Model output discussion - Into 2021

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Right to keep this simple theres 2 things to look out for on 12z gfs!!less developed shortwave at 120 hours coming out the continent which should then keep cold air over us for the 6 and 7th and the second is further improvements with that droopy low to the north of us!!anyway am done i be back around 3.30 peeps

the 12z GFS ,. seems to always upgrade what was shown on the 06z ~~ let's hope I haven't cursed this now

[Anthony Burden]

GFS dropping the low pressure to our east perfect driving in some -10hpa 

looks very good to me,but still big question marks past 168 hrs .Lots going

on stratosphere/troposphere so don’t be surprised of some major changes in a short

time frame.

[Updated_Weather]

33 minutes ago, AFCBSNOW said:

GFS cant map Zonal reversing as well as ECM I believe.  ECM is where I am holding my candle. 

ECM has more strat data than GFS.. so maybe the ECM will be the model to lead.

[Tim Bland]

6z GFS has 300 hours of snow opportunities ...Not going to grumble at that ! GFSp still going at day 10...

[Ice Day]

Well, there's a bewildering array of options being presented at the moment.  From the 6z GFS at 246

To the Para at 222

Still amazing runs coming out, but a word of caution.  FI is even earlier in the runs that usual, I would say that anything beyond 96 is to be taken with a large pinch of salt, the chaos above in the strat is going to cause increased 'Shannon' for a while yet.  So whether they're showing frigid easterlies or warm south westerlies, treat each run with with a healthy dose of scepticism.

Just enjoy the ride, it's going on for a while yet! 

[Battleground Snow]

Lots of options within the ensembles, but a still a brilliant mean for 168

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[fromey]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well, there's a bewildering array of options being presented at the moment.  From the 6z GFS at 246

To the Para at 222

Still amazing runs coming out, but a word of caution.  FI is even earlier in the runs that usual, I would say that anything beyond 96 is to be taken with a large pinch of salt, the chaos above in the strat is going to cause increased 'Shannon' for a while yet.  So whether they're showing frigid easterlies or warm south westerlies, treat each run with with a healthy dose of scepticism.

Just enjoy the ride, it's going on for a while yet! 

I was about ask, could the up coming events in the atmosphere be confusing the models now and they can’t get a handle on it? 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

I was about ask, could the up coming events in the atmosphere be confusing the models now and they can’t get a handle on it? 

I would say almost certainly yes, but to what degree remains to be seen.  I'm sure one of the strat bods on here will give an update.

[snowking]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like all the models are going to develop arctic highs/ridges in response to the SSW ....... more uncertainty 

Indeed. As much as I would continue to advise not concerning yourself with anything beyond day 5 right now on operational (because solutions after this time will continue to flip wildly from solution to solution I suspect) that certainly seems to be the direction of travel by around day 15.

Who knows where it will end up (NWP certainly won’t for at least another 10 days), but if we are seeing a direct stratospheric/tropospheric imprint, then that leaves us in a pretty good situation in terms of Greenland heights in the extended period - we may, as a result, have to see a slight relaxation of the prevailing pattern between days 10-15 to get there so don’t be surprised to see models toying with this idea (though whether it happens or not who knows - with an Arctic high in the mix everything is up for grabs)

General idea is increasingly cold and zonality nowhere to be seen.

When was the last time we could say that at the start of January 

[IDO]

D7 on the 06z gefs and this is def FI. There looks like three clusters and variation within each of those. Trough dropping at d6; trough delayed to d8; or maybe easterly continuing, as per the control, till d9 before dropping?

The delayed options seem a route to a flatter pattern in our sector with the control the worse, op middling and ecm-like the best (for cold)?

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by IDO

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowking said:

Indeed. As much as I would continue to advise not concerning yourself with anything beyond day 5 right now on operational (because solutions after this time will continue to flip wildly from solution to solution I suspect) that certainly seems to be the direction of travel by around day 15.

Who knows where it will end up (NWP certainly won’t for at least another 10 days), but if we are seeing a direct stratospheric/tropospheric imprint, then that leaves us in a pretty good situation in terms of Greenland heights in the extended period - we may, as a result, have to see a slight relaxation of the prevailing pattern between days 10-15 to get there so don’t be surprised to see models toying with this idea (though whether it happens or not who knows - with an Arctic high in the mix everything is up for grabs)

General idea is increasingly cold and zonality nowhere to be seen.

When was the last time we could say that at the start of January 

It all looks to be going flat in the 10-15 range and has looked that way for a good amount of consecutive ensemble suites now.

[Frosty.]

Oh man, this is light years better than last winter..oh yeah, and a few before that!!!!!!...here’s the ECM 0z op / mean...and there’s a ton of other evidence!!...!..the op has improved from last evenings 12z..or am I a liar?...too me we are in for..well..winter, you know, the kind we haven’t had for years!!...ps..happy new year!  .fingers and all that!

Better op than yesterday evenings 12z..hmm.less marginal!..I think I’ve learned a thing or 2 during the last 15 years!

Edited January 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[winterof79]

Simply lovely ....snow city

 

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Simply lovely ....snow city

 

What's the location

[winterof79]

Just now, Howie said:

What's the location

West Yorkshire near Pennines

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

D7 on the 06z gefs and this is def FI. There looks like three clusters and variation within each of those. Trough dropping at d6; trough delayed to d8; or maybe easterly continuing, as per the control, till d9 before dropping?

The delayed options seem a route to a flatter pattern in our sector with the control the worse, op middling and ecm-like the best (for cold)?

 

Yes be it fi there is a trend for the Atlantic to fade somewhat and flatten. I think any introduction of an ssw could be shuffling things around in the strat but bit beyond my pay band. Still all to play for and imo anything beyond 7 days is rather suspect after looking threw all output so far this morning. Cold remains the theme tho with wintryness

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lots of pre SSW excitement, some of the output have 850s around - 6C to - 8C through next week... Are we going to get disturbances from the NW or the SE later next week! With surely some convection off the North Sea inbetween.. Either way folks this is not your normal period of January conditions.. The Pacific jet looks strong, but is completely dead on its ar@e over the North Atlantic.. 

Happy New Year all you hardened weather geeks..

Edited January 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Battleground Snow]

Arome, Harmonie, and arpege already picking up on disturbances and showers in only -5 or -6 air 850 temps.

I would use these over the next week regarding the initial Easterly for snow chances in your area, rather than the cut and paste of the ECM that the BBC seem to use.

 

[ancientsolar]

Will a good snow dumping affect the the required uppers of currently -7 to -8 ?  -- I wonder how significant -5 and -6 uppers would be to snow covered land? 

I believe the beast from the East when it started to break down lead to some very heavy snow events as the milder air clashed with the cold air.. nearly the whole of the UK , shown on a satellite was covered in snow.

[saintkip]

Are we still at day 10 for the good stuff?

[Frosty.]

48 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nowt marginal about this... Shame it's out in La La Land!

    

Hey Ed.. I mean Pete..there’s plenty of cold on the models before La La Land!

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Are we still at day 10 for the good stuff?

Tbh the only thing looking like happening is some wintry showers moving east next week esp over high ground. Mabye turning to snow showers if 850s permit

[Skullzrulerz]

13 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Arome, Harmonie, and arpege already picking up on disturbances and showers in only -5 or -6 air 850 temps.

I would use these over the next week regarding the initial Easterly for snow chances in your area, rather than the cut and paste of the ECM that the BBC seem to use.

 

Is there a link to this please ?

10 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Are we still at day 10 for the good stuff?

Are you referring to very cold weather/more widespread snowfall? 

Unfortunately there's a lot of uncertainty with the SSW and being that FI seems to start a lot sooner timeframe 

I do share you're frustration though 

Anything could possibly happen at this point so we just have to wait and see 

[username home]

12 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Are we still at day 10 for the good stuff?

the good stuff is always 10 days away in the models!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It all looks to be going flat in the 10-15 range and has looked that way for a good amount of consecutive ensemble suites now.

I would take all the guidance at the 10 to 15 day range with a huge amount of trepidation Feb... With a strat deplacement or split likely in the next few days, those longer range outputs are gonna be very much subject to change. 

I would say some areas could be seeing snow next week from this Estly... The last few days have proven how we don't need significant low uppers to bring us the rewards.. I'm also noticing Weather online are mentioning the risk of snow possibilities into England and Wales... Could be plenty of radar watching moments through next week. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES