched 😤 ECM and GFS are both snowless (apart from the odd flurry) for 50% of the UK , and by day 10 it’s turning milder,  so we don’t even have FI to hold onto.  Quite ironic that the SSW us potentially killed out chances for anything before last 3rd of winter.  Very disappointing for those hopeful of a snowy mid winter. I know some localised areas have seen a bit of snow but the map below is quite representative of the areas that look likely to miss out on proper snow 😔

    8F473BEF-A01C-4ABD-BD28-B5B067E6EB5B.gif

    78E471AC-6417-4A87-BC85-C8080CCFFACB.gif

    8CEA59E5-B55B-4A48-B04D-7CAEC11D6D02.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    High pressure over uk seems more Rebust where is going to end up..??

    0205D0F5-D059-4F1A-8465-0429F98DB2B4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    My toys are in my hand and they are ready to be launched 😤 ECM and GFS are both snowless (apart from the odd flurry) for 50% of the UK , and by day 10 it’s turning milder,  so we don’t even have FI to hold onto.  Quite ironic that the SSW us potentially killed out chances for anything before last 3rd of winter.  Very disappointing for those hopeful of a snowy mid winter. I know some localised areas have seen a bit of snow but the map below is quite representative of the areas that look likely to miss out on proper snow 😔

    8F473BEF-A01C-4ABD-BD28-B5B067E6EB5B.gif

    78E471AC-6417-4A87-BC85-C8080CCFFACB.gif

    8CEA59E5-B55B-4A48-B04D-7CAEC11D6D02.png

    mine nearly out, after umpteen poor GFS op FI's, can this be discounted? hmmmm not sure sure, thinking boring milder high pressure from around 11th is possible! but hope not

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    56 minutes ago, Nick F said:

     

    Can't help but feel the west Russian block keeps preventing or delaying deep cold pools from dropping out of the arctic towards there 

    Hi, i'm a beginner, so please go gentle. I noticed that there has been a small trough in Moscow area on the charts for days which seems to me to prevent the 1055mb high pressure west of the Urals linking with the 1030mb ridge over Scandi. Could this be delaying a colder regime setting in for us?

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    My toys are in my hand and they are ready to be launched 😤 ECM and GFS are both snowless (apart from the odd flurry) for 50% of the UK , and by day 10 it’s turning milder,  so we don’t even have FI to hold onto.  Quite ironic that the SSW us potentially killed out chances for anything before last 3rd of winter.  Very disappointing for those hopeful of a snowy mid winter. I know some localised areas have seen a bit of snow but the map below is quite representative of the areas that look likely to miss out on proper snow 😔

    8F473BEF-A01C-4ABD-BD28-B5B067E6EB5B.gif

    78E471AC-6417-4A87-BC85-C8080CCFFACB.gif

    8CEA59E5-B55B-4A48-B04D-7CAEC11D6D02.png

    Is that an Omega block but in an unfavourable position for the UK?

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    1 hour ago, Nick F said:

    Morning

    It seems the models aren't expecting a QTR from the SSW, so invariably we can assume background tropospheric drivers are dictating the upper flow patterns until mid-month, otherwise EC and GFS wouldn't be filling up the arctic with low heights in the medium range. 

    A question mark over de-amplification of the ridge over the Atlantic days 8-10, GFS seems to have been keen on this for a few days now and EC seems to be trying to head that way, but still has more amplification upstream. UKMO, as far as it goes, GFS P and GEM holding on to more amplification. But IMO 50:50 we may experience a brief less cold spell towards mid-month or we stay blocked from Atlantic influence before perhaps we see the effects of the SSW on the trop pattern to bring more blocked colder pattern back.

    Can't help but feel the west Russian block keeps preventing or delaying deep cold pools from dropping out of the arctic towards there - if this happens, then I feel things will start moving quickly in the trop with regards to deeper cold moving towards us from the east. Perhaps the SSW will help in this respect, as for now the Russian high is holding back deep cold from surging west from Siberia due to to extending quite far south or preventing deep cold pools dropping south.

    High Nick,

    Great article on SSW from Marco Patanga  on Twitter still lots to learn on time it takes to kick in.

    Mid month slightly less cold very uncertain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    mine nearly out, after umpteen poor GFS op FI's, can this be discounted? hmmmm not sure sure, thinking boring milder high pressure from around 11th is possible! but hope not

    Going by history of recent years no it can't be discounted, continuous op trends from run to run from later mid-term are sometimes then followed by the ens/means but there are other factors in place in the next week or so, so maybe a lot of model uncertainty (as if this hasn't been mentioned). No often we get a clean path to real cold, maybe Dec 2010 the exception.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Ok, I have an update from the team over here with specifics for the UK. Taking out any equation as regards to SSW in the conversation , I have a very interesting view on the models and forecast charts for the period 144t -240. Looks like a big difference now to evolve in that period between GFS and the UKMO . In their own view they still expect lower heights over Europe and a NEly flow into the British Isles with increasing snowfall for many,especially the Eastern side of Britain. This theory based on the East Atlantic high to enforce amplification towards the East Greenland Sea and to hold. Further outer range charts show the possible threat of a significant low to develop way out to the SW of Europe and move into the colder air mass but thats a low way off at the moment but is never the less being flagged. Should get a correction this evening from GFS/ECM run, they advise. So all in all very positive for you guys for early January cold spell to continue. Certainly better than the past few years.

    C

    Hey Carinthian 🙂

    Do you work in a European weather centre or the like? I always find your posts interesting because you’re always quoting ‘the team’ and ‘they’..... who are these people? Where you taking this inside info from? 
    Genuine question 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Ok, I have an update from the team over here with specifics for the UK. Taking out any equation as regards to SSW in the conversation , I have a very interesting view on the models and forecast charts for the period 144t -240. Looks like a big difference now to evolve in that period between GFS and the UKMO . In their own view they still expect lower heights over Europe and a NEly flow into the British Isles with increasing snowfall for many,especially the Eastern side of Britain. This theory based on the East Atlantic high to enforce amplification towards the East Greenland Sea and to hold. Further outer range charts show the possible threat of a significant low to develop way out to the SW of Europe and move into the colder air mass but thats a low way off at the moment but is never the less being flagged. Should get a correction this evening from GFS/ECM run, they advise. So all in all very positive for you guys for early January cold spell to continue. Certainly better than the past few years.

    C

    And bang on cue the gfs mean looks further west with the amplification at 168 hours!!!!im expecting further improvements this evening as well!!think the models are just struggling to shift things around a bit!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS day 7 mean stays at -6 now where as before it was only half covering the UK, also lower heights...

    Also, already the GFS backtracking on the speed & 'positive' tilt on the high as it sharpens up.

    86624299-52CD-4C08-9863-B164D6337FD3.thumb.png.450c2ea4f35d1833e38da6fbccd8f1de.png875D9212-0C53-43E4-9AE9-03C2DA4220C5.thumb.png.a7645a73bcfa3e72e054c123379d9263.png

    As ever UKMO is the model to follow...

    Great minds think alike!!just posted a similar thing👊

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    13 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    Hi, i'm a beginner, so please go gentle. I noticed that there has been a small trough in Moscow area on the charts for days which seems to me to prevent the 1055mb high pressure west of the Urals linking with the 1030mb ridge over Scandi. Could this be delaying a colder regime setting in for us?

    Yes, there does seem to be a general disconnect of circulations of the strong high pressure system over western Russia and any ridging that pops up over Scandinavia. So the intense cold lurking just east of Moscow doesn't really get moving west. Ideally need higher latitude blocking over NE Europe /NW Russia to pull the deep cold our way, the high over Russia too far S and E.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    41 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Ignore day 10 if showing mild, believe day 10 if showing cold because it is trending that way.

    Don’t ignore it but don’t get overly concerned by it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I’ve stopped thinking Scott - it’s a waste of my energies .......

    I saw the drop down of low heights now at day 6 when it was ‘showing’ at almost two weeks distance ......... but this has now less clarity as it’s got below day 8 and there are varying features/patterns trying to gain traction which are sort of ‘mutually exclusive’ - hence the lack of good continuity .....

    so I’m just watching and not really analysing because as I said, I think it’s a waste of time.  
     

    We will learn a fair bit about the models over the next week or so and their ability to respond to a reversal. As has been said above, whilst we were all expecting to see wintry nirvana appear in week 2 as the models digested the certain reversal approach into their starting data, what may well be the result is that the models have actually now seen the standard flushing down of the westerlies ahead of the reversal.  I guess few had warned about this possibility because the westerlies in the mid to upper strat seemed  fairly slack compared to normal. It didn’t seem like much of a risk. not a done deal but if it does transpire that we go flat for a short spell in the 8/14 day period, that’s not a bust for the models - it’s sort of normal for a reversal that downwells ....short term pain = long term gain. 

    Great analysis and totally plausable but im kind of in Catacols boat here when flushing out of westerlies from a very low base rate anyway in my opinion shouldnt be blowing up the vortex like its shown to do.

    Maybe the models are over reacting and going to previous climo on the flushing out and will ease on this strength the nearer we get?

    You know my oponion as im sure a village in Mozambique does by now and i have a simialar attitude to it all that you do.

    All said and done as with any ssw its fascinating as it should be for any weather enthusiast to watch it unfold and equally as frustrating!

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    Posted
  • Location: Clevedon, North Somerset
  • Location: Clevedon, North Somerset

    Morning all,

    Exciting times for Model Watching. It's great to have so much to discuss after a run of winters with so little really (barring FI dreamcasting)

    But, my only caution would be that the enthusiasm to be the first to spot trends and new factors effecting output can lead to many mis-leading posts. This is what exaggerates what is already a roller-coaster ride for us all.  Science is better for review, reflection and patience.....not natural partners of on-line forums I know but we can all try.

     

    Russ

     

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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