North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[More Runs Needed]

GFS has good snow opportunities into next week

[SnowWatcher2]

Lets hope this becomes reality 

[Kasim Awan]

Starting to snow here now, the easterly getting going. Temp 0.6C. 

Not much has changed regarding this easterly yet from the info I posted yesterday. Restricted to 250m+ until the window of colder uppers arrives early Tuesday.

[Kasim Awan]

Whilst largely a 200m+ shower event otherwise, The streamer Tuesday AM is embedded in -7.5 uppers & so produces a base snow line of 175m, therefore a temporary covering down to 100m in East Manchester, etc is possible. Further west depends on streamer strength & timing. Above 200m in the Peaks this may be a fairly significant macro event.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[SnowWatcher2]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Whilst largely a 200m+ shower event otherwise, The streamer Tuesday AM is embedded in -7.5 uppers & so produces a base snow line of 175m, therefore a temporary covering down to 100m in East Manchester, etc is possible. Further west coverings. Above 200m in the Peaks this may be a fairly significant macro event.

Keeping fingers crossed then, as although I'm located North East of Manchester, I'm at 213m elevation so hopefully should see some lasting snow fall, but quite often seems to split into a gap around this area.

[raul_sbd]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Whilst largely a 200m+ shower event otherwise, The streamer Tuesday AM is embedded in -7.5 uppers & so produces a base snow line of 175m, therefore a temporary covering down to 100m in East Manchester, etc is possible. Further west depends on streamer strength & timing. Above 200m in the Peaks this may be a fairly significant macro event.

Next chance for us low lever folk @Kasim Awan? Thurs? Fri perhaps? On mod thread looks bit pessimistic lol.. it’s only weather come on!! Sudden changes are the fun of it!!

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Next chance for us low lever folk @Kasim Awan? Thurs? Fri perhaps? On mod thread looks bit pessimistic lol.. it’s only weather come on!! Sudden changes are the fun of it!!

If the streamer sets up over Glossop early Tuesday you would be at risk of a dusting. Otherwise the trough sinking south on Thu/Fri if it doesn't weaken further has reasonable synoptics for a risk of some more snow to low ground.

 

 

[raul_sbd]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

If the streamer sets up over Glossop early Tuesday you would be at risk of a dusting. Otherwise the trough sinking south on Thu/Fri if it doesn't weaken further has reasonable synoptics for a risk of some more snow to low ground.

 

 

Sounds good! Btw some precipitation heading ur way from the east  will see what the weather Gods have in offer for us coming next week. 

My thoughts are a cold week coming then milder by the mid month to end up on a colder end of Jan due to the SSW effect.. will see, really interesting period for us weather geeks

 

[WillinGlossop]

Families rescued in Peak District after getting trapped in snow

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Police help dozens of motorists who became stranded after heavy snow fell in the Peak District.

Glossop Facebook this morning the mountain rescue had a few choice words for the 200 odd stranded vehicles up the snake and goyt valley

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by WillinGlossop

[SnowWatcher2]

6 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Sounds good! Btw some precipitation heading ur way from the east  will see what the weather Gods have in offer for us coming next week. 

My thoughts are a cold week coming then milder by the mid month to end up on a colder end of Jan due to the SSW effect.. will see, really interesting period for us weather geeks

 

Yea it definitely looks interesting over the next few weeks, hopefully a repeat of 2018 , although it did take a good month or more to see the major effects of the SSW back then as I believe it was early February that the event occurred and early-mid March when the Beast hit so could be waiting a few more weeks yet before anything major. but you never know, just look at the year we have had, anything is possible.

[toggerob]

Just now, WillinGlossop said:

Families rescued in Peak District after getting trapped in snow

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Police help dozens of motorists who became stranded after heavy snow fell in the Peak District.

Glossop Facebook this morning the mountain rescue had a few choice words for the 200 odd stranded vehicles up the snake and goyt valley 

There's a word that sounds like Bankers but begins with a 'W' that can be applied to these covidiots, it boggles the mind when organized events such as the SPINE RACE (which was due to be held next weekend) are being cancelled/postponed despite all the safety-regimes and procedures being put in place at the expense of the organizers. Meanwhile thousands of joe-public visitors to national parks are free to roam 'willy nilly' around the hills under the guise of it being for exercise, many often underprepared or underequipped for the winter conditions and having to be rescue daily by a already over-stretched MRT service. I know a MRT volunteer who was out all day for 16 hours yesterday rescuing these folks, at a time when there's a virus running rampant there might aswell not be any Tier's.

[Thunder Snow]

No weather warning out for ice, had rain showers off and on. Pavements and roads like glass buses off cars skidding off roads 

[northwestsnow]

Easterly..now we are talking..

For some strange reason Easterlies deliver here...

Its like the clouds energize as they cross from Huddersfield....

[damianslaw]

Wind has shifted to more of an easterly, whether this will result in showers following a different trajectory than recent days remains to be seen. For here, an easterly is far better than a NNE for shower penetration, just the obstacle of the Pennines, mind the wind looks strong so they should move across quickly. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by damianslaw

[Kasim Awan]

The falling snow line right now is 265m in the east of the region. A look at early Tuesday shows a wedge of -8 uppers & 175m freezing lines - snow line of 80m. Fohen effect will produce a warm layer between 500 and 1000ft above the surface. 

Right now we have light winds & high heights so showers will struggle to get past Macclesfield. This will be the same early Tuesday however > colder uppers, better convection and so showers will make it to the west Pennines at a slightly better intensity. All of the above means a final forecast of 60% coverage 2-5cm in orange i.e. above 250m - and 1-3cm 45% coverage in yellow - up to black line a wintry mix early Tue with localized dustings for a few. At this level  in black area > even early Tue Fohen means marginality possible - so requires main streamer.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Harsh Climate]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

The falling snow line right now is 265m in the east of the region. A look at early Tuesday shows a wedge of -8 uppers & 175m freezing lines - snow line of 80m. Fohen effect will produce a warm layer between 500 and 1000ft above the surface. 

Right now we have light winds & high heights so showers will struggle to get past Macclesfield. This will be the same early Tuesday however > colder uppers, better convection and so showers will make it to the west Pennines at a slightly better intensity. All of the above means a final forecast of 60% coverage 2-5cm in orange i.e. above 250m - and 1-3cm 45% coverage in yellow - up to black line a wintry mix early Tue with localized dustings for a few. At this level  in black area > even early Tue Fohen means marginality possible - so requires main streamer.

Hey your totals are way off the mark the dales north west leeds, past experience in this type of set up says 10cm plus in places there, I wouldn't be surprised with a 15cm fall somewhere like Greenhow Hill.. Especially looking at the latest Bracknell charts which show a long lasting convergence zone setting up shop. Once the snow starts settling and the showers lining up like a train some places gonna get plastered! Much lower areas there NW leeds I'm goin 2-7cm where streamers set up. Tuesday into Wednesday morning greatest risk.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Kasim Awan]

31 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Hey your totals are way off the mark the dales north west leeds, past experience in this type of set up says 10cm plus in places there, I wouldn't be surprised with a 15cm fall somewhere like Greenhow Hill.. Especially looking at the latest Bracknell charts which show a long lasting convergence zone setting up shop. Once the snow starts settling and the showers lining up like a train some places gonna get plastered! Much lower areas there NW leeds I'm goin 2-7cm where streamers set up. Tuesday into Wednesday morning greatest risk.

Thanks for your input, but bear in mind the map I provided is a conservative / safe projection. 

I agree there is potential during this period for more prolonged streamer activity on Tuesday in the north east of the map which may increase totals past the ones I indicated. 10cm possible quite widely from the High Peaks, Queensbury and the Dales. My knowledge is mostly focused on the South & West Pennines. We shall see how this develops.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[damianslaw]

Showers have made it to here, nothing heavy and just a sleety rain.

[WillinGlossop]

Sleety rain or Graupel... think Tuesday is good bet... plus Asda click collect tomorrow then Not venturing out for couple of weeks...

[James M]

A small shower of icy grains passing through, leaving a slight slushy dusting.

[jam2010]

it's not rain that has fell, looks like freezing rain never seen it before so im probably wrong.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Euro4 sets up a decent looking streamer early Tuesday morning. Just a tad N of GFS prediction

[iand61]

Just had a light snow shower here which has put a slight covering on the cars again.

hopefully a good sign for later.

[Weather-history]

Temperature fluctuating depending on amounts of cloud.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Weather-history

[dodge]

BBC & Models at odds again... Kirkwood just said you got to wait until the weekend and next week for it to get a little milder...but the models are backtracking a little this morning to a quick cold return?  Such volatility.

In the short term, some wintry surprises maybe as this week's easterly kicks in.