Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Weather-history]

Point out this is what the 14th January last year was like

So the ECM chart for 240hr doesn't look great for snow prospects, but if I were a snow lover, I would rather take my chances what comes after that chart than with the above chart.

 

In most cases, including most of the great ones, winter does relax for a time. Even 1962-63, near the end of that January, winter eased off  a touch 

[carinthian]

Not the best charts from a cold perspective produced this morning by ECM/UKMO post 144t. May tie in with the longer range forecast issued by the Met Office for a less cold spell for a time. However, looking at the fax chart, the cold front looks to move in from the NW with some sort of confidence and to produce a spell of sleet and snow but indications over here see this progress SE to be slow and erratic. So much of the week to remain cold for many and complicated to predict by Thursday into Friday.

C

Edited January 3, 2021 by carinthian

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Winter hasn’t even begun down South pal! Show me any charts in the next 7 days that shows any significant snow for the south.

Might be wrong but there are some. Can’t live much further south than me and I’m ok with where we are and where we may be heading.

[KTtom]

As mentioned above, the UKMO fax chart certainly isn't following its own model and if anything looks more akin to the GFS!

 

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

As mentioned above, the UKMO fax chart certainly isn't following its own model and if anything looks more akin to the GFS!

 

Isn't this published before the 0Z UKMO and ECM though? It's those two most recent runs which have really been the kicker.

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

As mentioned above, the UKMO fax chart certainly isn't following its own model and if anything looks more akin to the GFS!

 

That Fax chart is already out of date and was produced last night. Wait for today’s chart which will no doubt show the toppling Atlantic high introducing milder weather.

[Ali1977]

The mean (top) is v slightly better than the Op at 168 with most the U.K. still in -4/5c uppers, but it’s still not great. We need a 12z back up hopefully.

 

The ICON on the other hand has a raging Northerly!!! 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

What a complete flip . The runs across the bored are horrible . ECM mean . 

[carinthian]

13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

As mentioned above, the UKMO fax chart certainly isn't following its own model and if anything looks more akin to the GFS!

 

Yes, this is the latest run. Looks a bit different to UKMO latest model run around the same time. Maybe the human input showing a bit of disagreement ?

C

Edited January 3, 2021 by carinthian

[Ali1977]

The GEM similar to the Icon With a Northerly at T168!! It’s not over , more twists to come possibly.

[Frosty.]

24 hours ago the GEM, among other output had a superb day 10 with entrenched cold (-8 850’s) and low pressure bringing a snow fest and easterly winds, but now...well, at least we have Steve Murr to tell us everything will be fine!

[IDO]

Looking at the gefs at d10 and still some hope, maybe 25% support for the colder synoptic to continue for a few days. However, it seems the models have again mishandled the energy distribution of the features and that there will be a flattening. The ecm and UKMO seem progressive in toppling, but they simply may be better at the d5 range at correcting themselves?

The net result when we look at the d16 charts is that of the members that are showing SSWE trop responses, the UK is in a rotten pattern for that transitory period, and we end up with a poor overall synoptic for our locale. We therefore will be in the holding pattern for a while awaiting the cold to reach us.

d16>London> 

The London ens highlight that with a tailing off of snow chances and the mean 850s on the rise towards climate. The trigger for more cold is close to being in the reliable so a flip to the less cold route at this range means little time for corrections, maybe by 12z?

 

[Chesil View]

And so on our ever tortuous twisting and turning journey into winter. We have this morning's conundrum whereby the only op run suggesting what is laid out in the Meto medium and extended  is in fact the GFS. 

[Weather-history]

The Manchester 2m ECM ensembles suggest a warm up during mid month but what ECM ensemble is producing that minimum that goes through the floor on the 17th?!  Sub -15C?!

[bluearmy]

Wow - someone stole the toys, the pram and no need for a donkey or a tail!

that day 5 fax shown was based on yesterday’s 12z output 

time to check out what’s happening higher up! 

[sheikhy]

Wow that is a slap in the face!!!Guys i dont mean to be a doom monger but its done now!!!there is no way the ecm and ukmo will be wrong against the gfs!!you hope cos there is always hope but after this weeks easterly lets look and hope everything shuffles in our favour!!those are pretty drab boring charts from the euros!!whether its for a little while or for a number of weeks we dont know!!i hope i am wrong but im expecting the gfs to start its famous climb down run by run from now on!!!make the most of whatever snow you get this week!what a ride the last few weeks have been!thats me done on this forum for the time being but i be watching dont you worry peeps!!ciao for now❤

Edited January 3, 2021 by sheikhy

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It's painful reading this place it really is, going from absolute joy to dispair every 12 hours like watching a 2 year old cry when you take a toy off him... 

Do you not think the fact only last night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? 

We have the next 5 days of cold easterly winds with snow chances all wk, from later today the air becomes more conducive for snow with the a slightly less cold pocket of 850's over us today with higher thickness values and due points to go with it, 

Many midlanders saw heavy snow yesterday on and off all day, with wintry weather continuing all wk nationwide,, I ask as grown adults, hold yourself together lol! 

It's the weather, not an illness, thank goodness, be excited, after all, we've been thrown a double 6 this year, beleive me, synoptically the best set up since 2010 all day long, just because the charts throw something very different to us, sit back and look for trends, keep a cool head, listen to the experts, 

I can't remember in the last wk when the 0z threw a good run out only yesterday I was reading people placing there bets on a better evening set! 

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

The Manchester 2m ECM ensembles suggest a warm up during mid month but what ECM ensemble is producing that minimum that goes through the floor on the 17th?!  Sub -15C?!

That line below the 80% box obvs includes the coldest runs so clearly at least one ens member sees v deep cold making it this far. no surprise given yesterday’s pub runs which showed what evolutions are possible post reversal at that time scale  ....

[Doctor96]

Blue army .

 

that graph shows box and whisker plots , so minus 15c is an outlier , ie a mistake 

[Osbourne One-Nil]

As has already been requested this morning, please use the appropriate thread for your response. For example, if you want to discuss the model output, then the model output discussion thread would seem the place to do it. If you are upset that some computer generated charts are showing a version of a future that won’t happen anyway different to the version you were hoping for, I’d try the moans thread. 

[bluearmy]

The eps spreads say don’t despair just yet ! 

The table and envelope may well contain the donkey and tail so they aren’t lost ! 

[bluearmy]

Just now, Doctor96 said:

Blue army .

that graph shows box and whisker plots , so minus 15c is an outlier , ie a mistake 

Indeed - as I said, at least one run ......

in the world of coldies, the preferred term is ‘trendsetter’ rather than ‘mistake’ ......

[Doctor96]

Blue army let’s hope . Can not believe the change in models this late , can GFS be that wrong 

[WelfordRd]

6 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

It's painful reading this place it really is, going from absolute joy to dispair every 12 hours like watching a 2 year old cry when you take a toy off him... 

Fo you not think the fact only lady night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? 

We have the next 5 days of cold easterly winds with snow chances all wk, from later today the air becomes more conducive for snow with the a slightly less cold pocket of 850's over us today with higher thickness values and due points to go with it, 

Many midlanders saw heavy snow yesterday on and off all day, with wintry weather continuing all wk nationwide,, I ask as grown adults, hold yourself together lol! 

It's the weather, not an illness, thank goodness, be excited, after all, we've been thrown a double 6 this year, beleive me, synoptically the best set up since 2010 all day long, just because the charts throw something very different to us, sit back and look for trends, keep a cool head, listen to the experts, 

I can't remember in the last wk when the 0z threw a good run out only yesterday I was reading people placing there bets on a better evening set! 

 

Well said 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Well for anything prolonged this morning looks to be a low chance,I was at least expecting it to stay cold until next weekend.now this is looking not likely,the key here is how the low drops later in the week.we need it to drop down and in the right direction