Model output discussion - Into 2021

[weathercold]

What a stunning u-turn from UKMO and ECM! The ECM essembles had been pointing at a warm up for a few days now but that is some flip.

Long way back to cold it seems now, the weather always seems to make fools of us.

 

[winterof79]

Meteociel - Panel GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Will the trough drop or not? 

Thhe panel says yes

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

 

Do you not think the fact only last night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? 

 

 

The 18z is called the pub rub for a reason and def makes the following 0z always seem like an anti-climax.

The gefs and seemingly the ecm suite still hold a modicum of hope, but this late in the day when we are so close to prolonging the cold as we enter the intermediary period of change, a switch by the ecm and ukmo op is a plot twist even the Eastender's writers would not inflict on their viewers!

d10 ecm means: 

No need for a commentary on these; a rogue suite hopefully, but does suggest the op is too progressive. The 12z will tell us whether the op is leading or too quick?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yet again people are paying too much attention to 120 hours and beyond in a SSW process!! 

See the charts below. Would you have foreseen the snowiest period ever recorded in this country’s history just around the corner from those outputs? 

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs00z 

A whole week of snow chances 

Bank

❄❄❄

[Methuselah]

Nothing too exciting on this morning's GFS 00Z (so I'll nae bother posting it) But, it's worth pointing out that today's modelled Uppers -- -5, -6 or -7C -- were spot on; and rain/sleet showers are, as expected, the order of the day!

Ignore the hype, and go with the flow: 

[sebastiaan1973]

I believe we see the impact of the stratosphere on the lowest level of the tropshere. Rising air pressure at the Northpole. Negative AO growing.

[mulzy]

Subtle changes int the extended EPS mean.  The mid Atlantic low heights anomaly is diminished with slightly higher heights to the northwest (Griceland area).  The low heights anomaly persists over central Europe. This setup puts Central and Eastern Europe into the freezer which *may* be beneficial for us further along.  At least the trend has been reversed and now heading back (albeit slowly and just one run) in the right direction.  

[bluearmy]

I’ve numbered the features 1 to 4. You can see how the uncertainty re each feature evolves

1 is the initial drop of heights from the north which may well be a little further west than the mean and op show

2 is the Atlantic upper ridge whic may not quite be so intrusive as the mean shows

3 is the following drop of heights from the nw which could go anywhere but is certainly well within the envelope to drop across nw Europe as the upper ridge retracts 

4 is the sceuro trough which is likely to maintain low heights to our east and southeast 

the mean (and op) cannot be discounted but the spreads show the uncertainty and where the clusters should be - I wonder if they concur ??
 

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Disagree Tim.  The movement to that point one can see that Atlantic HP will not ridge further north.  The elongated trough in Iceland and the shallow HP heights over Greenland means it’s going nowhere or will sink.

now look at UKMO and Iceland

 

BFTP

Yesterday UKMO at t144 so let’s look at t120 today

 

now let’s look at yesterday’s 6z t144 GFS

 

UKMO gone with the GFS of yesterday morning but GFS this morning has pulled away from the sinker.

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve numbered the features 1 to 4. You can see how the uncertainty re each feature evolves

1 is the initial drop of heights from the north which may well be a little further west than the mean and op show

2 is the Atlantic upper ridge whic may not quite be so intrusive as the mean shows

3 is the following drop of heights from the nw which could go anywhere but is certainly well within the envelope to drop across nw Europe as the upper ridge retracts 

4 is the sceuro trough which is likely to maintain low heights to our east and southeast 

the mean (and op) cannot be discounted but the spreads show the uncertainty and where the clusters should be - I wonder if they concur ??
 

 

 

 

I do think the ecm op is wrong, but it does not happen in the d8-10 period, so cannot be dismissed with prejudice. Looking at the gefs at d6-7 only three follow the op:

This makes me doubt the ecm take. It is post the trough-dropping on the gefs that clusters go flatter at different times in the run...

[JoeShmoe]

31 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

It's painful reading this place it really is, going from absolute joy to dispair every 12 hours like watching a 2 year old cry when you take a toy off him... 

Do you not think the fact only last night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? 

We have the next 5 days of cold easterly winds with snow chances all wk, from later today the air becomes more conducive for snow with the a slightly less cold pocket of 850's over us today with higher thickness values and due points to go with it, 

Many midlanders saw heavy snow yesterday on and off all day, with wintry weather continuing all wk nationwide,, I ask as grown adults, hold yourself together lol! 

It's the weather, not an illness, thank goodness, be excited, after all, we've been thrown a double 6 this year, beleive me, synoptically the best set up since 2010 all day long, just because the charts throw something very different to us, sit back and look for trends, keep a cool head, listen to the experts, 

I can't remember in the last wk when the 0z threw a good run out only yesterday I was reading people placing there bets on a better evening set! 

 

Someone ought to pin this post and honestly some folk need to just take a few days off and enjoy the cold spell we currently have instead of always looking for an extension or breakdown 

[DavidS]

Looking at the NHP for all the 0z runs, the one thing all the models look to be doing is moving the vortex core from west to east, (less obvious on the UKMO because of the timeframe). So although the ECM and UKMO look to be flattening the Atlantic somewhat, there shouldn’t  be the energy available to really fire up the Atlantic and cold UK prospects should remain.

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-mr showing a wintry Week ahead into next weekend, with temps remaining below average. Hard overnight frost's for most, -16c showing for the Highlands by next weekend...

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[fromey]

30hpa and 10hpa.

there’s going to be a lot more flipping and flopping to come!

[Harsh Climate]

You can powder coat it all you like but from where we was 2/3 days ago to now, the ECM and UKMO are a bit of a let down this morning.

Gfs and it's essembles have improved since 12 hours ago but we need the 2 big guns onboard.

A massive 12z coming later, far too early to be bringing the fat singing lady out, but we do not want the ECM  and ukmo going anymore the way they have gone this morning.

Not a moan or a tantrum lol just a clear observation of what is in front of me.  

Edited January 3, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[mountain shadow]

It will be interesting to see how long the GFS takes to follow the ECM and UKMO and flatten the pattern.

The 6z might be a slight nod to it, with the 12z fully onboard I think.

Then we can start looking to the SSW impacts from mid month.

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 0z ensembles

ECM 0z ensemble mean

A lot of spread from both sets of 0z ensembles this morning and much uncertainty after 9th Jan ( with the trend of some warmer 850 hPa temps )

However plenty for coldies to get excited about in the next 5 days with the highest probability of widespread snow chances for the UK since 2018 

[Griff]

23 hours ago, Griff said:

 

 

 

Trying to keep an open mind, but does anyone have a valid reason why the GFSP should be discredited? 

Run on run far more consistent, and yes I'm totally aware of confirmation bias, as I know what I'm hoping to see. 

Just an observation over the last week, but following the 'legacy' GFS () causes frustration in the morning with whooping and high fives come the pub run. It seems a bit prone to swings?

 

20 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yet again people are paying too much attention to 120 hours and beyond in a SSW process!! 

See the charts below. Would you have foreseen the snowiest period ever recorded in this country’s history just around the corner from those outputs? 

 

36 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

It's painful reading this place it really is, going from absolute joy to dispair every 12 hours like watching a 2 year old cry when you take a toy off him... 

Do you not think the fact only last night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? 

We have the next 5 days of cold easterly winds with snow chances all wk, from later today the air becomes more conducive for snow with the a slightly less cold pocket of 850's over us today with higher thickness values and due points to go with it, 

Many midlanders saw heavy snow yesterday on and off all day, with wintry weather continuing all wk nationwide,, I ask as grown adults, hold yourself together lol! 

It's the weather, not an illness, thank goodness, be excited, after all, we've been thrown a double 6 this year, beleive me, synoptically the best set up since 2010 all day long, just because the charts throw something very different to us, sit back and look for trends, keep a cool head, listen to the experts, 

I can't remember in the last wk when the 0z threw a good run out only yesterday I was reading people placing there bets on a better evening set! 

 

 

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Someone ought to pin this post and honestly some folk need to just take a few days off and enjoy the cold spell we currently have instead of always looking for an extension or breakdown 

The only accurate forecast here is for the prospect of further excitement on today's later runs only to wake up tomorrow to yet more frustrations and resignation. 

Sods law says those calling heavy snow fall in FI as outlandish and impossible, will be backed up by following runs showing a North African plume or Azores high... 

Here we are, despite virtually everyone saying 120 is FI whilst 144 to 180 is just for fun. 

On that I'd still take 00z GFSP out to 180 this morning. But for better or worse it's still wishful thinking. 

To prove my point I won't be posting the GFSP at 240 this morning! 

Anyone who knows how the dice will fall from the SSW, where the PV will relocate and or split, and subsequent trop patterns can I kindly ask that they buy me a lottery ticket too this morning, as they're clearly well ahead of everyone else. 

Looking forward to the means across the next few runs. Bracing myself for an uptick to milder, you wouldn't bet against it, but equally happy to be proven wrong about our prospects for below average temperatures and wintry weather. 

 

[Chesil View]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It will be interesting to see how long the GFS takes to follow the ECM and UKMO and flatten the pattern.

The 6z might be a slight nod to it, with the 12z fully onboard I think.

Then we can start looking to the SSW impacts from mid month.

Of course it was only recently that it was the latter who were dragged kicking and screaming toward the former.

[Scott Ingham]

Volatility.

And on to the 12z.

Trends terrible on the euros but a calm subjective mind is needed.

Id be slow to pull out the childish i told you so posts or the writing has been on the wall etc just yet with the spread available but again trends arent great!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Don't feed the trolls....many responses plus one wind-up post just removed. 

[offerman]

23 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Someone ought to pin this post and honestly some folk need to just take a few days off and enjoy the cold spell we currently have instead of always looking for an extension or breakdown 

Well I have had no snow here ( one light flurry literally few flakes the other day . Rest has been rain or sleet. But I see so many places across the country even Bristol had a lot yesterday and further southwest too  plus east snd north snd midlands as well , I'm really happy for everyone getting snow as brings some joy to a really crappy 2020 just gone . I lost my dad 12 weeks ago . 
Id love to see snow but I'm really happy most others have had some and wish you all more . I think even here there maybe a chance or two this coming week .

 

stsy safe stay happy enjoy the snow be kind to one another . 
oh, abd ignore gfs in particular past day 5/6  we have enough hissy fits from gfs .

enjoy everyone and wish you all happy 2021 

[Djdazzle]

53 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Blue army let’s hope . Can not believe the change in models this late , can GFS be that wrong 

We’ve had easterlies disappear at T72 before with cross model support, so it’s quite believable. Sadly, too many people are misled by false promises.

If the 12z suite show similar, then this one is done for now.

[Lukesluckybunch]

People always mention about the lack of PV this winter and how that is constantly a good thing,yes it should help in terms of cold but with out that there is no real driver to our weather,what I'm saying is we may well need something to shake the whole pattern up a little bit.at the moment the weather just seems rather dull and boring quite stagnant,all the weather seems to be the other side of the hemisphere.I don't personally see anything very cold in the next couple of weeks we need troughing into northern and eastern Europe otherwise there is very little cold we can tap into,yes we can create our own cold pools but that's not anything severe.people keep mentioning about the ssw effects but even that doesn't guarantee cold it all depends where the split vortex lobes end up.having said all that I am no expert honestly and it could indeed turn for the better again,but as others have said this morning with the ECM and UKMO singing from the same sheet it does seem highly unlikely now.