Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

[Penrith Snow]

35 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

This zone has been where the disappointment lies, showers lighter and fewer.

Tuesday night we see a better set up as the wind turns more northeasterly and a convergence zone moves through our region, basically the one thats in southern Scotland now.

Right, so all we have to do us wait yet another 24 hours?

On top of the 3 day wait since Friday afternoon which was originally the time snow would begin.

I won't hold my breath 

Andy

[P-M]

Just now, Phil Blake said:

But south of us and north of us are fine just sods law really 

Problem is without the instability you don't get the deep convection which in turn can create more disturbances in the flow. I think that's it anyway. 

 

On a positive note some more polystyrene falling now and looks like I've got a few showers incoming. 

[NickR]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

The skew charts TWS showed earlier. Needs to be unstable right up to 750mb we aren't there until about Wednesday. The final day of the snowmageddon forecast 

And this wasn't predicted when people were saying it would be Sunday day/Sunday night/Monday morning/Monday PM? Or was it there all along, but we all missed it while many forecast apps got it?

BTW I notice the continuing cold conditions and (genuinely) potent reload next week have now disappeared. Unless the end of Feb/very start of March can pull something out of the bag, this will be one of those awful events that everyone else down the East remembers as a great event. Could be a while before we get such apparently favourable synoptics again.

[Phil Blake]

Just now, Vee89 said:

Are these showers looking likely to hit where I am? 
I’m starting to think I’m getting it all wrong looking at the radar .. which is very possible lol. 

They should on their way to hop skipping and jumping over CSL

[Vee89]

Just now, Phil Blake said:

They should on their way to hop skipping and jumping over CSL

Thanks. Haha I hope not, keep my fingers crossed they reach you. 

[Phil Blake]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

And this wasn't predicted when people were saying it would be Sunday day/Sunday night/Monday morning/Monday PM? Or was it there all along, but we all missed it while many forecast apps got it?

BTW I notice the continuing cold conditions and (genuinely) potent reload next week have now disappeared. Unless the end of Feb/very start of March can pull something out of the bag, this will be one of those awful events that everyone else down the East remembers as a great event. Could be a while before we get such apparently favourable synoptics again.

Met office update today looks positive for us

Edited February 8, 2021 by Phil Blake

[P-M]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

And this wasn't predicted when people were saying it would be Sunday day/Sunday night/Monday morning/Monday PM? Or was it there all along, but we all missed it while many forecast apps got it?

BTW I notice the continuing cold conditions and (genuinely) potent reload next week have now disappeared. Unless the end of Feb/very start of March can pull something out of the bag, this will be one of those awful events that everyone else down the East remembers as a great event. Could be a while before we get such apparently favourable synoptics again.

I'm giving this chase up after Wednesday. Sainsburys have JD honey whiskey on offer I'm going to take that up instead 

[Freezing-Point]

8 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

I would love to know

 

9 minutes ago, NickR said:

But it can't just be luck. Something is preventing better shower formation. What is it?

This will be why... An LP crept up from the south.   By the end of that day there was 50cm in SE.  46cm longframlington and widely 30cm plus along the east coast.  

 

 

 

[NickR]

1 minute ago, Freezing-Point said:

 

This will be why... An LP crept up from the south.   By the end of that day there was 50cm in SE.  46cm longframlington and widely 30cm plus along the east coast.  

 

 

 

 But that was the low we all knew about and that several banged on about how once it cleared (Sunday), all would be right (white) in the NE, with showers bubbling up a-plenty. It did, but it wasn't, because they didn't. Why?

[P-M]

3 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Met office update today looks positive for us

I've just read it and it doesn't look that inspiring  to me mate? 

[Freezing-Point]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

 But that was the low we all knew about and that several banged on about how once it cleared (Sunday), all would be right (white) in the NE, with showers bubbling up a-plenty. It did, but it wasn't, because they didn't. Why?

It came further north, then slipped away easy dragging a NE'ly on us.  Slacker winds.  Remember the showers off that period where very heavy with huge flakes putting down 2" each if you got a direct hit.

[Phil Blake]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

I've just read it and it doesn't look that inspiring  to me mate? 

However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

[Smoggieontour]

2 minutes ago, NickR said:

 But that was the low we all knew about and that several banged on about how once it cleared (Sunday), all would be right (white) in the NE, with showers bubbling up a-plenty. It did, but it wasn't, because they didn't. Why?

That's a chart from 1991 Nick, he's explaining why it snowed so heavily that night.

People have already explained several times the reasons for the lack of snow over the last two days. Asking over and over again isn't going to change anything.

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

Here's hoping! 

[NickR]

1 minute ago, Smoggieontour said:

That's a chart from 1991 Nick, he's explaining why it snowed so heavily that night.

People have already explained several times the reasons for the lack of snow over the last two days. Asking over and over again isn't going to change anything.

I haven't seen the explanation as to why yesterday's prediction of everything kicking off properly this afternoon failed to come to fruition. (I'm not trying to be difficult, I genuinely haven't seen this - yesterday it was all about late today. Now we're talking about Wednesday.)

[Fairweather Teessider]

Well, it's all my fault. I shouldn't of told anyone!!

 

Think I'm going to give up ( it won't stop me giving a sneak peek at 5.30am though )

[P-M]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

I haven't seen the explanation as to why yesterday's prediction of everything kicking off properly this afternoon failed to come to fruition. (I'm not trying to be difficult, I genuinely haven't seen this - yesterday it was all about late today. Now we're talking about Wednesday.)

I don't know if the skew charts showed that but what I would say nick is even with a forecast it can and does wrong. 

To be fair there are snow showers out there and we've seen some white stuff it's just not been as expected and the excitement has worn off.  But on the main the easterly is here and it's Baltic out there.  

The weather will do what it does despite a forecast. 

[Chris Smith]

Parallel convergence lines will inevitably have parallel divergence lines between them where air is less unstable. Just bad luck if you get stuck under one of them.

[Smoggieontour]

2 minutes ago, NickR said:

I haven't seen the explanation as to why yesterday's prediction of everything kicking off properly this afternoon failed to come to fruition. (I'm not trying to be difficult, I genuinely haven't seen this - yesterday it was all about late today. Now we're talking about Wednesday.)

See PM's reply to you 20 minutes ago. TWS did a post earlier explaining this in more detail. Unfortunately sometimes these factors aren't always easy to predict in advance. That's part of what makes the snow hunt exciting.

[Freezing-Point]

2 minutes ago, NickR said:

I haven't seen the explanation as to why yesterday's prediction of everything kicking off properly this afternoon failed to come to fruition. (I'm not trying to be difficult, I genuinely haven't seen this - yesterday it was all about late today. Now we're talking about Wednesday.)

Think us in the mid belt just got unlucky.  Borders and N. Northumberland alway seem to do well though.  Must be something in it.

The luck might change, but synoptically, tomorrow night looks better when the winds shifts to NE

[Gizzy]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

I haven't seen the explanation as to why yesterday's prediction of everything kicking off properly this afternoon failed to come to fruition. (I'm not trying to be difficult, I genuinely haven't seen this - yesterday it was all about late today. Now we're talking about Wednesday.)

Nick, for gods sake man, we are just weather watchers, we all probably have our own unqualified theories as to what is going to happen weather wise but this is a forum for gods sake, if you take as gospel what people say / think / hope / predict on here then it's no wonder you are disappointed.

Go to bed man and see what you wake up to, don't know about the others but your doing my head in, we are all a little deflated by what hasn't been delivered against what we hoped / predicted / thought / said but at least the majority are being sensible about it.

[damianslaw]

Not much activity here all day, promising start awoke to a light skittering, but that was it. The showers that have made it here have evaporated and packed no punch whatsoever.

Tomorrow is another day..

 

[Boro Snow]

17 minutes ago, P-M said:

I'm giving this chase up after Wednesday. Sainsburys have JD honey whiskey on offer I'm going to take that up instead 

Thats a superb drink

[topsweep1506]

Here is the Skew-t sounding for today for Newcastle not to bad of a cap but it kept all the showers shallow

[Snooow]

Evening, made a brief foray into here back in 2018 when, as others have mentioned thanks to some discriminatory science, Newcastle's 'Beast from the East' turned into the sheep from Whitley Bay. 

I have been reading this thread with interest in the past few days - special mention to the perpetual, but now iconic, pessimism of NickR, who has once again proven that the worst thing about pessimists is they're usually bloody right. 

That being said Newcastle has done rather better in terms of convection tonight. And if all of us can say that this time tomorrow, we might be getting somewhere. If this shower activity continues roughly into Thursday morning, we're technically only 50% of the way through this...

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Snooow