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Model output discussion - Into 2021

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Just need the T144 chart from the gfs 06z to be mirrored on every model and medium term the potential for maintaining cold remains exponentially higher than the ecm op solution:

1823030259_gfseu-0-144(2).thumb.png.bfe822ccd294a28ec9160a689282b080.png

Of course, only the first part of the puzzle, but would keep us well in the game!

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

Crazy.

Not a sniff of the 6z GFS moving to the ECM/UKM.

It's either going to be very very wrong or very very right.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Typically GFS gets better as others get less blocky!!

GFS still very good at T144, thats another whole week of blocked cold N/E flow, can’t grumble.

BCFF38DB-7AB4-440B-BE2B-356372E1E29E.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

At 96h GFS is very different to both ECM and UKMO.

GFS

image.thumb.png.27e601276758262bc9810efb6e4f89b9.png

UKMO

image.thumb.png.ed99c03dcf5a7ab13817fd3d316c633b.png

ECM

image.thumb.png.ab31ccdcedcb8905b380a155ff579711.png

Note the different shape to the N Pacific low, and the different rate of development of that runner coming down along the northern coast of Norway. And crucially also GFS has heights closer to the southern tip of Greenland. Out of interest in the reliable timeframe - ie sub 96 hours - I'd suggest both JMA and GEM back GFS for mid atlantic high placement. Their 00z 84h stamps below...

image.thumb.png.182e0cb0d88eab491bedd4f4e9dc8847.png

image.thumb.png.329b3c5c432650fa7b277cb2bc81afbd.png

This show will continue to run....

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Its king in america and it hinges on an american low pressure.

People have reacted to morning model runs again i believe

Not reacted, commented that the UKMO and ECM have backed away from a colder solution going forwards at day 5 on their operationals. Let's see what the later runs bring.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Crazy.

Not a sniff of the 6z GFS moving to the ECM/UKM.

It's either going to be very very wrong or very very right.

Watch at T-80 onwards tonight.

Watch that pacific low it needs to dive south in America.

Its literally that!

 

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted (edited)

I always did love the GFS! 

Just to clarify for us mere mortals re the UKMO and ECM runs from this morning and the more Westerly pattern signposted by the EPS etc

Are these models not taking account of any SSW downwelling (e.g. a QTR) or are they being caused by the SSW shuffling the pack?

I would have said the former but I am just interested?

Edited by Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

At 96h GFS is very different to both ECM and UKMO.

GFS

image.thumb.png.27e601276758262bc9810efb6e4f89b9.png

UKMO

image.thumb.png.ed99c03dcf5a7ab13817fd3d316c633b.png

ECM

image.thumb.png.ab31ccdcedcb8905b380a155ff579711.png

Note the different shape to the N Pacific low, and the different rate of development of that runner coming down along the northern coast of Norway. And crucially also GFS has heights closer to the southern tip of Greenland. Out of interest in the reliable timeframe - ie sub 96 hours - I'd suggest both JMA and GEM back GFS for mid atlantic high placement. Their 00z 84h stamps below...

image.thumb.png.182e0cb0d88eab491bedd4f4e9dc8847.png

image.thumb.png.329b3c5c432650fa7b277cb2bc81afbd.png

This show will continue to run....

Yep! Not over mate at all

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Jason H said:

Not reacted, commented that the UKMO and ECM have backed away from a colder solution going forwards at day 5 on their operationals. Let's see what the later runs bring.

Yeah which is the logical thing to do you would back the majority its no critism at all

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted (edited)

Gotta say - for once JUST ONCE I think most of us would like ECM and UKMO to be wrong. 

GFS this at 144

image.thumb.png.a4889088632d25baac4f8910128aa401.png

v ECM for the same

image.thumb.png.7f3b4b4037f4b8cff5ceeb82b01abe88.png

Chalk and cheese. It's all about amplification accuracy upstream - nothing else matters really here. Models have struggled with this during the current spell. I'm off to buy an American flag.......

Edited by Catacol
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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

I think another thing we need is this low that comes down from iceland this weekend to be less deep and possibly track more south east of where it is here. Think it leaves too much residual energy over the region it's coming from for good heights to develop. Still might be ok though

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

The gfs at d8 not dissimilar to the pub run:

18z>673080679_gfseu-0-192(3).thumb.png.52c780bcd43182de1042b588d89403db.png06z>1110228804_gfseu-0-174(1).thumb.png.c375e76fc388605b8064d48cad7677a3.png

Edited by IDO
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

I bloody love the GFS..it’s always been the best model in my eyes. .....At least today anyway! ❄️⛄️

5FC9C84E-AAD6-445A-9B39-A9539BE95C39.png

A96D9E77-B463-4D41-A904-93B0741B4345.png

43EA0773-226B-4CF9-9F8E-4356DCBCA787.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS snowcover 120 as the first low tracks south

DA227EE2-5CBE-404C-8AF2-CC38DC48E7EC.thumb.png.09fc521159d8930fff01f5b53d7e21ff.png

☃️

Hehe... loving the orange splodge.... in the south east.. 06z if anything has doubled downed  up to 168 in comparison to its 00z.. not even a attempt to move towards the euros.. great model watching.

image.thumb.png.a9307c26ab19723e455310575bd9ea68.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
4 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

I always did love the GFS! 

Just to clarify for us mere mortals re the UKMO and ECM runs from this morning and the more Westerly pattern signposted by the EPS etc

Are these models not taking account of any SSW downwelling (e.g. a QTR) or are they being caused by the SSW shuffling the pack?

I would have said the former but I am just interested?

Its not that complicated its the extra amp in the GFS early doors pushing the pacific low deeper into america. 

It highlights the importance upstream to downstream mate

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I’d say that classes as a potential snow storm/ event!! Cold uppers 

BDDD6D28-0774-4CEE-A963-6F5FBB9636C2.png

481E88DF-7F40-43D7-ADA9-E9D4D2E554A0.png

DBB709CE-7388-4048-B181-A5B74A8C00AB.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well, the GFS has removed its coat and is shouting 'come on then, do you want some' at the UKMO and ECM.  Not even a trace of a backtrack here, I would say both the GFS and GFSP have upgraded in the short to medium-term!?

GFS 180

image.thumb.png.5596c9e0d2300847d9c3d616ad6c4bea.png

GFSP 120

image.thumb.png.3da9f22f805d2bca308d13dd91290424.png

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

GFS seems in-line with extended UKV..

19504776_viewimage-2021-01-03T082711_565.thumb.png.e503edd4c13289c9bcee5695fbb3ec39.png895408214_viewimage-2021-01-03T082720_891.thumb.png.447241467bab4f63a5e69a83ac0fe26e.png

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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS snowcover 120 as the first low tracks south

DA227EE2-5CBE-404C-8AF2-CC38DC48E7EC.thumb.png.09fc521159d8930fff01f5b53d7e21ff.png

☃️

Please be correct GFS

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