Model output discussion - Into 2021

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Crazy.

Not a sniff of the 6z GFS moving to the ECM/UKM.

It's either going to be very very wrong or very very right.

Its going to be very wrong.

Feel free to quote me in about 6 hours time...

 

[Guest]

 Come on GFS, Make America Great Again.......This is gonna be huge, all the other models are losers, total disasters!...everyones saying it!

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its going to be very wrong.

Feel free to quote me in about 6 hours time...

 

Like it was in forecasting the height rises in the first place eh NWS

[Tim Bland]

Just for balance and to prevent a shortage of sledges in the south...it’s only the GFS that has a substantial trough / low heading south late in the week. Even GFSp makes very little of it ...

[Met4Cast]

On face value, it'd be difficult to side with the GFS when you have both the ECM & UKMO flattening out the pattern, imo if the UKMO isn't showing it, it isn't going to happen. 

One saving grace could perhaps be the EPS, they're a complete mess & there is some support within them for the GFS solution. 

I'm sitting on the fence for now on how this pattern evolves. Instinct tells me it'll be the ECM/UKMO calling this right now, especially given they're better equipped to handle the SSW, but I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

[ancientsolar]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d say that classes as a potential snow storm/ event!! Cold uppers 

would the -4 to -6 uppers be enough for the South ? I guess they'll be fine for Brecon , Snowdonia and Dartmoor ~ and a week for things to change entirely hehe

[Catacol]

8 minutes ago, Howie said:

What's causing the UKMO and ECM to flatten the pattern like that? It goes against the forcing I would think??

I'd say 2 things are problematic for all models at the moment - the same 2 things as previously flagged. Firstly that north pacific low with a record central pressure for that latitude - somewhere around 925mb....and what it is doing to the circulation. And secondly the very swift impacts of the SSW that are within sight today with a very swift deceleration of winds kicking off now. EC strat models this morning have once again upgraded the level of wave 2 forcing - this time at only 48 hours! - but at the same time the 150hp charts are showing a generally faster westerly circulation. The debate around the flush or no flush of westerly momentum down through the layers is bound to raise its head again.

In short - very very dynamic processes in place right as I type. One tiny adjustment in such a dynamic process = large variation even at shortish time scales. If I had to take a guess I'd say the ECM/UKMO higher strat resolution is what is creating the shift, and on that fact alone they might come up trumps. But.....what about that N Pacific record breaker? Some believe GFS models this kind of development much better.

50/50. But for all those feeling glum the bigger picture needs to be held onto. If we get a topple I dont think it will be a long topple.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Catacol

[markw2680]

Lol this place is funny at times, no model has a clue what’s going on high up yet so I’d suspect they all will change even more than usual so the funny folk need to get a grip and stop throwing stuff about. Just worry about the next few days and it’s cold with some snow and then see how things develop 

[Scott Ingham]

So last post of me spamming the same story before the 12z as im currently dieing off with corona!

Watch for this development (also covered by @Catacol further up the board

That low on the 96 hour charts.

Watch it from 72 to 96

You want it deeper and digger deeper into America.

This kicks up a small surface ridge ahead of it on the American East Coast which pushes shortwave energy east to drop over us whilst leaving a vacuum for the north atlantic ridge to move into over Greenland

See you all at 3:00pm!

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Like it was in forecasting the height rises in the first place eh NWS

I hope its right!!!

But I'm convinced it won't be ...

We will see by 12zs ...

[weathercold]

You have to laugh, it’s what makes this hobbie so addictive. Just when you think the writing is on the wall...GFS makes you look a real fool. The atmosphere is clearly causing wild swings and we must try to remain grounded be it good or bad (model runs), huge 12Z’s later. Could we snatch victory from the jaws of defeat....tune in at 3.30 to find out.

[NewEra21]

Didn't the GFS stick to it's guns on predicting the current cold spell when UKMO and ECM were having none of it. Then they both slowly crawled back over to match the GFS, before the GFS then had a bit of a wobble.

Not saying the GFS is right, but over the past few weeks its got more respectability than the UKMO and ECM imo.

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I'd say 2 things are problematic for all models - the same 2 things as previously flagged. Firstly that north pacific low with a record central pressure for that latitude - somewhere around 925mb....and what it is doing to the circulation. And secondly the very swift impacts of the SSW that are within sight today with a very swift deceleration of winds kicking off now. EC strat models this morning have once again upgraded the level of wave 2 forcing - this time at only 48 hours! - but at the same time the 150hp charts are showing a generally faster westerly circulation. The debate around the flush or no flush of westerly momentum down through the layers is bound to raise its head again.

In short - very very dynamic processes in place right as I type. One tiny adjustment in such a dynamic process = large variation even at shortish time scales. If I had to take a guess I'd say the ECM/UKMO higher strat resolution is what is creating the shift, and on that fact alone they might come up trumps. But.....what about that N Pacific record breaker? Some believe GFS models this kind of development much better.

50/50. But for all those feeling glum the bigger picture needs to be held onto. If we get a topple I dont think it will be a long topple.

I think I need to take a break and come back in a day or 2

[WorldExplore]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I bloody love the GFS..it’s always been the best model in my eyes. .....At least today anyway! ️

Big differences between the GFS's & UKMO/ECM.

Todays 12Z's model watch just trended behind the sofa ?

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Crazy.

Not a sniff of the 6z GFS moving to the ECM/UKM.

It's either going to be very very wrong or very very right.

Gfsp is a tad less amplified than its 00z run - that’s a small step towards the euros.  

[Backtrack]

How many times have we been here before with the UKMO and ECM in agreement whilst the GFS is running alone? From experience, it’s the GFS that usually falls in line to disappoint. I’d say it’s less than 20% of the time that the GFS leads the correct path of all of the big 3...

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its going to be very wrong.

Feel free to quote me in about 6 hours time...

 

 

Just now, markw2680 said:

Lol this place is funny at times, no model has a clue what’s going on high up yet so I’d suspect they all will change even more than usual so the funny folk need to get a grip and stop throwing stuff about. Just worry about the next few days and it’s cold with some snow and then see how things develop 

Indeed. Whenever we see these battles of the models there is rarely a clear winner. It’s clear that none of them have a clue! I expect all the models today are ‘wrong’ on what the outcome will be in 7 days. Often they meet somewhere in the middle. Watch GFS flip to a flatter pattern and ECM more amplified later Best just to toss a coin !

[Paul]

Locking this now, fresh thread here: