Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

[northumberland snowman]

And so it begins, hoping for snow here from 3ish onwards. Just to put into perspective how promising this spell is looking ecm has us in minus 10 uppers (or below!!) From midnight tonight until a week on Saturday. Absolutely fab.

 

Latter stages of ecm also looking interesting let's put it like that.

 

Time to enjoy this cold spell

[Phil Blake]

6 minutes ago, Durham snowman said:

And so it begins, hoping for snow here from 3ish onwards. Just to put into perspective how promising this spell is looking ecm has us in minus 10 uppers (or below!!) From midnight tonight until a week on Saturday. Absolutely fab.

 

Latter stages of ecm also looking interesting let's put it like that.

 

Time to enjoy this cold spell

Even as the uppers slightly rise next weekend, surface temps will still be very cold and potential re load? 

[northumberland snowman]

Just now, Phil Blake said:

Even as the uppers slightly rise next weekend, surface temps will still be very cold and potential re load? 

It's certainly possible!! Great stuff

[Jarrow Posh]

GEM and ECM are definitely ones to watch with regards to a Scandi high forming into next weekend.If correct there is some extreme cold waiting out east if the alignment of that high is in our favour.Long way to go yet though.

Onto this weekend,anyone else a bit disappointed about the lack of shower activity being forecast for Sunday up here?Monday is looking better though.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jarrow Posh

[Tucka20]

5 minutes ago, Jarrow Posh said:

GEM and ECM are definitely ones to watch with regards to a Scandi high forming into next weekend.If correct there is some extreme cold waiting out east if the alignment of that high isin our favour.Long way to go yet though.

Onto this weekend,anyone else a bit disappointed about the lack of shower activity being forecast for Sunday up here?Monday is looking better though.

The forecast seems to have been watered down all week. Fingers crossed the wisdom of this group is right regarding convection being poorly forecast. 

[Phil Blake]

Regarding tomorrow I think the morning we could well be in a bit of a dryer slot before activity picks up towards the afternoon/evening. Monday and Tuesday looking good 

[gazzac69]

T-10 (6pm sat) - Overnight models are all showing the freeze lasting  well into next week for us

The main thread - some are getting excited about cold extensions, reloads etc, something else to look forward too for next weeks model watching

Lets all hope that we all get to see the fabled white stuff at lower levels lying starting later today fingers crossed

[gazzac69]

Looking at this mornings 00 GFS the -5C T850  isotherm is dropping thro the region around 3pm this afternoon, the -10C T850 comes thro around 3AM Sunday,

so a gradual decrease in temperatures from 3PM, I expect 1st snow reports at lower levels later this evening,

[snowmackem]

6 minutes ago, gazzac69 said:

Looking at this mornings 00 GFS the -5C T850  isotherm is dropping thro the region around 3pm this afternoon, the -10C T850 comes thro around 3AM Sunday,

so a gradual decrease in temperatures from 3PM, I expect 1st snow reports at lower levels later this evening,

Working in Prudhoe, live in Ryton. Finish work at 7, fully expecting to be driving home in falling snow with a light covering! Any more guesses?

[P-M]

6 hours ago, Formula_1_Fan said:

 

Not sure why F1 fan quote is still attached here i can't seem to get rid of it. 

 

But just wanted to ask....where has the forecast been watered down for the NE over the past week? 

 

I still think we're in the same position if not better for snow showers and a prolonging of the cold. To be fair we won't know until we see what happens as we radar watch but loads to be hopeful for IMO

[Mr McP]

Not long to go now, counting down the hours like an excited kid! As others have mentioned a possibility of the cold to be extended. 

[Phil Blake]

Icon is pretty much showing the shower activity in the north sea all the way from Sunday afternoon right through until Thursday morning. Of course it's showing them not getting past the coast but they will penetrate well Inland. Should be a good covering for most

[Rollo]

26 minutes ago, snowmackem said:

Working in Prudhoe, live in Ryton. Finish work at 7, fully expecting to be driving home in falling snow with a light covering! Any more guesses?

My guess is we will all be excited bunnies when we look out of the window tomorrow morning, how much snow will this week bring? That’s in the laps of the gods.

[Boro Snow]

Once again GFS looking increasingly isolated with its Atlantic breakdown

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I wonder how many of us will see this again?

What a day - had to walk 5 miles across snowfields to literally dig my dad out of his house...and take him some kit kats. 

[garylaverick]

Just a quick one to illustrate the current state of play.  We're waiting for the low to sink south (red arrow), which will pull down the area of precipitation currently over the east of Scotland (orange circle). This should be close by tea time,  and with the colder uppers arriving at the same time it will turn wintry, particularly over the hills but to all levels as we go through the night. 

Once this feature clears its all eyes to the satellite and radar for signs of the easterly flow establishing. Current sea temps are 6-7c, and with -10c uppers in place by tomorrow morning that's a differential of 16-17c. This should be more than enough to activate the snow machine. 

[P-M]

15 minutes ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

I wonder how many of us will see this again?

What a day - had to walk 5 miles across snowfields to literally dig my dad out of his house...and take him some kit kats. 

We can only dream! Great photo.  

[North East Blizzard]

Think Matt Hugo thinks what most of us are thinking and wanting to hear 

Edited February 6, 2021 by North East Blizzard

[damianslaw]

Hoping we might see some wet snow this eve but looking like most of the precipitation will be to the east.. 

Not expecting much shower activity to make it here tomorrow.

Monday and Tuesday look more promising, fingers crossed a convergence line or trough makes a beeline for here. 

[Phil Blake]

31 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

Just a quick one to illustrate the current state of play.  We're waiting for the low to sink south (red arrow), which will pull down the area of precipitation currently over the east of Scotland (orange circle). This should be close by tea time,  and with the colder uppers arriving at the same time it will turn wintry, particularly over the hills but to all levels as we go through the night. 

Once this feature clears its all eyes to the satellite and radar for signs of the easterly flow establishing. Current sea temps are 6-7c, and with -10c uppers in place by tomorrow morning that's a differential of 16-17c. This should be more than enough to activate the snow machine. 

I got shot down the other day in the mad thread for stating sea temps of 6 or 7c and apparently they are more like 5. Looks like 6s and 7s to me apart from a small patch of 5 and obviously slightly colder in the shallower waters near the coast

[North East Blizzard]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Hoping we might see some wet snow this eve but looking like most of the precipitation will be to the east.. 

Not expecting much shower activity to make it here tomorrow.

Monday and Tuesday look more promising, fingers crossed a convergence line or trough makes a beeline for here. 

Funny you should say that

 

[Phil Blake]

38 minutes ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

I wonder how many of us will see this again?

What a day - had to walk 5 miles across snowfields to literally dig my dad out of his house...and take him some kit kats. 

That's some serious drifting right there lol when was the pic taken?

[garylaverick]

3 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

I got shot down the other day in the mad thread for stating sea temps of 6 or 7c and apparently they are more like 5. Looks like 6s and 7s to me apart from a small patch of 5 and obviously slightly colder in the shallower waters near the coast

Definitely 6-7 in our neck of the woods!

[Phil Blake]

9 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

Definitely 6-7 in our neck of the woods!

Yep I even posted that chart lol. 

Models are underestimating convection as per

[Boro Snow]

Actually I am getting concerned now BBC showing no snow for me Sun to Wed