Model output discussion - Into 2021

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still the worst of big 3 for Wednesday, mild air on this low, rain for most, need to see 12Z move towards EC and UKMO

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

Looking at the 24 hour trends the chances of that northerly rapidly diminishing to be replaced from the ever deepening cold in the East...

Yes and with uppers starting at -8 and heading down ...I’m happy to keep the easterly going as long as possible

[Griff]

Para continuing to ask more questions... 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still the worst of big 3 for Wednesday, mild air on this low, rain for most, need to see 12Z move towards EC and UKMO

Need that wayy less developed otherwise it will just push mild air in for a bit!!!!over to the 12z!!

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Hi Steve happy New year,is this a good thing?

Its ok yes as low as the low stays well to the south in Europe...

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Para continuing to ask more questions... 

Can anyone explain what's causing some models to show the low dropping, and some to send it north? 

Para should head the ECM route in later frames or maybe even better

[KTtom]

East? North? Looking at the uppers I know which direction I would prefer... there is a video on the web from the Met , 10 day trends which explains why they are not worried about snow for the first part of next week.

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still the worst of big 3 for Wednesday, mild air on this low, rain for most, need to see 12Z move towards EC and UKMO

That milder pocket of air (-5c) only lasts about 18hrs. Here’s the uppers before and after. It’s a good compromise IMO. ECM is now cold and dry, I’d rather roll the dice and alternate rain - snow over a couple of days than dry, grey windy and cold? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Turning into a great run this

[IDO]

The gfs 06z ebbs and flows with the energy but does get a trough to drop by d8:

[Tim Bland]

06z Vs 00z ...looks ok to me! 

[Battleground Snow]

Regular GFS now showing some split energy heading south, albeit a little later than on the ECM

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

06z Vs 00z ...looks ok to me! 

Its much better...

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Can anyone explain what's causing some models to show the low dropping, and some to send it north? 

Para should head the ECM route in later frames or maybe even better

there are varying solutions and the ops will generally jump around a bit between them ......especially behind day 5

the gfs has a different take on the trough day 5/6 but it does drop it down a few days later, though further east by then 

[frosty ground]

24 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, if the 06Z is right (and I can't imagine it being too far wrong) the best thing to do will be to look out the window:

    

Ha ha now that’s a forecast 

[bluearmy]

Looks like all the models are going to develop arctic highs/ridges in response to the SSW ....... more uncertainty 

[chris55]

Regarding that milder air being scooped into the mix from the Med Low.

ECM has moved towards UKMO this morning with the flow favourable to leave the less cold, moister air over the continent. Bringing us a much colder easterly.

GFS much flatter from the east allowing some of that air in to the mix. Only short lived but much prefer the Euros!! 
 

It’s small details in the grand scheme but important for our little patch. 
 

Will await the 12zs with interest  

 

Happy new year all.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Seems to be a renewed push of hp in the Atlantic around 216

[Battleground Snow]

Definitely prefer the para, get the cold in a bit earlier and seems less risk of things going wrong in terms of the high placement.

 

[Methuselah]

Nowt marginal about this... Shame it's out in La La Land!

    

Edited January 1, 2021 by General Cluster

[radiohead]

I much prefer the evolution on the GFSP

[booferking]

Gfs notorious for not been able to split energy with the jet but this could be one of the upgrades they added to para as it splits energy again like EC.

[sheikhy]

Right to keep this simple theres 2 things to look out for on 12z gfs!!less developed shortwave at 120 hours coming out the continent which should then keep cold air over us for the 6 and 7th and the second is further improvements with that droopy low to the north of us!!anyway am done i be back around 3.30 peeps

[I remember Atlantic 252]

deepest FI, but Cheshire Gap classic, not just the usual wet fart

[chris55]

Para highlighting what Steve was intimating about the northerly being superseded by a continued easterly! The northerly doesn’t really get going with the trough dropping to the west!