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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl

    Only the elite are allowed in this public forum everybody 🤣

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    Hello Guys & Girls, First of all I just want to say a huge thank you to all of you for all the messages of support and the PM's you sent me, you are an ok bunch aren't you! So, thank you.

    Hi Guys & Girls,  A short message from me while I still have the energy, my Mrs & I are both in our early 40's with asthma, we have made every effort to protect ourselves from from this e

    Shades of Feb 1996' for the NW with the current output - elevation, uppers and frontal / streamer alignment appear in the favour of many eastern areas (e.g. E Cumbria pummelled), but sizeable amounts

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft

    There does seem to be a line of showers in the Irish Sea taking shape...maybe it's that streamer?  Fingers crossed for you all.  Either way I'm beat so off bed, way too far off to stay up for. 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat, thunderstorms and winter snow
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
    13 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

    There does seem to be a line of showers in the Irish Sea taking shape...maybe it's that streamer?  Fingers crossed for you all.  Either way I'm beat so off bed, way too far off to stay up for. 😂

    Same here currently v cold and foggy -2c here in S Cheshire some patches of snow cover left from yesterday despite afternoon sleety rain if we get a dusting of snow early hours/ tomorrow morning it’ll be a bonus ❄️☃️😊 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    -2 here also! Freezing

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    Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside

    Freezing fog. Might imply a slightly higher temp inversion somewhere but it's -2 at the surface now and very interestingly the wind flow is very slack, despite showers moving in from the North West. If any of them make it, they would be snow - I just suppose it depends on IF they generate. Very unusual though I'm struggling to think of a north westerly set up with such slack winds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    Euro4 18z.. bear in mind I rate this model quite highly in terms of resolvong streamers at close range. Has 5-10mm of precip by midday tomorrow from a few streamers. We know what the snow equivalent of that is. So this is potential, which may or not be expressed & depends on wind direction. Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the Wizard inn, Wilmslow / Congleton area, gets some more. 15cm there now which is very good for 180m. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    Just now, Kasim Awan said:

    I have to say the warm sector at 500ft to 1000ft is really scuppering this for many. If the uppers were 2C colder tonight would have good potential.

    Warm layer! I know it’s high up in the atmosphere, but I wasn’t expecting to have to use force to open my car door tonight. Freezing fog, temp now -3.1C!!!

     

    The whole of outside is frozen solid. Everywhere has rine and I’m slipping walking the dog!

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

    Warm layer! I know it’s high up in the atmosphere, but I wasn’t expecting to have to use force to open my car door tonight. Freezing fog, temp now -3.1C!!!

     

    The whole of outside is frozen solid. Everywhere has rine and I’m slipping walking the dog!

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    It's what's causing the fog. The "warm" layer is sinking into the cold air & so the water vapour condenses. It's horrible, however fingers crossed it is less prominent than modelled in the early hours.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    Just now, Kasim Awan said:

    It's what's causing the fog. The "warm" layer / colder surface contrast is sinking into the cold air & so the water vapour condenses. It's horrible, however fingers crossed it is less prominent than modelled in the early hours.

    Indeed. Tell you what, if we get any rain tonight it’s gonna cause more havoc than snow would. I’m struggling to walk, never mind drive!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
    6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

    Warm layer! I know it’s high up in the atmosphere, but I wasn’t expecting to have to use force to open my car door tonight. Freezing fog, temp now -3.1C!!!

     

    The whole of outside is frozen solid. Everywhere has rine and I’m slipping walking the dog!

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    0c here in Sale Cheshire.. been hoovering 0c for the last 2h...must be a warm layer up there, @Kasim Awan can we spect few showers making this way tomorrow morning? Perhaps 2cm looking looking optimistic:)

    Edited by raul_sbd
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    Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside

    Despite the warm layer, it's interesting that dew points are negative or below now, right unto the coast. There's a small area of showers on radar that I'm watching as they seem to be pepping up a bit over land - still very small though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    Just now, Mark88 said:

    Despite the warm layer, it's interesting that dew points are negative or below now, right unto the coast. There's a small area of showers on radar that I'm watching as they seem to be pepping up a bit over land - still very small though. 

    DP can’t ever be higher than the air temp, that’s why they’re all negative 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, raul_sbd said:

    0c here in Sale Cheshire.. must be a warm layer up there, @Kasim Awan can we spect few showers making this way tomorrow morning? Perhaps 2cm looking looking optimistic:)

    Showers soon, what they fall as is anyone’s guess. If it rains, like I say above, it’ll be a disaster for tomorrow morning 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
    1 minute ago, Mark88 said:

    Despite the warm layer, it's interesting that dew points are negative or below now, right unto the coast. There's a small area of showers on radar that I'm watching as they seem to be pepping up a bit over land - still very small though. 

    On the coast lot colder that inland here in Mcr.. interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
    Just now, Backtrack said:

    DP can’t ever be higher than the air temp, that’s why they’re all negative 

    I never knew that! It's like a skating ring outside here too by the way - ice is looking to to be the bigger hazard right now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    2 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

    Despite the warm layer, it's interesting that dew points are negative or below now, right unto the coast. There's a small area of showers on radar that I'm watching as they seem to be pepping up a bit over land - still very small though. 

    All irrelevant if there is a warm sector at height which melts the snowflakes. Freezing rain is a definate possibity but we don't tend to hear much in forecasts these days. 

    The NE had freezing rain a few nights ago under similar conditions. You could not make it up of having - 5 to - 6 uppers and slack winds and yet it still rains! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    7 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

    0c here in Sale Cheshire.. must be a warm layer up there, @Kasim Awan can we spect few showers making this way tomorrow morning? Perhaps 2cm looking looking optimistic:)

    The warm layer will properly get going once the showers kick in. With winds of 10mph I would suggest you are just about far east enough to get a few snow showers, if showers arrive.

    Infact even out to near coast could & then the inversion heads east. The "warm layer" is picked up over the Irish Sea as the sea warms the air*, as it heads inland it is forced over the dense cold surface air. It is eventually mixed out as it heads east.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The warm layer will properly get going once the showers kick in. With winds of 10mph I would suggest you are just about far east enough to get a few snow showers, if showers arrive.

    Infact even out to near coast could & then the inversion heads east. The "warm layer" is picked up over the Irish Sea as the sea warms the land, as it heads inland it is forced over the dense cold surface air. 

    Very informative posts Kasim!! Many Thanks for your contributions, I believe most of us on the NW regional will join me praising your great posts!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl

    I was wondering why it was only hovering around 0.5c here yet well below freezing closer to the coast 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, Dkeane3 said:

    I was wondering why it was only hovering around 0.5c here yet well below freezing closer to the coast 

    The coast will warm rapidly any minute :). This is related to the offshore breeze effect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
    2 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

    I was wondering why it was only hovering around 0.5c here yet well below freezing closer to the coast 

    Now seems to be going down -0.1c here from 0.3 just 20 min ago

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    My friend in Leyland has frozen wet snow. The "warm layer", which I will now refer to as the >0c layer, melted the snow to a wet snow. The water content then froze as it reached 100 metres asl. This creates an "icy snow". What an interesting weather phenomenon.

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    Edited by Kasim Awan
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