North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[damianslaw]

A minute of light snowflakes, all broke apart here. Temp now 0.8 degrees. 

[Hanny]

...looks like there shall be some ‘adage’ to my area today, still has snow remnants on frozen ground so anticipate a ‘top up’.......

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Hanny said:

...looks like there shall be some ‘adage’ to my area today, still has snow remnants on frozen ground so anticipate a ‘top up’.......

 

not found that accurate, 3 snow events I've had here, it's shown as mainly rain and sleet on weather type, mind not got NW extra?

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not found that accurate, 3 snow events I've had here, it's shown as mainly rain and sleet on weather type, mind not got NW extra?

UKV last run is way off. It doesn't even show that current line of precipitation 

[iand61]

There looks to be a fair bit of intensity to the band crossing the Yorkshire Dales and the ones behind it and at the moment, the direction still has our name on it.

Hopefully this remains the same, I’m sure we’ll start to find out in the next couple of hours

 

 

[Backtrack]

Will be quite ironic if we get a covering today due to poor timing. All of the previous events/warnings have came mostly very early morning, meaning I have to set my alarm. Probably the best time of day for the PPN to come due to it being colder. Only the first two bouts of showers produced snow. The rest that came at that time produced rain. 
 

so this one is going to arrive during peak daytime temps. So I’d be surprised if we get anything. Temp only 0.6C though, so it is extremely cold outside. 

[Backtrack]

Just now, iand61 said:

There looks to be a fair bit of intensity to the band crossing the Yorkshire Dales and the ones behind it and at the moment, the direction still has our name on it.

Hopefully this remains the same, I’m sure we’ll start to find out in the next couple of hours

 

 

The problem is in the highlighted area. It’s feeding time and the Yorkshire Dales are hungry. I’m guessing it’s a weak front, so it might be ok. But it will weaken a lot in the next hour or so I’m guessing. 

[More Runs Needed]

Just now, Backtrack said:

so this one is going to arrive during peak daytime temps. So I’d be surprised if we get anything. Temp only 0.6C though, so it is extremely cold outside. 

Exactly, but as said previously, this will be the coldest day this winter so far, so still good chances, currently 0.0c here

[Borei]

With its belated nowcast weather warning, I'm afraid that the MO has once more proved that it's a long way from being 'world beating'. Its forecasts are important to such as hill walkers, and this is really poor. Indeed, as Covid has exposed, our ability to deliver 'world beating' anything is more a fond illusion than a reality, and the MO is no exception. 

Clear skies here with a low of -5.6c aided by the persisting snow cover, easily the coldest night of the winter.

 

 

 

 

 

[More Runs Needed]

Just now, Backtrack said:

The problem is in the highlighted area. It’s feeding time and the Yorkshire Dales are hungry. I’m guessing it’s a weak front, so it might be ok. But it will weaken a lot in the next hour or so I’m guessing. 

ECM doesn't weaken this band too much

[Kasim Awan]

Most inland will see some snow with this, on the coast it will be mixed at times. It will likely hit Manchester at 2.30pm. About 1-3cm inland.

It will retain some intensity as it sinks into Lancashire however it may break up in places leading to some localizations. The 18z WRF once again nailed this taking a slightly different track last minute. Further North West. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Mark_p]

Interesting that it's coming from the NE (lost track of how many times I've thought or said 'interesting' this week hah. I wonder if it'll be more powdery snow if or when it arrives. BBC app (I know) has heavy snow showers now -it had shown rain/sleet/light snow for the snow falls we've had which still have a frzoen covering here - albeit very diminished. 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Borei said:

With its belated nowcast weather warning, I'm afraid that the MO has once more proved that it's a long way from being 'world beating'. Its forecasts are important to such as hill walkers, and this is really poor. Indeed, as Covid has exposed, our ability to deliver 'world beating' anything is more a fond illusion than a reality, and the MO is no exception. 

Clear skies here with a low of -5.6c aided by the persisting snow cover, easily the coldest night of the winter.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't understand this post. I agree it was too late, or are you trying to suggest the set up today is too weak to warrant a warning, which I don't agree with?

Edited January 2, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[severe snowstorm]

I am confident it will fall as snow here, but the question is how much it will weaken and fragment by the time it arrives, unless it is expected to maintain intensity?

[More Runs Needed]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

I am confident it will fall as snow here, but the question is how much it will weaken and fragment by the time it arrives, unless it is expected to maintain intensity?

Complete now cast, may intensify in some areas, may weaken a mile down the road, interesting day

[Borei]

13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I don't understand this post. I agree it was too late, or are you trying to suggest the set up today is too weak to warrant a warning, which I don't agree with?

Hi Kasim,

No, my point was totally that it was too late. For hill walkers, of which there are many at weekends in this region, decisions will often be made based on MO forecasts. Getting stuck on a hill in blizzard conditions can be a really serious situation and this is where timely warnings really matter. Putting one out at 10AM for an event due at 1PM is too late.  

As always, thanks for your really excellent interpretative contributions to this regional forum .

 

[severe snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

Complete now cast, may intensify in some areas, may weaken a mile down the road, interesting day

Yeah, interesting day for sure, and great to see repeated snow potential most days atm. Beats the mild, damp dross we normally expect in winter that's for sure. 

[More Runs Needed]

Now that the skies have cleared again, the temp has dropped to -0.8c!

Edited January 2, 2021 by Dkeane3

[Backtrack]

Just now, Dkeane3 said:

Now that the skies have cleared again, the temp has dropped to - 0.8c!

Now that’s weird at almost midday!!

[severe snowstorm]

Looks like the two bands of precipitation in the North/North East are beginning to merge together?

[Backtrack]

At current projection, the main bulk will miss. It needs to swing around. Guessing it’s gonna pivot at some point 

[Hanny]

37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not found that accurate, 3 snow events I've had here, it's shown as mainly rain and sleet on weather type, mind not got NW extra?

... must admit that is been ‘lucky’ in terms of forecasted snow showers here, probably more to do with height and location but hey, if all fails then it’s back to the ‘snow dance’ routine.....

 

[WillinGlossop]

-2c still and frozen solid out... snow from previous days with Graupel covering this morning still... lookslike this afternoon might be interesting... 

[Rush2019]

-2.5 with clear skies just before 7am.  Now 0.0 and cloudy.  Delivering my vulnerables shopping, then I can settle down to radar watching and nowcasting and eating chocolate.

[that damn garden path]

BBC forecast recently changed to heavy snow showers this afternoon. Looks like what's pushing form the NE is actually intensify as it back builds over the moors/N Pennines. Maybe for once the Manchester snow shield will fail!!