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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards


cheshire snow

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Dkeane3 said:

Upcoming, but seems like a system that would only trend south closer to the time (as usual)

its EC 240, it won't exist! never mind track S

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Is that January 11th upcoming, or a chart from the past?

Next weekend but it’ll have moved south to plaster the channel by then

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

its EC 240, it won't exist! never mind track S

Haha, also true

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Wow. Just read the mod thread. Didn’t quite realise until this very moment how much of a headache it’s gives me. I don’t know if I’m coming or going. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is a trough coming into cold uppers tomorrow, thanks for @captaincroc for pointing this out. It's most likely to track just to our south into S.Yorks / Staffordshire however around a 40% risk of it being slightly north into Manchester. 1/2cm from Sheffield, Buxton, South Cheshire / Staffordshire a risk*.

Is this the band between 12 and 4pm? Or later? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bollington
  • Location: Bollington
15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is a trough coming into cold uppers tomorrow, thanks for @captaincroc for pointing this out. It's most likely to track just to our south into S.Yorks / Staffordshire however around a 40% risk of it being slightly north into Manchester. 1/2cm from Sheffield, Buxton, South Cheshire / Staffordshire a risk*.

Yep watching this closely hope it clips me in Bollington 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes around then 1-5pm

I see ICON and ECM have it further north than Manchester too

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Wow. Just read the mod thread. Didn’t quite realise until this very moment how much of a headache it’s gives me. I don’t know if I’m coming or going. 

Yeah i can only read it in small doses.

 it does my head in when folk cherry pick the charts that show snow in their own back yard but then refuse to accept any that show others getting the best conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
12 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Yeah i can only read it in small doses.

 it does my head in when folk cherry pick the charts that show snow in their own back yard but then refuse to accept any that show others getting the best conditions.

Yeah if it doesn't snow darn sarf they don't want to acknowledge it up here. And when we're in a cold spell they are franticly looking for a breakdown of it. The same suspects each time. They should just relax and enjoy what we're getting as we usually don't get much to begin with in western Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
5 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, the front with easterly winds produce a strong orographic drying effect / forcing, with precipitation / convection reforming west of the M60. A classic is 22nd March 2013.

The showers, on the other hand, are not subject to this "forcing" & so undergo decay over the east of the region this often bringing snow to Manchester. Additionally, showers in an easterly whilst are weakened by the Pennines, there is also a minor element of funnelling & precip promoting uplift which can locally increase accumulations. This often found in Glossop / Hyde area before it decays into Levenshume.

I Doth my cap. 
you are a very knowledgable person, Kasim 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Can't even be bothered with that model thread. I go in there to see what the models are doing and all I can see is:

 

OMG IT WONT SNOW IN SLOUGH BUT IT WILL IN MANCHESTER WHY IS THAT OMG NO

Mods never do a thing about it. South south south south.

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I Doth my cap. 
you are a very knowledgable person, Kasim 

Seconded, also your snow chance insights are very helpful.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Can't even be bothered with that model thread. I go in there to see what the models are doing and all I can see is:

 

OMG IT WONT SNOW IN SLOUGH BUT IT WILL IN MANCHESTER WHY IS THAT OMG NO

Mods never do a thing about it. South south south south.

It's true, I follow the mod thread for a month in early winter and always end up staying in regionals after that

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12 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Can't even be bothered with that model thread. I go in there to see what the models are doing and all I can see is:

 

OMG IT WONT SNOW IN SLOUGH BUT IT WILL IN MANCHESTER WHY IS THAT OMG NO

Mods never do a thing about it. South south south south.

I know, I got tore apart for saying run x would be good for my area. Yet they spend most of the time posting snow pics for down Sarf. How hypocritical.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Looks like there may be an issue with prams losing their toys in the Mad thread at the moment.

some posters are not happy at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I know, I got tore apart for saying run x would be good for my area. Yet they spend most of the time posting snow pics for down Sarf. How hypocritical.

OMG WHY ARE YOU HIGH UP IN BUXTON WITH A GREAT CHANCE OF SNOW YET I'M IN CENTRAL LONDON AND THE GFS SAYS IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER AND LESS SNOWY IT MUST BE WRONG I AWAIT THE 400Z RUN TO RECTIFY MY CHANCES

Boring. We're snowless up here also, just one of them thing isn't it. North is usually better for cold..

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl

Tomorrow's band of snow trends North on the GFS 18z, not as good as the ICON 18z though

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is a trough coming into cold uppers tomorrow, thanks for @captaincroc for pointing this out. It's most likely to track just to our south into S.Yorks / Staffordshire however around a 40% risk of it being slightly north into Manchester. 1/2cm from Sheffield, Buxton, South Cheshire / Staffordshire a risk*.

Omg!! I feel famous!! Can I get my Blue Peter badge for Meteorology  

I know I am in this thread but I am just over in the Staffordshire border now so it is looking good for here going by your forecast. Only thing that is a shame is the timing as it's in the peak of the day so not expecting any to stick...but will be nice to see some more snow fall.

As with others definitely less cold today, the thaw was a lot more rigorous than previous days. 

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8 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Omg!! I feel famous!! Can I get my Blue Peter badge for Meteorology  

I know I am in this thread but I am just over in the Staffordshire border now so it is looking good for here going by your forecast. Only thing that is a shame is the timing as it's in the peak of the day so not expecting any to stick...but will be nice to see some more snow fall.

As with others definitely less cold today, the thaw was a lot more rigorous than previous days. 

If you get the precip, I'd suggest at 170m with -7 uppers & an offshore wind it will definitely settle. Only a very slim chance you'll catch the -6 uppers associated with the moderated trough core, this will still give a good risk of snow settling.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

If you get the precip, I'd suggest at 170m with -7 uppers & an offshore wind it will definitely settle. Only a very slim chance you'll catch the -6 uppers associated with the moderated trough core, this will still give a good risk of snow settling.

Manchester Airport Taf indicating the possibility of tomorrow's trough been slightly  further north than what the GFS is indicating.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

If you get the precip, I'd suggest at 170m with -7 uppers & an offshore wind it will definitely settle. Only a very slim chance you'll catch the -6 uppers associated with the moderated trough core, this will still give a good risk of snow settling.

Well I just reread the timings and by 3pm the temp is normally dropping so fingers crossed.

What models should we be looking at do you reckon for this feature? Which do you think are modelling it correctly?

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