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Model output discussion - Into 2021

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Para clearly decides that the later stages of the run are not for mortal eyes. One can only imagine what it looks like.

image.thumb.png.dd24f1847db791e7cb438a7253f5a16f.png

PPV,...pay per view as it is so explicit 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
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Posted

Frame it, you won't see it again! 

image.thumb.png.63685acbfaa680fa6eca167a42873525.png

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

The electric has already gone off !  

Nope it's back... 

Doubt it would stay on for long thoo... 

Ice ice baby.... 

 

gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.f8a5c7ebc4256bb193ad76491cb8e46f.png

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

A blizzard is loosely defined as roughly 3 hours or longer period of snow where sustained winds exceed 35mph.

Yes correct - although blizzard definition has become increasingly centred around NWS terminology which typically classifies blizzards only if they are widespread. Blizzard warnings can be issued locally. The point I'm making is that it isn't a classic blizzard set up. Not had a proper lowland blizzard since the 80s really. 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

Nope it's back... 

Doubt it would stay on for long thoo... 

Ice ice baby.... 

 

gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.f8a5c7ebc4256bb193ad76491cb8e46f.png

Colder uppers over the SE of England than the literal north pole 

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

The electric has already gone off !  

More than likely than that the models are not set up with colours and have gone odd the scale in order to produce  the cold picture.

MIA

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted

A really good run to watch the impact of that monster Aleutian low and pacific jet. Starts here - with the north pacific on steroids

image.thumb.png.2c1d8c96af0eb51eda638be8dbf5c20d.png

and then the residual energy of that surge arrives just off Newfoundland 192h later

image.thumb.png.9a240703cc15e81998a1e4b340454f92.png

This is what forces enough energy into a wave break to see off the slight westerly tendency arcing into the troposphere as the SSW develops, and knocks it out the way. That Greenland wave break then controls the trough, keeping it just where we want it. Perfect end product.

Wont be the same next run - how this Pacific Strike is modelled and develops will vary enormously - but in general we should get a gradual resolution towards atlantic heights holding on to the whip hand. Powder puff atlantic westerlies - how often have we been able to say that in recent years?

Meanwhile the trends for backing significant cold west from that bitterly cold pool over Asia are growing. Movement clear across all modelling. Timescale obviously a bit uncertain here because we are dealing with an SSW and that, by definition, means a tough timing call - but I'm thinking the supercomputer at Exeter is picking up on something. I'm beginning to hear more and more media broadcasts ending with phrases involving the S word....and with "rain, sleet and...." not included. 

It's only Jan 2nd. I've followed the weather in detail for about 10 years, watched it with a lack of real knowledge for 10 years before that, and been fascinated with it since a child. I've looked at many an archive and watched spells come and go. I thought 2018 was pretty awesome...but by then it was March! Jan 2nd... and we have a long range cold signal slowly building and building and an 8 week timeline to play with. I keep having to pinch myself. 

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted
7 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

1611785451_gfsnh-0-366(1).thumb.png.798ac1dd060c5db183768a7345af1a1a.png

 

Wow... 

A direct feed from that monster cold pool in Siberia. Mouthwatering... shame it's in FI 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

I have just choked on my beer,...thanks gfs?p.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.e8dc776fa3aeccfcf6b680cc2272f5bb.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.6dde95016e8840b0ef240181cf1470d1.pnggfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.156c2fe9dafb874eede56bf61914082f.png

 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
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Posted

Meanwhile closer to home. Control as a front move south which pivots over southern england, nearly all snow. It is lower resolution so dont take it for gospel however, but highlights a potential risk of a diving low.

 

image.thumb.png.255ac0d825a4264b56933aa8b2840a40.pngimage.thumb.png.a65a17cf3a5a50b1d38e763461a8c75f.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Some subtle anomalies on the 18z para.

 

gfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.ccb3caffc3f6cbc3bf60b165847a323f.png

Let's not get sucked in....

tenor.thumb.gif.717aba145cefa711df33c49ac316dade.gif

to the models...

 

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Now that is bloody insane . That is what we want

B13AFC51-0145-49F8-BB5E-19ED37DF5343.png

Northern Hemisphere Omega-block not bad.

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Some subtle anomalies on the 18z para.

 

gfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.ccb3caffc3f6cbc3bf60b165847a323f.png

That is my 1689 redux fantasy anomaly chart!!

Absolutely insane to actually see it modelled even at this point!

MIA

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

How do you get those ensemble graphs again mate?

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Wetterzentrale.de - Diagrams

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE
Forecasted Temp 850hPa & Precipitation from GFS, 18Z

Bookmark it Shaky☺️

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Now that is bloody insane . That is what we want

B13AFC51-0145-49F8-BB5E-19ED37DF5343.png

Lol. Look where that northerly originates from. The other side of the pole. That's never going to happen. Nice to look at though. 

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

That is my 1689 redux fantasy anomaly chart!!

Absolutely insane to actually see it modelled even at this point!

MIA

You mean 1684 MIA?

Been casually observing the model thread for a number of years, but never seen a chart like this. Truly awesome.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Meanwhile closer to home. Control as a front move south which pivots over southern england, nearly all snow. It is lower resolution so dont take it for gospel however, but highlights a potential risk of a diving low.

 

image.thumb.png.255ac0d825a4264b56933aa8b2840a40.pngimage.thumb.png.a65a17cf3a5a50b1d38e763461a8c75f.png

Quite a few of the ensembles produce a *blizzard later next week !

2034077D-CFAF-475B-9379-02D2B5478C49.jpeg

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
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Posted (edited)

There will be some hangovers in this thread in the morning.

These are the sorts of charts I think a lot of us were expecting to see around the day 15-20 period and here they are for all to see.

Almost certainly a bit extreme and changed again with the next run - but then again, a 12 day+ reversal likely peaking at over -20m/s, this is not out of the question...it’s just probably on the very edge of the envelope

Edited by snowking
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Cryosphere. Apprentice

Cryosphere.

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
10 minutes ago, snowking said:

There will be some hangovers in this thread in the morning.

These are the sorts of charts I think a lot of us were expecting to see around the day 15-20 period and here they are for all to see.

Almost certainly a bit extreme and changed again with the next run - but then again, a 12 day+ reversal likely peaking at over -20m/s, this is not out of the question...it’s just probably on the very edge of the envelope

Agreed...But hey, its always nice to show the dog the bone..

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