Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Uncertainty]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Uptick at the end of the graph even bigger on this suite, its not like i am not providing evidence.

 

It’s been there for days Feb 

MJO headed to phase 2 and corresponding Nina Jan composite...

Also CP Nina going forward looking likely and SSW interference might make a passage to the WP with good amplitude really tough...

So yes there’s evidence for a westerly spell in the medium term, but most suites go for a later split so I’m going for a week tops of SW guff then lift off.

Something like this perhaps?

Edited January 1, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

It’s been there for days Feb 

Also CP Nina going forward looking likely and SSW interference might make a passage to the WP with good amplitude really tough...

So yes there’s evidence for a westerly spell in the medium term, but most suites go for a later split so I’m going for a week tops of SW guff then lift off.

Something like this perhaps?

You see all of them background signals point to a westerly phase you just described but its like getting booking confirmation for your holiday then realising theres no petrol in the car to get to the airport

Closer to the time i envisage models realising there is just not enough oomph or westerly inertia in the atmosphere to push systems on that course i see them grinding to a holt behind wedges much like the GFS P and ECM

[Uncertainty]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Oh i agree.

They cant be ignored and they could prove to be correct but to my mind they dont make any actual sense other than they are picking up on the early MJO signals working through 3 and 4 and imprinting these as fact.

I just cant see how those heights in the polar region could be antwhere near what they are with no fuel to get the vehicle moving.

All will be revealed. You and feb make very valid points backed up by very valid ensemble evidence so i have empathy and understanding on why you would come to that conclusion.

But for me no. I just dont see it. I think this period will look very different this time next week.

Only time will tell. If it turns out we do hit s mobile period then we do and ive got it wrong as is normally the case anyway forecasting but either way i would then only see the end of january revert to very cold type again

You’ve been Bob on so far Scott, unlike the supercomputers you’ve never let us down

Honestly pal at this point I’m more interested in human input and reasoning inc this forum and Wxtwitter + MO as the supercomputers flounder in this setup and as I’ve been suggesting it *loooks* like they’ve got this whole winter wrong too...

Amy Butler,  @chionomaniac and others called this SSW almost to the day with no fuss almost a month ago and the models lagged them well behind.

[Snowman.]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Uptick at the end of the graph even bigger on this suite, its not like i am not providing evidence.

 

Might be a reaction the dropping of the PV into europe as the pattern flattens briefly, looking at the GEFS an injection of polar heights mid month loos to be on the cards with a potential split by greenland it could well be ripe for the taking.

As much as a 10 week cold spell would be amazing, you have to think logically there will be moments of mildness before we await our next chance.

2013 is once again a good year to compare too, we had Jan and March ofcourse (april too but that was just not normal) but there was two attempts in Feb. Charts below.

 

They didnt amount to much, but they where chances either way. I see the upcoming months featuring lots of chances of cold to invade our shores and the law of averages works in favour with the more chances we get.

Keep the faith Feb, been a crap year but even during our worst winters there's always been chances.

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

You’ve been Bob on so far Scott, unlike the supercomputers you’ve never let us down

Honestly pal at this point I’m more interested in human input and reasoning inc this forum and Wxtwitter + MO as the supercomputers flounder in this setup and as I’ve been suggesting it *loooks* like they’ve got this whole winter wrong too...

Amy Butler,  @chionomaniac and others called this SSW almost to the day with no fuss almost a month ago and the models lagged them well behind.

Yeah well i hope human understanding on why computers sometimes throw out incorrect solutions works again. That is my opinion but i hope no other member pulls you on yours or febs because it has credency makes sense and could prove to be correct. But this is the beauty of weather forecasting and what makes it the perfect hobby to run parallel to a forum

Edited January 2, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Allseasons-Si]

This is what the strat pv looked like on Jan 1st last year,look how strong/cold it was -84 in places

this is what is forecast for the middle of Jan this year

hrs 6-192 and 192-384

The models will not have an handle on this yet for a good few days>... given the time lag for the down welling into the trop pv. 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Duane S.]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another flat GFS op, forget that potential brutal drop at the end of the GEFS now, it aint happening.

Need the strat to play ball but even thats slightly poorer at 270 on this run. The wheels are starting to fall off.

Sorry, no, to say ‘the wheels are starting to come off’ is just plain dramatic and completely misleading.

Feb,  you know enough and have been around for long enough to understand the potential in this. How unusual this is.  And how volatile the output is likely to be in this situation. 

I posted in the strat thread earlier today that I could see a bit of a relaxation of the cold around mid month, but that hardly means the whole thing is a bust, which is how your post reads.

[Scott Ingham]

20 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

You’ve been Bob on so far Scott, unlike the supercomputers you’ve never let us down

Honestly pal at this point I’m more interested in human input and reasoning inc this forum and Wxtwitter + MO as the supercomputers flounder in this setup and as I’ve been suggesting it *loooks* like they’ve got this whole winter wrong too...

Amy Butler,  @chionomaniac and others called this SSW almost to the day with no fuss almost a month ago and the models lagged them well behind.

Juat to also add.

If we see an evolution close to the ECM any relaxation of amplification on a middle ground scenario betweem human and computer thinking would open up many battleground/slider scenarios which ironically could deliver more snow than the text book patterns prior

[Cryosphere.]

Upper ridge over Scandi......i'd buy that for a dollar!! :)

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Sorry, no, to say ‘the wheels are starting to come off’ is just plain dramatic and completely misleading.

Feb,  you know enough and have been around for long enough to understand the potential in this. How unusual this is.  And how volatile the output is likely to be in this situation. 

I posted in the strat thread earlier today that I could see a bit of a relaxation of the cold around mid month, but that hardly means the whole thing is a bust, which is how your post reads.

Must admit i do like the 18z GEFS, quick wave response to 2nd attempt at split?

[Cryosphere.]

agreed... the text book is out the window as things stand. What we get is too be.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Any chart at the moment past 150 hours is purely just noise. Every run past that timeframe ends up with different results. As far as experience serves me correctly, the easterly at the end of Dec 2005 actually disappeared at less than 48 hours prior to the day, before reappearing again!! 

Better off to focus on the here and nows. Looks like we have pretty much got the cold in place. So let’s watch how the next few days unfold rather than weeks. Little surprises I guarantee you will crop up. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Mucka]

7 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO is fine to me...

Day 5/6

         

Yes the parent low is moving almost due north, but you can see the split jet and the sharpening trough sinking southwards towards the UK. This will bring sleet/snow southwards within a frontal system before the Euro low reinvigorates. The Atlantic high will remain in place, especially as Arctic air will likely interact with the low south of Newfoundland that will create a sharp trough along the Eastern seaboard.

All speculation at the moment of course, but I am struggling to see the pessimism in this outcome. 

I don't know why. All you need do is see where the GFS takes the same synoptic. The Atlantic low is just going to ride NE from there.

I really don't know why people think UKMO 144 is good for sustaining an amplified pattern further into Jan as there is nothing in the 144 chart to suggest it won't flatten SE since the Atlantic ridge won't magically stay in situ with forcing from the W and no undercut and no low pressure/deep trough to prevent that SE decline.

On UKMO most of the energy to our N at 120/144 is heading NE, maybe just 10% is split S. There is little chance of Euro trough invigorating 168/192 to help out and the Scandi ridge is going to be dismantled by then as well. 

If the output goes the way of the UKMO I would bet my house (well maybe somebody elses house) we would not have cold upper air over us by day 10 even if it remained relatively cold at the surface.

I have total conviction in the above which is why I seriously hope UKMO is wrong 120/144when considering prolonging or improving the cold winter synoptic we are currently in out toward mid Jan.

The only positive thing is that it could well be wrong. We may end up with a messy halfway scenario where energy is properly split which would give the pattern a chance of reamplifying as the ridge to the E/NE may still be strong enough to deflect the next low S but much better we get the first low to head South and sustain some blocking for a while to the E to help back up the patter until the Atlantic reamplifies against a reinvigorated Euro trough causing the next Atlantic low to disrupt instead of moving NE.

If people still cannot understand this then just check all the output where the low heads South and then NE like UKMO - it is not a coincidence that virtually all of them that have it move NE flatten the pattern and break down while those that have it drop S remain more amplified and blocked for longer. Prima facie.

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

Morning. 

Icon GIFS... More energy digging south and better Greenland heights. Not a bad start

 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 96 looks slightly better I think here. More robust Greenland heights.

 

[Battleground Snow]

120 and 144 UKMO.

Superb!

Energy heading south. Can those heights over Scandinavia link with Greenland at 168?

 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS looks a lot different at 144. Sends a lot more energy North.

Couldn't find a -10 in the early frames, but more widespread -9s further south. Good for the south east members

 

[Battleground Snow]

Para steadfast with dropping the low here at 120. Really impressed with the consistency. Ukmo has moved towards it for sure. Will ECM also later?

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

The para give snow as early as 144 here for south west members...  No need to worry about a 240 chart here

 

[Kentspur]

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS looks a lot different at 144. Sends a lot more energy North.

Couldn't find a -10 in the early frames, but more widespread -9s further south. Good for the south east members

 

Unfortunately a slight rise to minus 6c uppers here in the SE corner but good for areas further north such as Eastern England and Central Southern areas

Edited January 2, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Unfortunately slightly rise to minus 6c uppers here in the SE corner but Good for areas further north such as Eastern England and Central Southern areas

Morning kentspur,  there are -7 and -8s over Kent at times

[Battleground Snow]

Last one from me.. snow storm down the east cost at 204 on the regular GFS.

Gem is sending more energy North too, ECM usually looks similar to gem in the early stages, so will be fascinating to see what it shows.

Excellent start to the day

 

[SLEETY]

Gfs struggling as usual in these set_ups and it's output is completely garbage after t192, shredder the best place for that utter mess 

[dragan]

gfs is fairly consistent in ending this cold (ish) snap past day 9ish, shown up on a few runs.

As per usual, south and west would feel milder air first, with northern and eastern seas clinging on to the cold air longest.

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Look at that. Very strong high pressure in the Atl. Ocean, combined with low pressure in NW-Europe going south.