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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards


cheshire snow

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7 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

At current projection, the main bulk will miss. It needs to swing around. Guessing it’s gonna pivot at some point 

Aye, the 700hpa wind direction is ENE but the 500hpa trough direction is NNE. The upshot of this is precip areas moving from the ENE as per 700hpa & the trough itself moving NNE, this will develop new precip areas on the 500hpa flow i.e. a NNE trajectory. Still it is way west of some hi res. Almost certain it wont miss us.

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Down to -4.7°C this morning and it’s still -2.4°C now! A light shower passed through earlier and every flake stuck

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Another lovely frosty morning here with blue skies, zero chance of snow once again but looking good further south.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Looking at the radar, we’d have to see a dramatic change in course or a dying of the activity for that lot just entering Lancashire to not drop something across most of the region.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Big flakes aswell, intensity a little hit and miss but did not expect snow today so it's all a bonus. 

Settling on most surfaces but do need a constant heavy intensity to be anything meaningful though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Aye, the 700hpa wind direction is ENE but the 500hpa trough direction is NNE. The upshot of this is precip areas moving from the ENE as per 700hpa & the trough itself moving NNE, this will develop new precip areas on the 500hpa flow i.e. a NNE trajectory. Still it is way west of some hi res. Almost certain it wont miss us.

Well here’s hoping. At least we don’t have to worry about Orographic Lift for a change as it’s coming S over the Pennines as opposed to W. But it would be interesting to see new precipitation develop over the moors as opposed to dissipate over the moors. 
 

Playing it by ear, but I’ve got a sinking feeling it’s gonna miss. 

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9 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Well here’s hoping. At least we don’t have to worry about Orographic Lift for a change as it’s coming S over the Pennines as opposed to W. But it would be interesting to see new precipitation develop over the moors as opposed to dissipate over the moors. 
 

Playing it by ear, but I’ve got a sinking feeling it’s gonna miss. 

If the wind hill run is small it will intensitfy the precip rather than break it down. Think Kent downs, Lincs wolds. This is a middle ground so I can't see any major change in intensity. That's nerves, I have them too & they are credible as it's not 100%, especially west of the M6 where it's more marginal.

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
2 hours ago, Joe Snow said:

Lightly snowing as the feature over Wales sinks southwards. Interesting to see BBC Weather app going for heavy snow showers much of this evening for my location. We’ll see ❄️☃️ 

Really exciting update that as when I checked literally an hour before you posted there was literally next to nothing forecast from the BBC app. 

Forgot I had screen shot it...

Before (Crewe)

image.thumb.png.db1c7731cd9622cd33694d1218188e91.png

Now

image.thumb.png.8530f1713c82f61940869359a2292509.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

Well, for what it's worth, the updated TAFs for Manchester and Liverpool Airports still show snow risk, with the window of opportunity widened at Liverpool to now be the same as Manchester - 14:00 to 21:00. I guess this could be since the precipitation is currently further West than the high res models (as Kasim pointed out above).

Edited by Dexter
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe

P.s, after yesterdays Thawfest... a sprinkling from the shower earlier and now it must be below freezing still as it has only melted on certain parts of certain roofs.

What time is normally peak temp this time of year?

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

I think were getting the bulk of this system. Fingers crossed it delivers something worthwhile.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossendale Valley 1000ft asl
  • Location: Rossendale Valley 1000ft asl
23 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Looking at the radar, we’d have to see a dramatic change in course or a dying of the activity for that lot just entering Lancashire to not drop something across most of the region.

 

 

It’s still heading for us and the clouds are building fast!

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

It has snowed. There’s loads of flakes stuck to the frozen ground. Must’ve been from that light PPN earlier. Bodes well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop 165m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Glossop 165m asl

I think the second band of showers could hit us here in the south of the region exp around 3.30-4 pm .. 2cm perhaps? -0.3c.. currently in Sale

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Arpege 06z

overview_20210102_06_009.jpg

Looks good. 
Temp here is 1.4C. DP is 1.0C. So it needs to drop down before we see anything wintry. 

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Posted
  • Location: Accrington
  • Location: Accrington

Light flakes just beginning to fall in Accrington. Sky looks very "full"! I've got to collect my shopping later too...

Still have bits of snow on the ground from last year!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
29 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Well just had a stronger bit of intensity and most surfaces are now white, so anywhere that gets proper heavy snow for a good while should be in for a decent event. 

Surprised you have a cover, the band fell apart here, just a snowflake or two and nothing, just on the west edge, so close.. very bad luck. Current temp 2.3 degrees.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
49 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Another lovely frosty morning here with blue skies, zero chance of snow once again but looking good further south.

Same here our snow shield is well and truly in force

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