Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Kasim Awan]

240 is a snow party

[Harsh Climate]

9/10?

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ha no sense of humour..

216 ECM crucially shows residual heights over greenland which is very important in sustaining the cold spell  > which is somewhat expected given the eastward momentum is rapidly decelerating...

The irony.... 

Anyway, I think we need that Russian high to hang on as long as possible to let the low sink further and give us a cracking cold easterly feed 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Snowstorm for Wales / Midlands at 240...

Southwest members are going to be gutted!

Great run overall though

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

240 is a snow party

Not for the south with uppers between 0 and 2. But for us on the northern side of the low certainly is 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The profile Iceland to Newfoundland on the EC12z op is exceptional and certainly more immobilized to a breakdown than the GFS12Z para. This combined with strong cold pooling is a great recipie.

Best run of the winter for me.

No energy left in america. Easterlies soon to kick in after.

Cold pool UK eastwards will only stagnate and get colder and colder.

If the vortex does get chucked over the north sea the extra energy will only create more snowfall before the coldest period of winter end of january and february (signposted since the 3rd of December) kickd in

[IW Met]

Just now, Island Visions said:

Yes that frame but the trend on GFS and ECM is to drop heights a little further north and the short-med term trend isnt as good as it was. That said if it fdrops that bit more south then a good portion of UK could get a proper blast, but the southern half likely missing out.

 

....and there it is  although to be fair anything past 96 hours is so uncertain at the moment. Its nice to have a fantasy though

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Island Visions said:

Thats going to go bad if cold is whats wanted , soon to see shortwaves rippling east in atlantic.
If it can head a touch further south though then we may be in with a shot.

 

 

Having the vortex situated over Canada only serves to ramp up the jet stream,having it over Greenland will prevent Heights from building full stop...Trust me this is a good set up,and the warming event will only serve to increase our -NAO signature..Its amazing to see these synoptics in January,and you certainly shouldn't be getting down hearted by it.

Edited January 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is close to something major....the big B.....the movement to get to this I’d anticipate an Easterly of Deep cold to follow

And here she comes...crystal ball 

t264....

re the above charts, the movement would produce a monumental cold easterly....this would be a 20 th century great matcher....Hp in Urals linking with HP southern half Greenland with southward moving trough over UK...perfection
 

BFTP

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Not for the south with uppers between 0 and 2. But for us further north certainly is lol

It's a classic 70s/80s snow storm M4 corridor

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snowstorm for Wales / Midlands at 240...

Then back into the freezer ?

[Ali1977]

When did we actually have a proper snow storm like this chart could produce , 15 foot drifts etc - 1963 style? 
I’m not for one minute thinking this will actually happen, just wondering. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

240, exactly, my location buried, not excited

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Not for the south with uppers between 0 and 2. But for us on the northern side of the low certainly is 

You know the rules..... everything trends south........ 

[SLEETY]

Ties s in with met longer range forecast slightly milder in South mid month,then those bitter easterlies taking control after with snow risk increasing.Excellent ECM

[snowice]

Dream  time only 240 to go

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by snowice

[bobbydog]

Hold your horses, nearly there...

If the centre of that low keeps heading ESE, everyone is in the game...

 

[Ventnor Viking]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

240 is a snow party

Not for the south of the midlands its not  if you are referring to the ECM. The north of England, especially the high ground and especially Scotland, maybe. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snowstorm for Wales / Midlands at 240...

Moving South

BFTP

[Djdazzle]

Pointless arguing about a 240 chart which has zero chance of verifying.

Overall a good ECM although it looked dicey around 144-168!

Edited January 1, 2021 by Djdazzle

[SMU]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Moving South

BFTP

Just waiting for WX charts to update

Interesting to see how far south the snow is on the eastern flank

Maybe some imaginary 20-30cm snow depths by then

[Scott Ingham]

At 240 that is what i mean about the ssw and polar high pressure creating more snow before we get really cold after.

Its how we avoid a nationwide mild blip and extend the cold there after.

If you want long term cold you need something like this ti develop a large pool of low cold heights over the UK and Europer b4 the ssw temporarily pushes some of the vortex west of us

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for WX charts to update

Interesting to see how far south the snow is on the eastern flank

Maybe some imaginary 20-30cm snow depths by then

Imaginary snow is all we have to cling on to down here, Steve

[Tim Bland]

All the ingredients are there for a classic. Those south of the M4 - don’t fret the detail, these things almost always trend south ...

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for WX charts to update

Interesting to see how far south the snow is on the eastern flank

Maybe some imaginary 20-30cm snow depths by then

Surely more concerning regards to the ECM 12z is the lack of snow long before that. +48 to +120 there is very little. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by MKN