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Far north and northeast of England weather discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
1 hour ago, Smoggieontour said:

UKV shows a good rash of showers around the area already in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Screenshot_20210205-192112_Chrome.jpg

Can guarantee they'll be more intense and more widespread than that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)

While we wait for the 18Z WRF here's the 18Z ICON-EU out to 1am Tuesday. The last of the front looks to turn wintry to all levels as it moves away to the south during Saturday night, allowing the easterly feed to set in and convection to pick up. 

anim_ntc3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Whickham
  • Location: Whickham
1 minute ago, garylaverick said:

While we wait for the 18Z WRF here's the 18Z ICON-EU out to 1am Tuesday. The last of the front looks to turn wintry to all levels as it moves away to the south during Saturday night, allowing the easterly feed to set in and convection to pick up. 

anim_ntc3.gif

Being new to all of this, is there a reason all of the showers 'disappear' as they hit land? I'm guessing that won't happen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)
Just now, Tucka20 said:

Being new to all of this, is there a reason all of the showers 'disappear' as they hit land? I'm guessing that won't happen. 

I believe it's one of the flaws of the ICON model. If anything the showers tend to intensify as they come inland due to orographic lift.

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Posted
  • Location: Whickham
  • Location: Whickham
2 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

I believe it's one of the flaws of the ICON model. If anything the showers tend to intensify as they come inland due to orographic lift.

That's what I was hoping to hear  thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street

Listening to the forecaster from realweather and he mentions about the majority of high Res models showing the showers that disappear as they hit land and said they all struggle with the penetration of convective showers and he expects the showers to be beefy and move well Inland 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

Yep agree the ICON is shocking for showers coming inland in a easterly not sure why but surely it needs sorting, same with the arprege it is shocking turning rain to snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)

The bit that makes me laugh is it never shows showers coming inland, but the snow accumulation chart shows the biggest accumulations inland!

 

iconeu_uk1-45-81-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
7 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

The bit that makes me laugh is it never shows showers coming inland, but the snow accumulation chart shows the biggest accumulations inland!

 

iconeu_uk1-45-81-0.png

I don't ever look at any such maps. Off white patch in Lincolnshire why? NW Wales more snow than much of white Cumbria why? Why snow N Devon not central.. look at the radar that is the only map to view.

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)
  • Location: Gateshead NE10 (89m/292ft ASL)
2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I don't ever look at any such maps. Off white patch in Lincolnshire why? NW Wales more snow than much of white Cumbria why? Why snow N Devon not central.. look at the radar that is the only map to view.

Yep, always a lack of logic in these charts, only really useful to demonstrate the contradictions within the model.

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Posted
  • Location: Monkseaton , Whitley Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow, beast from the east
  • Location: Monkseaton , Whitley Bay
7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I don't ever look at any such maps. Off white patch in Lincolnshire why? NW Wales more snow than much of white Cumbria why? Why snow N Devon not central.. look at the radar that is the only map to view.

Agree look at NY moors, they will get loads more than what that’s showing 

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Latest me office forecast by John Hammond showed snow showers piling in on Sunday 

Actually it was Alex deaken I think 

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: Billingham on tees
  • Location: Billingham on tees
9 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Latest me office forecast by John Hammond showed snow showers piling in on Sunday 

I hope so 

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Posted
  • Location: Westmoor, Newcastle Upon Tyne (NE12)
  • Location: Westmoor, Newcastle Upon Tyne (NE12)

T-19 (6pm sat) - 06 GFS model is not letting us down, continues to show snow for us all the way to next Friday

GFS along with other models are starting to show the block putting up a big fight next Friday & upgrades could  start appearing in the models for a freeze extension - hope I'm right, I'm going to concentrate on radar/lamp post watching tomorrow evening onwards

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 hours ago, P-M said:

Can guarantee they'll be more intense and more widespread than that. 

Maybe but the thicknesses for Sunday do look a little high for my likening(which means the air is not the most unstable), I still reckon more Sunday night and into Monday daytime will be when the showers will be at their most heaviest and longest. 

Tuesday is more uncertain because recent runs has the winds more ESE'ly, still long enough sea track for convection but might not be as heavy as Monday. Reason why they are more ESE'ly is down to that low near SW England tilting the isobars that way, only take a slight change in positioning to be more easterly again so that's one to watch in the coming days. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

A good way of seeing where streamers form out at sea & where they will hit land is to use the old NW radar v4 & put the wind vectors on as they run along the vectors rather than contours

Screenshot_20210205-002051_Gallery.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

Is it safe to tell the family now

Already alot of activity North of the Border this evening

Screenshot_20210205-233910_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Northallerton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Events
  • Location: Northallerton, North Yorkshire
2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Maybe but the thicknesses for Sunday do look a little high for my likening(which means the air is not the most unstable), I still reckon more Sunday night and into Monday daytime will be when the showers will be at their most heaviest and longest. 

Tuesday is more uncertain because recent runs has the winds more ESE'ly, still long enough sea track for convection but might not be as heavy as Monday. Reason why they are more ESE'ly is down to that low near SW England tilting the isobars that way, only take a slight change in positioning to be more easterly again so that's one to watch in the coming days. 

 

I'm sure a few days ago corinthian or whatever he is called (the bloke in Austria), posted in the MOD thread about how the team that does his forecast see something more organised in the flow on Tuesday which would be good for us. It was a few days ago so obviously could have changed but his input is usually worth paying attention too. 

Also I'd like to say I've always loved Steve Murrs posts but he has never seemed to like people who reasonably argue against what he says. I feel like Tamara who's posts are amazing and always fully reasoned doesn't post so much in winter anymore because of Murr and his band of followers which is a shame. 

I know it's the Internet and you can be Jimmy Big Balls, but it's a decent forum and I'd expect better from a respected poster on here than to threaten to go to someone's  house and not buy them a pint just because they disagree with his views. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
4 hours ago, Formula_1_Fan said:

I'm sure a few days ago corinthian or whatever he is called (the bloke in Austria), posted in the MOD thread about how the team that does his forecast see something more organised in the flow on Tuesday which would be good for us. It was a few days ago so obviously could have changed but his input is usually worth paying attention too. 

Also I'd like to say I've always loved Steve Murrs posts but he has never seemed to like people who reasonably argue against what he says. I feel like Tamara who's posts are amazing and always fully reasoned doesn't post so much in winter anymore because of Murr and his band of followers which is a shame. 

I know it's the Internet and you can be Jimmy Big Balls, but it's a decent forum and I'd expect better from a respected poster on here than to threaten to go to someone's  house and not buy them a pint just because they disagree with his views. 

 

I must have missed all of that drama to be fair.  What happened like?

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Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street

Wow this morning's gem really is a gem. We never leave the cold spell and a scandi high then builds bringing the really cold uppers back in. 

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