Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Anthony Burden]

Met office has placed their bet on slightly less cold with rain around mid month.

possibly Icelandic low dropping south more to the west of us bringing Atlantic influence.

still very speculative.Let’s see what ECM has to offer,also cold with snow returning later in month

possibly SSW driven.We shall be watching eagerly which way the wind is blowing.

 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, danm said:

A quick thaw of frozen pipes before the next freeze arrives, all good

Could be, although op was one of the mildest at the end so could be a short intermission ....

[Don]

1 minute ago, Kiwi said:

At least atlantic systems shouldn't throw a spanner in the works!

 

Now, that is nice to see! 

[winterof79]

30 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Anyone else excited about what the ECM may show?

Well it will either be the biggest backtrack in the history of the world since history began...or lots of snow chances...

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment removed

[Don]

22 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Well it will either be the biggest bactrack in the history of the world since history began...or lots of snow chances...

 

I think it did that in December 2012, didn't it?

Edited January 1, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Very similar synoptically the GFs and GFSp main difference is on the Para the low slips south to the west and the subsequent Easterly is stinger. GFS is snowier in the shorter term, GFSp delivers in the end with a powerful easterly... Win Win ? ️

The big thing for me is the large pool of low heights and cold on the continent to finally pull in air without marginality!

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Well it will either be the biggest backtrack in the history of the world since history began...or lots of snow chances...

If it shows a bartlett make yourself scarce Eskimo .

Don't shoot the messenger, Winter. Also don't say that name! 

Steady as she goes on the latest ECM.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Eskimo

[Jason M]

22 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Well it will either be the biggest bactrack in the history of the world since history began...or lots of snow chances...

 

Won't be the dreaded 'B' word but don't rule out a temporary rise in pressure over Iberia and an interlude of Sw'lys. Its been a cluster amongst the GEFS for the last couple of days and has been steadily working its way through the timescales. 

That said, its just one cluster and is too far out to worry about at this point, especially as the main opp's can't agree at day 6 tonight! 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment moved from inside quote box.

[Battleground Snow]

ECM at 96

Cold uppers in line with Ukmo.

Nice heights into Greenland too, now it's time to see where that infamous low goes.

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes - more like sheared energy moving south as opposed to a big low pressure.

Like UKMO...NE to Easterly to follow from t144

 

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

So far so good

[Harsh Climate]

ECM has  -7 uppers with occasional -8 tuesday, good but would like colder

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM has  -7 uppers with occasional -8 tuesday, good but would like colder

may be enough, needs to be ideally -10 to be sure for convective

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM has  -7 uppers with occasional -8 tuesday, good but would like colder

I think every chance.  Supposed to be 3c here today...didn’t get above 1c

 

BFTP

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM has  -7 uppers with occasional -8 tuesday, good but would like colder

ECM 1-2c warmer than UKM, but has come from forecasting -5c so room to manoeuvre towards Uk model...

[IanT]

23 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

What are the chances we'll be discussing a similar output in 24hours ? Given the volatility of the last 24 hours ? 

High. We’ve been discussing essentially the same output - snow in 7 to 10 days time - for weeks. Nothing in the charts to suggest that will change materially in 24h.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

may be enough, needs to be ideally -10 to be sure for convective

Look north east -10 incoming ...

Edited January 1, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Harsh Climate]

Well ECM 120 has  got rid of the milder feed wednesday. Pivotal frames coming up.

[Met4Cast]

Just now, IanT said:

High. We’ve been discussing essentially the same output - snow in 7 to 10 days time - for weeks. Nothing in the charts to suggest that will change materially in 24h.

Aside from the fact we've been seeing snow in the UK this past week. And tomorrow, and increasingly likely next week.. 

We're seeing small upgrades in the depth of cold for early next week, what initially looked like rain/sleet showers are now increasingly likely to be of snow coming in from the east. We're moving into streamer territory. A little cooler at the surface & it's game on for a lot of areas.

[danm]

1 minute ago, IanT said:

High. We’ve been discussing essentially the same output - snow in 7 to 10 days time - for weeks. Nothing in the charts to suggest that will change materially in 24h.

Hmm certain parts of the country have already had snow this week...

[SMU]

-10c 

Wheres it heading!??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

good EC away from GFS, snow surely for many

[Notty]

ECM 12z very different to 00z after Day 5 (not another 2012 please) 

[Scott Ingham]

45 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Do we think GFS // is showing the relaxation of cold mid month or has it just got lucky

It shows the potential for a chunk of the vortex to be shoved towards the UK via an arctic building high caused by the ssw and in the wrong set up could produce something like that if its sent too far west over the atlantic. But if greenland heights are being under played here this will be pushed into europe and only serve as an opportunity to cool down western europe and top up our cold pool to prolong this spell.

Im not convinced there will be a milder spell yet 

Especially not like that but its too far out to even know!

[Harsh Climate]

Not many comments on 144H ECM, think most people me included not sure what to make of it!

Edited January 1, 2021 by Harsh Climate