Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Paul]

A new thread for a new year and 2021 is getting off to a cold start. 

As is always the case, please keep it friendly in here. This thread is solely for discussing the models, so please don't use it for general banter, moans and ramps,  discussing tv / internet forecasts from the BBC, Met Office etc or 'will it snow' type localised weather chat. 

A few useful alternative threads are:

Winter chat and moans thread
Cold spell discussion
Regional weather chat

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

Happy New Year!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Slightly less cold uppers on the gfs out to 72h

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Slightly less cold uppers on the gfs out to 72h

Where you looking? Looking colder as the run progresses. Appreciate last two are past the time you stated.

Edited January 1, 2021 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Where you looking?

Just up to that range comparing to the 0z but seems to recover now

[Skullzrulerz]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Slightly less cold uppers on the gfs out to 72h

Where? Greenland

Looks pretty much the same if you compare the two together

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Where you looking?

GFS actually shows snow moving in at 90hrs.suspect a more ec run here with the high pulling away west on this 6z run. Hopefully

[That ECM]

Just now, swfc said:

GFS actually shows snow moving in at 90hrs.suspect a more ec run here with the high pulling away west on this 6z run. Hopefully

At T108 that is a big change

[Methuselah]

Well, if the 06Z is right (and I can't imagine it being too far wrong) the best thing to do will be to look out the window:

    

[ICE COLD]

Uppers look ok to me

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

At T108 that is a big change

Hows the uppers looking mate?any -8s in there like ecm and ukmo!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Uppers look ok to me

Midlands northward yes,to marginal in the southeast -6 uppers won't do it

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the uppers looking mate?any -8s in there like ecm and ukmo!!

Aye, the odd -9, further up in thread, E Mids area

[Griff]

Satisfactory at 126

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS actually shows snow moving in at 90hrs.suspect a more ec run here with the high pulling away west on this 6z run. Hopefully

Yes, more in the way of precip than ECM

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

At T108 that is a big change

If you look between the 0z/06z you can see a improvement regarding heights around the Atlantic and does seem to head into Greenland for a time 

Though sightly different timeframes 

[Man With Beard]

Morning all -

For all the chaos on the models D6 onwards, I noted something very interesting - the mean ECM temperatures.

The mean temperature for London stays below 3C between Wednesday 6th and Tuesday 12th

For the same time period, the mean temperature for Manchester stays below 1C

For Glasgow, the mean stays below 1C between Tuesday 5th and Wednesday 13th.

It's far from dry, too.

Taking this into account, you'd have to think a snow fest is highly likely for northern England and Scotland in the next 10 days, and even further south, probabilities are slightly in favour of snow events too.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, ribster said:

Think you need to go to specsavers mate, or gen up on your geography.

So there isn't -6 showing in the southeast?

[radiohead]

This doesn't seem to be going the way of the ECM...

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

If you look between the 0z/06z you can see a improvement regarding heights around the Atlantic and does seem to head into Greenland for a time 

Though sightly different timeframes 

Think it’s going to sink. Not for me.

[IDO]

GFS 06z similar to 0z with the trough not dropping at d6:

06z> 0z>

New trend or entropy?

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Satisfactory at 126

May need the troops moving South but cold should become home grown and to the east. OK this run. Edit. Excellent at the 160 hrs mark 850s dropping South and east

Edited January 1, 2021 by swfc

[SMU]

Morning

Looking at the 24 hour trends the chances of that northerly rapidly diminishing to be replaced from the ever deepening cold in the East...

[Lukesluckybunch]

Hi Steve happy New year,is this a good thing?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Hi Steve happy New year,is this a good thing?

I'm watching that low over the med see how it track's,crucial hopefully just moves eastwards

[AFCBSNOW]

GFS cant map Zonal reversing as well as ECM I believe.  ECM is where I am holding my candle.