Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

[Penrith Snow]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Hi Andy, showers have crossed the Pennine divide, current radar shows moderate precipitation in the Kirkby Stephen to Tebay location, and showers made it through S Cumbria an hour or two ago. The wind is strong and will easily shift showers our way, wind direction is ENE - even better for Cumbria. Might just be light and shortlived through daylight hours, but possibly heavier through the evening.

Hi, yes despite the miserable MetO refusing to extend the snow warning to Cumbria showers are making it across the Pennines easily, we had 20 mins of snow this morning which left a good dusting.

I am now fairly confident that any snow showers that hit NE England will make it across the Pennines, interestingly the BBC graphics clearly show northern England snow showers making it all the way to the Irish Sea and that is basedon the ECM model.

Fingers crossed mate.

Andy

[Chris Smith]

Raining now, here at the 100m contour. Cracking beast so far!

[Snowmaggedon]

2 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Seems same everywhere - just got the Spurs match on saying they were worried about potential snow but have only had a flurry 

Nick, you can come out now they’ve had nothing noteworthy down South just like us.

[rdt123]

3 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Nick, you can come out now they’ve had nothing noteworthy down South just like us.

Lol

[Chris.]

It must all be waiting at day 10 hahaha

[Cloud 10]

Sat. picture shows the better convection zone approaching slowly from the NE.

[Freezing-Point]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Sat. picture shows the better convection zone approaching slowly from the NE.

Full on streamers in that zone.   Taking a long time to move....

[Gizzy]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Sat. picture shows the better convection zone approaching slowly from the NE.

Oh ?? When will that arrive with us then.

[NickR]

7 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Nick, you can come out now they’ve had nothing noteworthy down South just like us.

I'm afraid that's reverse cherry-picking from some on here.

I've got reports - and pics - of 10-15cm already.

As for people saying the meto/bbc never really had anything heavy down for us for today... seems like we've forgotten how we were all rubbishing the BBC as not knowing what it was talking about with its forecasts. Fair enough, we might have a cracking next few days, but there's a lot of rewriting of history in here of  people making out we never expected anything until Sunday night anyway, when we clearly did.

[Gizzy]

2 minutes ago, NickR said:

I'm afraid that's reverse cherry-picking from some on here.

I've got reports - and pics - of 10-15cm already.

As for people saying the meto/bbc never really had anything heavy down for us for today... seems like we've forgotten how we were all rubbishing the BBC as not knowing what it was talking about with its forecasts. Fair enough, we might have a cracking next few days, but there's a lot of rewriting of history in here of  people making out we never expected anything until Sunday night anyway, when we clearly did.

To be fair Nick , you are right, the BBC forecast was spot on for last night and this morning , let's hope that trend continues as they have heavy snow for us from 11pm tonight to 12 noon tomorrow with snow in all the other timeslots.

[Freezing-Point]

1 minute ago, Gizzy said:

To be fair Nick , you are right, the BBC forecast was spot on for last night and this morning , let's hope that trend continues as they have heavy snow for us from 11pm tonight to 12 noon tomorrow with snow in all the other timeslots.

They might be right so far.... but these set ups are notoriously difficult to predict snowfall.  Especially from convective showers.   Thats why radar/lamppost is the way to go

[P-M]

9 minutes ago, NickR said:

I'm afraid that's reverse cherry-picking from some on here.

I've got reports - and pics - of 10-15cm already.

As for people saying the meto/bbc never really had anything heavy down for us for today... seems like we've forgotten how we were all rubbishing the BBC as not knowing what it was talking about with its forecasts. Fair enough, we might have a cracking next few days, but there's a lot of rewriting of history in here of  people making out we never expected anything until Sunday night anyway, when we clearly did.

Does it really matter? The weather will do what it does no matter who thinks what.  The atmosphere and conditions and forecasts are primed in favour for us so not sure what the negativity is about.  

So it's been pushed back a few hours we're still looking at a decent spell of weather. 

 

If by tomorrow it's like this then I'll join your wagon but for now I'd just enjoy the potential and excitement as this is what it's about.  

[garylaverick]

Some icicle formation on the edges of roof tiles here and the graupel is becoming larger and more intense. Keep the faith guys, look at the progress over just the last 3 hours, it's just a waiting game now.

[izi]

17 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Sat. picture shows the better convection zone approaching slowly from the NE.

Only if it starts moving our way, currently heading to scotland

[Continental Climate]

4 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

To be fair Nick , you are right, the BBC forecast was spot on for last night and this morning , let's hope that trend continues as they have heavy snow for us from 11pm tonight to 12 noon tomorrow with snow in all the other timeslots.

Really? Just checked the BBC for darlington and they have me as light flurries today and tomorrow then nothing for the rest of the week. 

Really beginning to think this will be a massive letdown. To think I told my ten year  old to expect 5-10 cm to last for at least 10 days. 

[rdt123]

I’ve been on here for fifteen years and have learned a few lessons. Most of the time when people on the mod thread say day after tomorrow and beeb say wintry showers the beeb turn out to be right. There are others like ‘the Atlantic won’t push through like that ‘ but it usually does. I’m not at all surprised so far and clearly the best is yet to come. I’m just saying that the bbc suggested rain until after midnight and it was , then very light squally showers which they have been. I think I maybe expected too much early on and they were right. Could be very interesting later and overnight though

[Gizzy]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

Really? Just checked the BBC for darlington and they have me as light flurries today and tomorrow then nothing for the rest of the week. 

Really beginning to think this will be a massive letdown. To think I told my ten year  old to expect 5-10 cm to last for at least 10 days. 

Not sure what Darlo is showing but definitely forecast heavy snow for where I am but as many have pointed out on here it is a case of wait and see, all still to play for.

[snowmackem]

3 hours ago, Steady Easterly said:

Battling not quite the word was it, wimpering more like.

Steady people, plenty of Mackems on here! Don't upset us, we are all around

[garylaverick]

5 minutes ago, izi said:

Only if it starts moving our way, currently heading to scotland

The flow will straighten to a straight easterly or ENE'ly as the low sinks through Germany.

Edited February 7, 2021 by garylaverick

[Gizzy]

2 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

I’ve been on here for fifteen years and have learned a few lessons. Most of the time when people on the mod thread say day after tomorrow and beeb say wintry showers the beeb turn out to be right. There are others like ‘the Atlantic won’t push through like that ‘ but it usually does. I’m not at all surprised so far and clearly the best is yet to come. I’m just saying that the bbc suggested rain until after midnight and it was , then very light squally showers which they have been. I think I maybe expected too much early on and they were right. Could be very interesting later and overnight though

To be fair RDT the Beeb are normally rubbish with their forecast, they did call it right this time for last night / this morning but their track record isn't the best.

[NickR]

4 minutes ago, P-M said:

Does it really matter? The weather will do what it does no matter who thinks what.  The atmosphere and conditions and forecasts are primed in favour for us so not sure what the negativity is about.  

So it's been pushed back a few hours we're still looking at a decent spell of weather. 

 

If by tomorrow it's like this then I'll join your wagon but for now I'd just enjoy the potential and excitement as this is what it's about.  

All I did was correct someone's claim about conditions elsewhere and point out that we seem to be saying we never expected anything until tonight, when we'd actually been rubbishing the BBC for forecasting nothing until tonight. That's not negativity, just trying to be objective about what's being said. Is that a bad wagon to be on?

[Continental Climate]

Just having another lovely graupel flurry in darlington now. 

[Rollo]

Strange isn’t it, we have cloud,low temperature in fact everything in place but there is still a reason why no snow falls, I still believe we will get our share but oh how I hate the wait.

[rdt123]

2 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

To be fair RDT the Beeb are normally rubbish with their forecast, they did call it right this time for last night / this morning but their track record isn't the best.

I think the short term is pretty

good , medium to long has been poor since they ditched the meto and Go from ecm only. When that’s against the other models they chicken up 

[Boro Snow]

2 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Just having another lovely graupel flurry in darlington now.