Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

[rdt123]

I’ve feeling we will do ok here in Teesside. Main frontal stuff will probably focus on the usual suspects of East Anglian, SE and midlands. Ours will be shower activity which over 5-6 days with little thaw could build up. I’m expecting 4-6 inches over the week with drifting and much more up in the Durham dales etc. that sound about right?

rob

[NickR]

I'm not entirely convinced. The models have been showing EA to get the best stuff for a while. I understand about convection here, but it's never a sure thing. The stuff further south is. They're in a much better position at this stage than we are.

[Polarwesterly]

I’ve never known such cold uppers not bring good snowfall to this area. The only time I’m not certain on was that spell at the end of March 2013. Did that spell produce much for this area?

[Rollo]

Actually it produced very little, so little our golf course stayed open most of the time but just to our north and south and west there was more than enough.

[Dahonis]

I'm not worried, ok a little. For sure we will get snow in our region, but that front has sunk a little too far for my liking. We still have a few days to go mind. 

[mathematician]

25 minutes ago, NickR said:

I'm not entirely convinced. The models have been showing EA to get the best stuff for a while. I understand about convection here, but it's never a sure thing. The stuff further south is. They're in a much better position at this stage than we are.

I agree ,the low is starting to move a tad too south for my liking. Hopefully it will be pushed up north...

 

As a rule of thumb in this situation the more the southerners complain in the main thread, the better for us

[garylaverick]

Look at the convergence in the flow from 72 to 120hrs on the latest fax. That's like a shot of nitrous in to the beasts intakes.

[Continental Climate]

Our snow in the NE will come mainly from snow showers and not organised fronts like it will down south. This may be frustrating for some but personally I love radar watching and being on here reading and giving commentary. I'm at work until 7.40pm on saturday in Middlesbrough then have a commute to darlington hopefully the snow holds off until I get back home. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Continental Climate

[Polarwesterly]

7 minutes ago, Rollo said:

Actually it produced very little, so little our golf course stayed open most of the time but just to our north and south and west there was more than enough.

Thanks. I suppose it can miss us then but low possibility 

[North East Blizzard]

29 minutes ago, NickR said:

I'm not entirely convinced. The models have been showing EA to get the best stuff for a while. I understand about convection here, but it's never a sure thing. The stuff further south is. They're in a much better position at this stage than we are.

I'd bet my house we'll do better than the South east. In my opinion that frontal snow isn't what we should be concentrating on, the quicker that shifts the better.

[Polarwesterly]

It’s not often you see these temperatures on the coast, biting wind too straight off the peer

[gazzac69]

Nice to see it busy on here this morning - the overnight model runs continue the excitement - its getting closer

[North East Blizzard]

Latest UKV has showers in by Sunday lunchtime, will be more frequent as the day profmgresses, don't want to post it, as I'm not subscribed to it, but it's on the main model discussion

[NickR]

I know I'm often the voice of doom and gloom, but the way this is going I can see ours being one of the regions with least snow. EA, SE, Mids will all get something really big. We'll have a couple of inches.

[NorthEastSnow]

Like others have said from experience these showers can pop out of no where, Usually resulting in amber warnings close to the time as they are so hard to predict. 

I do think things are looking good for all of us for once. As with showers though usual places will do better than others but I think we are all in for a fun weekend and beyond. 

[North East Blizzard]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

I know I'm often the voice of doom and gloom, but the way this is going I can see ours being one of the regions with least snow. EA, SE, Mids will all get something really big. We'll have a couple of inches.

I just don't see that tbh mate, if anything the largest accumalations are forecast in the Northeast, maybe less so nearer the coast

[Airedalejoe]

8 minutes ago, NickR said:

I know I'm often the voice of doom and gloom, but the way this is going I can see ours being one of the regions with least snow. EA, SE, Mids will all get something really big. We'll have a couple of inches.

Cheer up, the charts look excellent for us!

[Bridgeport Harrison]

That's it then big shop on Friday, load my log burner and watch it happen 

[seabreeze86]

30 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

I'd bet my house we'll do better than the South east. In my opinion that frontal snow isn't what we should be concentrating on, the quicker that shifts the better.

Exactly. Every single time without fail in these set ups the shower activity is underplayed no more so than in 2010. Happened daily back then. The northeast will be hammered all week . Fax charts already showing up convergence lines 

Edited February 4, 2021 by seabreeze86

[NorthEastSnow]

Nothing reminds me more of a freezing cold North East wind on a night where the moon lit sky shows all the bubbling snow clouds out to sea. 

Sit back and enjoy, this might be mine and Teesside's time for snow. 

[damianslaw]

37 minutes ago, mathematician said:

I agree ,the low is starting to move a tad too south for my liking. Hopefully it will be pushed up north...

 

As a rule of thumb in this situation the more the southerners complain in the main thread, the better for us

Which low are we are talking about, the current one which is heading through the region on Saturday? Further south and this should aid even more convection, so not sure what the concern is.. also less milder mixing.. more of a longer draw from the east rather than SE.

Think of the outlook as a thundery showery one in the summer  when predicting where the showers pop up is futile.

[Continental Climate]

I'm really looking forward to this event but if I could be a bit nit picky I would wish for slightly lower uppers just to beef up those showers. We are currently forecast to get down to around -10/11,which is excellent but how great would it be if we had a true beast with -16/17 uppers. We have -25 uppers over Western Russia currently just need to advect that westward. 

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, NorthEastSnow said:

Like others have said from experience these showers can pop out of no where, Usually resulting in amber warnings close to the time as they are so hard to predict. 

I do think things are looking good for all of us for once. As with showers though usual places will do better than others but I think we are all in for a fun weekend and beyond. 

As just said it's the equivalent of a thundery showery spell in summer. May well be alot of thunder snow!

[North East Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Which low are we are talking about, the current one which is heading through the region on Saturday? Further south and this should aid even more convection, so not sure what the concern is.. also less milder mixing.. more of a longer draw from the east rather than SE.

Think of the outlook as a thundery showery one in the summer  when predicting where the showers pop up is futile.

Exactly this

Edited February 4, 2021 by North East Blizzard

[seabreeze86]

The cold is upgrading with every run and now coming in slightly earlier. -10 uppers now arriving Saturday night