North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Chris.R]

-0.6°C currently so the 7th consecutive air frost. Apart from that nothing of interest here until Friday morning which does look epic on GFS currently.

Not bothered about the thaw here as there was never anything on the ground to thaw anyway.

[bridgechad]

Just wanna express my thanks as always to everyone for their insights in this thread! The Mod thread is impossible to follow for us not in the south and the input of many members in here have been excellent and invaluable! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

16 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Families rescued in Peak District after getting trapped in snow

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Police help dozens of motorists who became stranded after heavy snow fell in the Peak District.

Glossop Facebook this morning the mountain rescue had a few choice words for the 200 odd stranded vehicles up the snake and goyt valley

 

Yes. We all like a Winter Wonderland don’t we! 

Way way back we luckily had the good fortune to join a procession and follow the snowplough up and over Kirkstone. 

Easy. 

[A Face like Thunder]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

-0.6°C currently so the 7th consecutive air frost. Apart from that nothing of interest here until Friday morning which does look epic on GFS currently.

Not bothered about the thaw here as there was never anything on the ground to thaw anyway.

The BBC weather-for-the-week-ahead last night seemed to have very little of note for our region, even on Friday and the weekend, with a forecast of more of what we've already got. Icy here in the South of the region this morning, resulting perhaps from some overnight rain which has frozen. Dry at the moment.

[Liam J]

Freezing rain showers in Carlisle, very dangerous! Frustrating that it isn’t snowing, must be a mild layer above us!!  

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by DisruptiveGust

[northwestsnow]

The meto text is very uninspiring certainly from an easterly and reasonable uppers in January.. 

Hoping to see snow showers penetrative this locale ...

[severe snowstorm]

The metoffice text forecast for the region is intriguing for Thursday, stating wet and wintry weather arriving from the North West. Sounds like they are edging their bets a bit as this could mean anything from freezing rain to full on snow. Anyone got any thoughts regarding Thursday?

[Rain Lady]

Only a light NE breeze or calm, but like yesterday  the clouds moving quickly in some fast air up above.  Pressure rising.

 

[Thunder Snow]

Rain showers, frozen rain this morning nightmare

[I Cumbria Marra I]

A very light rain shower has made it all the way here.

[frosty ground]

Showers are making more inroads into the east now, but you have to feel for the south east today that's a pretty impressive streamer (of rain)

 

[damianslaw]

Just rain showers so far, colder uppers expected to move in overnight, so any showers that fall greater chance of them being of snow especially where heavy and longer lasting.

After many days of sunshine, today is much duller and less than inspiring, quite fitting for the first Monday in January.

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, DisruptiveGust said:

Freezing rain showers in Carlisle, very dangerous! Frustrating that it isn’t snowing, must be a mild layer above us!!  

 

I don't think it's freezing rain in the true sence as air temperatures are above freezing, its just the ground is so cold it's leaving icy areas. 

The uppers tonight are forecast to go slightly lower tonight(more - 8), will it be enough too see snowfall at lower levels? Or will their be a lack of PPN? 

And yes, I do feel a little sorry for the people in the SE having a rain streamer instead of a snow streamer but I did warn the poor upper air temperatures could bite us in the backside and it has, shame some members tried to argue and say "but it snowed at uppers of - 4"  of course but completely different set up! Nevermind, hope lessons are learnt. 

As for later this week, all depends if that front coming in from the NW starts to 'wave', the GFS model suggests it might and the ECM/UKMO looks like it suggests it won't but a little hard to tell. If the ECM/UKMO occurs, there still could be snowfall but the front will weaken and fizzle out, if it starts to wave then it could intensify and stick around a touch longer even. 

[Liam J]

12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I don't think it's freezing rain in the true sence as air temperatures are above freezing, its just the ground is so cold it's leaving icy areas. 

The uppers tonight are forecast to go slightly lower tonight(more - 8), will it be enough too see snowfall at lower levels? Or will their be a lack of PPN? 

And yes, I do feel a little sorry for the people in the SE having a rain streamer instead of a snow streamer but I did warn the poor upper air temperatures could bite us in the backside and it has, shame some members tried to argue and say "but it snowed at uppers of - 4"  of course but completely different set up! Nevermind, hope lessons are learnt. 

As for later this week, all depends if that front coming in from the NW starts to 'wave', the GFS model suggests it might and the ECM/UKMO looks like it suggests it won't but a little hard to tell. If the ECM/UKMO occurs, there still could be snowfall but the front will weaken and fizzle out, if it starts to wave then it could intensify and stick around a touch longer even. 

The was the temperature this morning when it was raining! What a shame it wasn’t snow, would be less dangerous and look so much better

[northwestsnow]

Cold rain and a warning out for ice ...

I think I will just be happy with a dusting now this week.

 

[dodge]

Yes forecast has all gone a bit uninspiring for wintry prospects...mind you showers have made the effortless trip over the pens in last hour or so...probably because they are rain.

[The Northern Ramper]

Pretty sure Tuesday onwards was the favoured period not today.

[cheshire snow]

Fax chart is fantastic tonight for most of the region with showers banding together spreading north to South Upper air temperature set to fall overnight into tomorrow some one going to see a fair bit of snow I would imagine.Thursday also looking good as band of sleet/snow spreads from the North

C.S

Edited January 4, 2021 by cheshire snow

[Spah1]

11 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Fax chart is fantastic tonight for most of the region with showers banding together spreading north to South Upper air temperature set to fall overnight into tomorrow some one going to see a fair bit of snow I would imagine.Thursday also looking good as band of sleet/snow spreads from the south.

C.S

You mean from the North?

[severe snowstorm]

47 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Fax chart is fantastic tonight for most of the region with showers banding together spreading north to South Upper air temperature set to fall overnight into tomorrow some one going to see a fair bit of snow I would imagine.Thursday also looking good as band of sleet/snow spreads from the North

C.S

Ties in with both Liverpool and Manchester Airport forecasts which highlight snow risk throughout this evening and overnight. However, metoffice forecast for region not inspiring for snow away from high ground or in the West overnight. 

[Kasim Awan]

Around 2cm of new accumulation here today. The falling snow line is about 250m at the moment. This is expected to drop to 120m after midnight when more significant shower activity is expected, this lasting well into Tue AM. Locally 1-5cm above 200m, 3-9cm above 350m under the shower stream. Local coverings possible for Oldham, Burnley, Macclesfield level. Again all highly locally variable. Further west a fringe of precip as streamer gains oomph may produce a covering locally early Tuesday.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Geordiesnow]

Unless there is a trough feature forecast, it's going to be hard to see much PPN making it west of the Pennines, that's just the way it is with easterlies. 

As for later on the week, it could be a classic case of charts that don't look snowy on face value could well end up being snowy. The more kinks and lower thicknesses there is, the higher chance that front will intensify. Hopefully before that, we can return to a sharp night time frost when this easterly flow eases, Wednesday night got the potential to be the coldest night of the season so far.

[russwirral]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Unless there is a trough feature forecast, it's going to be hard to see much PPN making it west of the Pennines, that's just the way it is with easterlies. 

As for later on the week, it could be a classic case of charts that don't look snowy on face value could well end up being snowy. The more kinks and lower thicknesses there is, the higher chance that front will intensify. Hopefully before that, we can return to a sharp night time frost when this easterly flow eases, Wednesday night got the potential to be the coldest night of the season so far.

Theres an intense looking convergence zone forecast on several models, including the FAX charts.  right now- ignoring the activity for Friday - thats where my thoughts are.  Its forectased to run through til EOD Tues.... I reckon someones gona see some surprise snow tomorrow

[PennineMark]

Can confirm this shower has produced snow here at 200m asl. Hopefully means anything that follows should do the same. Could be an interesting 24hrs or so. 

[WillinGlossop]

Had a couple of sleet showers readily snow last shower...