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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards


cheshire snow

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
3 minutes ago, borntobemild said:

As a noob can I ask where people are watching an image of the streamer ?

Netweather web site, look for charts and radar.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre
  • Location: Manchester City Centre
1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

Pfft. Band will be dead by the time it hits Manchester. 
 

Coming from the Irish Sea the showers have no issues reaching the East coast. They come from the East and the Pennines just destroy them 

And it looked so promising about an hour ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

5C475431-AC54-4584-BAFC-A64BCBFFAD2B.thumb.jpeg.bbfbe4585137ab3ccffdfb2c4f573aa4.jpeg

That was an amazing shower! 

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any one explain why no shower activity further north of Northumberland, everything seems to be starting south of Newcastle?

The great cumbrian snow shield of 20/21, would be nice just to see snow falling.

Edited by I Cumbria Marra I
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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Still coming down a bit.

64027F5D-0A50-4D11-90C6-80CE7E219587.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

A few snow showers rattling through here. A light covering of about 0.5cm.

An initial shower of graupel helped with the settling.

We’ve missed the heavier showers but still nice to look at. 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any one explain why no shower activity further north of Northumberland, everything seems to be starting south of Newcastle?

I could be wrong but I think there's a NNE element to the wind hence the showers are being driven in a more SSW direction. If it was a more direct East flow we would see places further north getting the Lions share of it like Newcastle, Edinburgh etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire Peaks
  • Location: Cheshire Peaks

Just had 6cm here in Macclesfield in an hour. The snow moving across the Pennines to much of NW England was completely not forecast this morning.

So being an ex-met office forecaster I have had a look at the models based on midnight data to see what they should have forecast. Basically they failed, in spite of data being available to enable the snow to have been predicted. In short it was a warm front development in deep unstable air

image.thumb.png.ff281d133d979f363f70c68d9874a5b0.pngimage.thumb.png.3df54ca3f8b1677b9e3579da3715812d.pngimage.thumb.png.4a35449c4615b876cf0efa54be2a6fd3.pngimage.thumb.png.13422e7ed98c5272009249b4c19afd02.png

 

I show the 850mb and 700mb chart for 1500Z, from the Euro4 model using the midnight forecast data today.  Preceded by the 500mb chart for 2400Z today (note the long finger of sub -34C air streaming from the northeast).

So at 1500Z (a snapshot) there is a pool of cold air at 850mb and 700mb over the northwest. With a northeast airflow behind it. Now there is a 500mb depression over us at 1500Z and a trough at both 850mb and 700mb. The warmer air upstream of this cold pool is rising above the cold pool and it contains very unstable air to NorthSea temperatures - a North Sea Streamer-. These streamers often do not make it over the Pennines, without a stronger gradient, but the frontal development encouraged and enhanced the streamer for our side of the Pennines.

One can see that the ingredients for this snowfall were predicted by the Euro4, but not the actual snowfall event. There is plenty of work for computer modellers to do , which no doubt over the years to come will occur. Good use of the very expensive new computer promised for the Met Office.  

I leave you with the precipitation forecasts, put out by the Euro4 and based on midnight data.   An essentially dry day for the northwest!!!!!!.. Room for improvement.  Incidentally I have been unable to find an accurate forecast of the snow, based on midnight data and therefore useful to the public, from any available numerical model. Perhaps someone has had more success.

image.thumb.png.81c56b5666b5205b8edce1583af2a538.pngimage.thumb.png.44031e1727100fec0c1afd000aefe5d4.pngimage.thumb.png.e3ad415111779136a2614d33b2424aa9.png

And the Arpege model:  The few zeros is all that it could manage

image.thumb.png.5e0b294c9c944207007d76da30ae4767.pngimage.thumb.png.742eac1d74c855f49c01118435eba5b4.pngimage.thumb.png.f61a1096856c6e805822a2ce3357ebe0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat, thunderstorms and winter snow
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL

Had about 3cm in that hour long heavy snow shower. Areas further north and east in Cheshire - Wilmslow, Macclesfield going towards Buxton got closer to 4-6cm quite impressive really for a narrow band of showers. Continuing to keep a close eye on the radar with BBC forecasting further heavy snow shower risk until midnight ❄️☃️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Thanks for the explanation icedust. I did myself say early last week we'll have these snow events at short notice, that the supercomputers for some reason despite all the money invested in them cannot predict, but human experience can. Get the cold in and this is what happens. I reckon over the days ahead we'll see further events out of the blue.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
8 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I could be wrong but I think there's a NNE element to the wind hence the showers are being driven in a more SSW direction. If it was a more direct East flow we would see places further north getting the Lions share of it like Newcastle, Edinburgh etc.

Winds are set to turn more NE then ENE overnight and tomorrow, so expect more showers to be developing further to the North than today.

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
4 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Had about 3cm in that hour long heavy snow shower. Areas further north and east in Cheshire - Wilmslow, Macclesfield going towards Buxton got closer to 4-6cm quite impressive really for a narrow band of showers. Continuing to keep a close eye on the radar with BBC forecasting further heavy snow shower risk until midnight ❄️☃️ 

Yes, Macc had quite fall of snow.

IMG_20210102_160717.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat, thunderstorms and winter snow
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
Just now, Rush2112 said:

Yes, Macc had quite fall of snow.

IMG_20210102_160717.jpg

Just started Snowing moderately again here as a smaller showery band moves through! ❄️❄️☃️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

From the reports I've heard settling has been quite marginal to low levels Manchester west. Can anyone confirm?

Settled on the grass. Started to cover other surfaces but we only had 10 mins of heavy snow. It melted when the heavy stuff moved away 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

 

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

From the reports I've heard settling has been quite marginal to low levels Manchester west. Can anyone confirm?

Only had about 5-10 mins of decent snow from the band but was settling here.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossendale Valley 1000ft asl
  • Location: Rossendale Valley 1000ft asl

Very heavy again now every time I think it’s stopped it starts again and with the drop in temp it’s settling better

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

@Dexter just starting again

C.S

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