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Model output discussion - Into 2021


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some wild swings in the outputs post day 6 . 

Scarcely believable change from the ECM from last nights 12hrs run so clearly drawing concrete conclusions as to which evolution is correct seems a bit premature .

Sometimes the models are unable to handle all the background noise as in the SSW . 

I see nothing to be overly concerned about this morning from a coldies perspective.

I think we need a few more days to see what the real impact of the SSW will be.

Correct 

Still no concerns from me about needing to wait for the next cold spell. Ensemble support or not.

Seen it all before during a ssw. 

120 hours and no further is always wise in periods of volatitlity.

Nothing to be concerned about and the GfsP with its 100+ strat layers unsurprisingly the best model this morning

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Why Forecasting snow more than 48 hrs away is futile on this Island. Especially when we build a cold pool. 

 

Screenshot_20210102_083158.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Why Forecasting snow more than 48 hrs away is futile on this Island. Especially when we build a cold pool. 

 

Screenshot_20210102_083158.jpg

Is this the mild dry easterly the BBC mentioned?

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
22 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Nice // today along with UKMO

anim_tbz9.gif

Yes, loving the Parallel this morning. As others have mentioned, along with the UKMO it has been one of the more consistent models. Past 144 or even 120 always increases uncertainty, especially at the moment. But if the GfsP 0z comes off, I’ll be a happy coldie.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
9 hours ago, Uncertainy said:

It’s been there for days Feb 

image.thumb.gif.27003df388948e86bfb73204708bbdb9.gif

image.thumb.png.9e1e815970742efb4ec98dc5d0382373.png
MJO headed to phase 2 and corresponding Nina Jan composite...


Also CP Nina going forward looking likely and SSW interference might make a passage to the WP with good amplitude really tough...

So yes there’s evidence for a westerly spell in the medium term, but most suites go for a later split so I’m going for a week tops of SW guff then lift off.

Something like this perhaps?

image.thumb.png.b59f2be7d367f1ddec41f8e43918ba2f.png

This is the average at 240h. Seems to be more or less in line with the MJO phase 2.

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Griff said:

Para is fine, go chill in the snaw....

gfsnh-0-144 (17).png

gfsnh-0-180 (7).png

gfsnh-0-240 (4).png

gfsnh-0-384.png

gfsnh-1-144 (5).png

gfsnh-1-180 (4).png

gfsnh-1-240 (2).png

gfsnh-1-384 (1).png

 

26 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Nice // today along with UKMO

anim_tbz9.gif

 

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve decided to ignore the other models () and concentrate on the GEM and GFSp this morning ❄️??‍♂️

7E403EE1-033E-4F46-97FB-FB81FB32BCDB.png

5F250949-0A51-4408-B005-0D81768A4ED6.png

A74A8151-D0D0-4EE1-8774-9C7DA85481F5.png

B50C8139-2004-41A1-B99D-FA47EF5D1F4A.png

6E15857F-21AC-4F7E-86C0-06FE87082AF0.png

 

3 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Yes, loving the Parallel this morning. As others have mentioned, along with the UKMO it has been one of the more consistent models. Past 144 or even 120 always increases uncertainty, especially at the moment. But if the GfsP 0z comes off, I’ll be a happy coldie.

Trying to keep an open mind, but does anyone have a valid reason why the GFSP should be discredited? 

Run on run far more consistent, and yes I'm totally aware of confirmation bias, as I know what I'm hoping to see. 

Just an observation over the last week, but following the 'legacy' GFS () causes frustration in the morning with whooping and high fives come the pub run. It seems a bit prone to swings?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Griff said:

 

 

 

Trying to keep an open mind, but does anyone have a valid reason why the GFSP should be discredited? 

Run on run far more consistent, and yes I'm totally aware of confirmation bias, as I know what I'm hoping to see. 

Just an observation over the last week, but following the 'legacy' GFS () causes frustration in the morning with whooping and high fives come the pub run. It seems a bit prone to swings?

Was just pondering this Griff. Not sure over the model stats but I think it was upgraded 

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Why Forecasting snow more than 48 hrs away is futile on this Island. Especially when we build a cold pool. 

 

Screenshot_20210102_083158.jpg

Yeah I can confirm we have lying snow here in Gateshead NE England.

Looking at the models hopefully more snow chances later this week.

UKMO has been steady the past couple of weeks and the BBC were hinting that we may see an extended cold spell on the weather yesterday.

40495450-F16F-41BB-AD1C-212D80ED0045.jpeg

Edited by Snow White
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I thought that snow/sleet was forecast for ne England today ? Moving ssw ....

That’s facetious .......

can anyone find the donkey ?  I have a tail but no sign of a bloody donkey !  We usually at least have a donkey ...... these runs feel like someone stole the donkey ...... no chance of making a reasoned prediction. 
 

as far as the ens output for mid jan is concerned, it certainly looks like a flatter spell but I would be giving the models a couple more days to get to grips with the reversal which has now started up top. 

The snow in the north east was forecasted from ecm anyway!!!!at least we have turned more snowy next week if there is any precipitation that is!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Was just pondering this Griff. Not sure over the model stats but I think it was upgraded 

I think someone posted the stats a few days ago and it was a little bit higher in terms of verification for the NH than the GFS in use now, but still behind the ECM, as others have said it should be better at modelling the stratosphere, which could be critical now.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think someone posted the stats a few days ago and it was a little bit higher in terms of verification for the NH than the GFS in use now, but still behind the ECM, as others have said it should be better at modelling the stratosphere, which could be critical now.

Extra resolution and never tested with a SSW, could make for interesting yet possibly disappointing times ahead, but who knows? 

That said, did the current GFS exist in 2018, was it even the parallel back then? I'm not sure it was. 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)


Why has everybody suddenly decided in the last few days that the GFS-P is the favourite model after it barely being talked about this winter, is it because it shows the Synoptics you want to see...?  
 

GFS-P might well be more consistent, but is it accurate I think is more the point?   


 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Extra resolution and never tested with a SSW, could make for interesting yet possibly disappointing times ahead, but who knows? 

That said, did the current GFS exist in 2018, was it even the parallel back then? I'm not sure it was. 

Don’t believe it was 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
23 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

 

 

Trying to keep an open mind, but does anyone have a valid reason why the GFSP should be discredited? 

Run on run far more consistent, and yes I'm totally aware of confirmation bias, as I know what I'm hoping to see. 

Just an observation over the last week, but following the 'legacy' GFS () causes frustration in the morning with whooping and high fives come the pub run. It seems a bit prone to swings?

 

4 minutes ago, Beanz said:


Why has everybody suddenly decided in the last few days that the GFS-P is the favourite model after it barely being talked about this winter, is it because it shows the Synoptics you want to see...?  
 

GFS-P might well be more consistent, but is it accurate I think is more the point?   


 

 

You've answered your own question by rephrasing my initial posting. Yes, exactly. It's showing what I would like to see, verbatim. 

It's destined to replace the current, so you tell me? 

Edit: and I appreciate this is taking the thread on a tangent and runs the risk of hijacking, not intending to be controversial, but worth a thought whilst waiting for 6z?

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon at 120 - just don't get to see the key timeframe!

Looks more ukmo than ECM though, heights increasing over scandi.

 

iconnh-0-120 (7).png

I would say somewhere inbetween ecm and ukmo!!!!which aint a bad thing!!does it look better than the 126 hour 00z chart though?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The snow in the north east was forecasted from ecm anyway!!!!at least we have turned more snowy next week if there is any precipitation that is!!!

It was forecast much later but hey what do I know if we're being picky

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

You've answered your own question by rephrasing my initial posting. Yes, exactly. It's showing what I would like to see, verbatim. 

It's destined to replace the current, so you tell me? 

Well at least you’re honest!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

I would say somewhere inbetween ecm and ukmo!!!!which aint a bad thing!!does it look better than the 126 hour 00z chart though?

Yes good call probably a half way house.. it is better than its 00z run.

You can see the low is boxed in by a developing arctic high, the Greenland high and the developing scandi high.

So it can only go south is my logic?

 

Screenshot_20210102-092805.png

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I thought that snow/sleet was forecast for ne England today ? Moving ssw ....

That’s facetious .......

can anyone find the donkey ?  I have a tail but no sign of a bloody donkey !  We usually at least have a donkey ...... these runs feel like someone stole the donkey ...... no chance of making a reasoned prediction. 
 

as far as the ens output for mid jan is concerned, it certainly looks like a flatter spell but I would be giving the models a couple more days to get to grips with the reversal which has now started up top. 

What do you think of the GEM, blue? 

Apparently it verifies better than the GFS and it has produced the same run it did on it's 12hr yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon at 120 - just don't get to see the key timeframe!

Looks more ukmo than ECM though, heights increasing over scandi.

 

iconnh-0-120 (7).png

Yup looks better than the 00z for same timeframe!!also are we starting to develop a scandi high as well !!!!maybe we our focus should be the heights across norway rather than just the greenland area!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

What do you think of the GEM, blue? 

Apparently it verifies better than the GFS and it has produced the same run it did on it's 12hr yesterday.

I think no more of it than any model at the moment ..... just cos it shows a wintry solution gives it no more credence than any of the others. Continuity is usually good but not necessarily at this time .....

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