Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Notty]

GFS(P) - some very cold air heading our way (perhaps) at T+168 - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=1&runpara=1

[Ice Day]

Very little mid-term consistency in the modelling across the suites, as expected.  Just for example, GFSP at 150 vs 156 from 6z

  

This is only 6 days away!  

Expect significant changes over the next few days, even within 120hrs.  Brilliant viewing, enjoy the ride.....it's all up for grabs!

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS throwing down a small chunk of PV towards us.

 

GFS going down the METO line of thinking....no surprises then

 For the rest of the week, conditions are likely to turn more widely unsettled with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow for many areas. Overnight frosts and icy stretches are also expected with temperatures below average

[Allseasons-Si]

Go gfs,...closed heights coming up?...

go parra,...following the gfs.

[ianmm94]

GFSP blowing that low up in a true GFS fashion, but I like what it's doing further east with the Russian high. It's brought it further north and cut off the warm flow from the south, allowing the cold air to flow around the south of it and towards Europe

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Go gfs,...closed heights coming up?...

go parra,...following the gfs.

Back on track and lessons learnt on run to run over reactions! All is still extremely promising my friend

[booferking]

So its gfs para gem v ukmo.

[sebastiaan1973]

28 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. That’s nothing. Put it alongside the corresponding 12Z T+144 chart Trop ECM chart and you can understand why. Is this the increase in trop u wind that you are concerned about. Not me.

I think most of us on here would take this if that is the most extreme in westerlies forecast.

No I'm not concerned. You said: "One would expect normally a flushing down of westerly winds to the trop and therefore an increase in a flatter trop pattern for a while. But to me this is just not happening." Perhaps I'm over reacting on you saying there ain't increasing westerlies in the tropshere. Which I do see. But your main point is,it won't take long. Okay. I understand you now.

[Battleground Snow]

GEM Closer to GFS at 144.

Interesting... As it's sometimes a good precursor to the ECM.

 

[winterof79]

That's got a smidge of cold air associated with it

[ianmm94]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

GEM Closer to GFS at 144.

Interesting... As it's sometimes a good precursor to the ECM.

 

Looks good with that cold pool building over Western Russia

[Ventnor Viking]

Looking at the lastest models runs, still so much uncertainty  between all models. Looking at the general pattern, temps and upper air, it looks like there will colder conditions around (compared to most recent winters) but it feels like this winter will be the one that was so close to providing something amazing, but didn't quite make it. The visuals don't match the actual conditions if that makes sense. Not a moan, just an observation. 

[Scott Ingham]

@chionomaniac

Look at the slowing down of that low pressure in the atlantic at 264 hours.

That is the first sign of the ever slowing and easterly turning zonal winds.

Thoughts?

It goes from this 

 

To this!

Westerlies are dead!!

Edited January 2, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, Ventnor Viking said:

Looking at the lastest models runs, still so much uncertainty  between all models. Looking at the general pattern, temps and upper air, it looks like there will colder conditions around (compared to most recent winters) but it feels like this winter will be the one that was so close to providing something amazing, but didn't quite make it. The visuals don't match the actual conditions if that makes sense. Not a moan, just an observation. 

It’s only the 2nd of January. V V.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[bluearmy]

The NH profiles on gfs/gfsp by day 7/8 are far closer to what we would expect post ssw and with slack lower strat flow ....bits of vortex are moving v slowly or just not really at all and both develop arctic highs 

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@chionomaniac

Look at the slowing down of that low pressure in the atlantic at 264 hours.

That is the first sign of the ever slowing and easterly turning zonal winds.

Thoughts?

It's more or less stationary 216h onwards.

[Ventnor Viking]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

It’s only the 2nd of January. V V.

That it is, however everything is always modelled 7-10 days away with not much in the way of real significant cold. The easterlies are not that cold and the northerly cold is moderated significantly  on its way down. Just a strong hunch. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@chionomaniac

Look at the slowing down of that low pressure in the atlantic at 264 hours.

That is the first sign of the ever slowing and easterly turning zonal winds.

Thoughts?

If that extends across into the U.K. then it’s v reminiscent of a snow event from a few years back .... not sure it has the oomph to make it this far though .....

[Harsh Climate]

6 minutes ago, Ventnor Viking said:

Looking at the lastest models runs, still so much uncertainty  between all models. Looking at the general pattern, temps and upper air, it looks like there will colder conditions around (compared to most recent winters) but it feels like this winter will be the one that was so close to providing something amazing, but didn't quite make it. The visuals don't match the actual conditions if that makes sense. Not a moan, just an observation. 

lol it's only the 2nd january and you are basically writing this winter off!  

This cold spell far from finished and we are lucky to have such a promising set-up this early in winter, with a SSW event to come! 

We have 3 months where extreme winter conditions can occur so plenty of time to see something. And I don't want to hear about but it's too late in the winter to get good propper snow in march because march 2013/14 was one of the coldest ever in places, with a ton of snow at leeds bradford airport that lasted weeks, at least a week un melted. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, bluearmy said:

If that extends across into the U.K. then it’s v reminiscent of a snow event from a few years back .... not sure it has the oomph to make it this far though .....

I cant remember the year buddy but i know what you mean!

I dont think it will make it that far either but shows the sorts of options on the table

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@chionomaniac

Look at the slowing down of that low pressure in the atlantic at 264 hours.

That is the first sign of the ever slowing and easterly turning zonal winds.

Thoughts?

Compare the length of time it’s taking that system to drop se on the gfsp ....60 hours and counting by T210.  we’ve twice seen lows deepen dramatically and drop within 24 hours in December. 

[ICE COLD]

Well I’m just glad the gfs has dropped the pressure rise from the south in FI . Was starting to worry on the last 3 or 4 runs . 

Todays 12z o

yesterdays 12z for same time 

Today is a lot better and what you would expect with whats going on up top

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice "O" block there on the gfs,if we can get that trough to disrupt further SE in subsequent runs and close that high off then there would be fun and games

second that,...it is doing what i am asking

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, booferking said:

So its gfs para gem v ukmo.

Can add the gfs mean to growing odds against ukmo.

[Griff]

Just for fun on GFSP 222, low taking an eternity to drop but look at 850s to the east...