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Model output discussion - Into 2021


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Should drop, but it's making a meal of it

168

 

ECMOPEU12_168_1 (2).png

Its not its moved to Steves call of more influence from the East.

Better for long term prospects this way imo. Will increase chances of -NAO being more east based come the end of the run

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets see how the UK can pull mild out the bag from this chart...

Im sure we will try!

51EC07F4-4742-46FD-B25B-217FACDDE0B8.thumb.gif.d76241f4bc9a16a19469a4ff2670c608.gif

It’s a cold Pincer move from the north and north east... with the meeting point over uk.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As said its not going to drop....

Look at the nose...

Look south for the squeeze up for energy flushing the continental cold WSW

 

DAF28C94-7F6A-492B-9F61-9F56161ADC0C.thumb.png.4abf65d21db6442a88dc53cf2e8c0c34.png

Just don't write "Kent" on it again... 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its not its moved to Steves call of more influence from the East.

Better for long term prospects this way imo. Will increase chances of -NAO being more east based come the end of the run

I still prefer the para run, as it does drop more energy if not the low itself and keeps robust Greenland heights. Let's see where ECM goes though

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Exactly. We go cold whichever way it turns out.

Excellent example between T120 and T168 of how quickly things can cool down to the east in these conditions - look at how those uppers turn 

Screenshot_20210101-183932.thumb.png.6ee0c6182a8accdf096202734df05d68.png

Screenshot_20210101-183922.thumb.png.0996370d34cea36f3f378d89c0a7556e.png

 

Yep cold pooling! The longer we promote an easterly wind the more this will cool.

I like this ecm run for longevity of cold 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I still prefer the para run, as it does drop more energy if not the low itself and keeps robust Greenland heights. Let's see where ECM goes though

No you want the ecm mate trust me. Greenland heights arent the be all they will be back. Thia locks in the cold. See what chio and steve have to say. On the same lines

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

How close are ECM 192 and GFS 192

image.thumb.png.d07f327a87d67b917241ab030abfb7ad.png

image.thumb.png.54aad9b20e2aa1a12a4d7debfc325c12.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Personally I think that this a great run. As steve says the UK will try and find the mildest solution, but all I can see is a fantastic opportunity for proper cold

It behaved

21458915-5F1C-4A99-83D0-1815FD80F530.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Looks like I was wrong about the topple - lovely run but I expect Nick Sussex will say it is riddled with potential pitfalls!

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8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Way hay...look at ECM 192...Absolutely no Vortex over Canada or Greenland..ladies and Gentlemen....the vortex as left the building...any further East and it will be leaving the chart...Absolutely love these synoptics.

ECH1-192.gif

Thats going to go bad if cold is whats wanted , soon to see shortwaves rippling east in atlantic.
If it can head a touch further south though then we may be in with a shot.

 

 

Edited by Island Visions
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3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Just don't write "Kent" on it again... 

Ha no sense of humour..

216 ECM crucially shows residual heights over greenland which is very important in sustaining the cold spell  > which is somewhat expected given the eastward momentum is rapidly decelerating...

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Awesome charts , those cold 850s aren’t going anywhere fast

91EC0BAC-4C27-4ADF-BE77-956699D4449B.png

E3A1F45D-BC43-4739-A9E0-D7C2AFE263CE.png

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4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

No you want the ecm mate trust me. Greenland heights arent the be all they will be back. Thia locks in the cold. See what chio and steve have to say. On the same lines

The profile Iceland to Newfoundland on the EC12z op is exceptional and certainly more immobilized to a breakdown than the GFS12Z para. This combined with strong cold pooling is a great recipie.

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, UKSupercell said:

Where is everyone getting these charts....link? 

meteociel.fr

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
2 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Where is everyone getting these charts....link? 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Wow just look at the top.. if ECM is playing in SSW effects and coming up with this we really will unlucky.. artic heights forming? As the vortex is kicked to the other side.. synoptic wise at a global level it truly is sight to behold for early January...

now.. will you kindly land nicely for little ole coldies on netweather please..

image.thumb.png.61313c04ae13c3045d5867fde65aaa23.png

 

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Just now, Frosty Winter said:

Look at the next frame.

2239EDA2-671D-4DC6-952C-E9D0C0549B56.png

Yes that frame but the trend on GFS and ECM is to drop heights a little further north and the short-med term trend isnt as good as it was. That said if it fdrops that bit more south then a good portion of UK could get a proper blast, but the southern half likely missing out.

 

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