Model output discussion - Into 2021

[BARRY]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

As if it's gospel,...just enjoy the ride,we are in a good place at the moment Baz and all is looking good.

thanks will look with envy 

 

[Guest]

 I'm gonna need a bigger shovel!

[Battleground Snow]

Mean supportive at 144 at least,

Edit: control primed for stonker territory too! 156

Edited January 2, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[WorldExplore]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

We’ve seen entire ensembles flip at T96.

Indeed. Seeing an upward trend in la la land is probably a good thing for it to trend downward closer to the time.

(Reverse Psychology) . Not new to the forum as lost the previous ID (Brumwatcher)  after watching abysmal greenland vortexes for past 2 years with atlantic expresses. 

This winter vortex other side of the earth, atlantic Im hopeful for many

Birmingham Airport area -> 2cm covering from earlier. My old man of 70 took out his shovel as if it was dec2010. Sight to see.

 

 

[Decemberof2010]

GFS is like that ex girlfriend who keeps on trying to get your attention, but then ruins it. But keeps on returning 

 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

8 minutes ago, BARRY said:

Again no snow for us this is getting tedious

It’s a bit rubbish for southern parts isn’t it ?

Hopefully it’s changed by the time the overnight output comes and shows a more Easterly setup instead of northerlies!!

[bluearmy]

At T288, there is a clear correlation between 50hpa and 500 hpa 

     

[SnOwFeSt]

Very snowy run and not miles out in FI for a change. I think gfs is picking up on the ssw response- with more arctic heights and reversal in tropospheric winds.

 

I don’t want to call things too early, but this is really starting to look like a classic winter. More runs needed as ever!

[Griff]

240 gfsp, Atlantic hasn't been paid enough so it's on a go slow protest! 

[ianmm94]

Is the GFS about to try throw up a scandi high?

[Purga]

Now we're cooking on gas!

A very big IF, this develops there shouldn't be any marginal uppers worries...

[ICE COLD]

Now that’s the cold we’re after heading in to scandi

[bluearmy]

Please stop commenting where the run doesn’t show snowfall - it won’t be like that. It’s just an indication. look at the bigger picture fgs 

Edited January 2, 2021 by bluearmy

[SnOwFeSt]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s a bit rubbish for southern parts isn’t it ?

Hopefully it’s changed by the time the overnight output comes and shows a more Easterly setup instead of northerlies!!

We’ve had snow all day and fun out sledding and making snowmen with the kids today.

..None of which was forecast until this morning. With low pressure and deep cold air around anything can happen at short notice!

[SMU]

look at the Siberian cold pushing SW

Theta charts amazing

Coldest 850 chart I have ever seen

-40c over Siberia & -32 over Svalbard that will help the ice!

[Cryosphere.]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

poof atlantic gone !

Greenland high back !

Height rises over Greenland and Russia creating a dandy looking pinch! Again.. I`ll buy that for a dollar!

[radiohead]

Don't sleep on the GFSP....

 

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, BARRY said:

Again no snow for us this is getting tedious

Did you move to south Devon for the snow prospects jokes aside there’s no point getting hung up on the details it’s 100 miles different to the last run and will be another 100 miles different in the morning. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

look at the Siberian cold pushing SW

Theta charts amazing

Coldest 850 chart I have ever seen

-40c over Siberia & -32 over Svalbard that will help the ice!

Thing is Steve, with a bit of luck, there is every chance that deep cold pool moves towards us later in January. That would be country crippling cold.

[bluearmy]

Both gfs runs could have incredible crescendo’s ......

on the other hand ........

[Mucka]

31 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Slightly easier to see the GFS snow totals here by T192

And the UK snow deserts of NW and S England.

Hi Mum!

Edited January 2, 2021 by Mucka

[Allseasons-Si]

Like a knife through butter this run...

^as you can see over America the low height's have all but lifted out of this line i have drawn with all the pv over Siberia with residual height's(circled black),this to me looks like a strat feedback starting to show in the models 

this is the 12z run(18z not updated yet)and as you can see on this 100hpa chart you can get the gist of where the trop pv is located over on the Siberian side much like what the models are showing,again i have drawn a line where all the residual energy is lifted out

this is still clearly seen at 10 hpa with a split in the Atlantic with parent vortices over Siberia and daughter vortices NE states

 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Anthony Burden]

Superb GFS pub run cold all the way,a continued wintery outlook,as catacol said on the Stratosphere 

site 14 days reversal min possibly a lot more.It really is exciting times ahead for us cold lovers.

 

[Tim Bland]

Could we order the GFS for the first 10 days and the GFSp thereafter or is that just being greedy

[Harsh Climate]

As good as the run is wouldn't this be the cruelest let down of all time?