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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Maccies fries or chippy chips?

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    Hello Guys & Girls, First of all I just want to say a huge thank you to all of you for all the messages of support and the PM's you sent me, you are an ok bunch aren't you! So, thank you.

    Hi Guys & Girls,  A short message from me while I still have the energy, my Mrs & I are both in our early 40's with asthma, we have made every effort to protect ourselves from from this e

    Shades of Feb 1996' for the NW with the current output - elevation, uppers and frontal / streamer alignment appear in the favour of many eastern areas (e.g. E Cumbria pummelled), but sizeable amounts

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Good ol Fish and Chips from chippy are the best!!

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

    Welcome back.

    We have missed your input.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Shades of Feb 1996' for the NW with the current output - elevation, uppers and frontal / streamer alignment appear in the favour of many eastern areas (e.g. E Cumbria pummelled), but sizeable amounts (few inches) for East Manchester, Lancashire >100m) > This for circa 120H. Remember the most important factors in a convective easterly for us are high wind strength & lower heights. These both appear conducive for the above ATM unless we see last minute changes --

    E.g. Winds adequately strong for westwards progression of notable showers up to say M6 corridor on ECM12Z @ 116-120h

    Further west accumulations depend largely on frontal activity WHICH is likely to develop as the cold air pool develops structurally OR via streamer concentrations with the convective flow > watch for this frontal wedge @ 144h becoming more defined, on the ECM it was a finely tuned significant snow event. Under a frontal wedge strong winds are not important - the westwards movement is enveloped by the higher level trough moving east > this needs a watch

    So still various factors which could change in the NWP modelling & so change our snow fate as a result. Nontheless a strong signal for rife snowfall developments in the NWP.

    Game on!

    91 & 96 delivered here so thanks for that extra info, I've been saying this easterly could be snowy even for western parts of the region as the setup also reminds me of back then. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
    12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Shades of Feb 1996' for the NW with the current output - elevation, uppers and frontal / streamer alignment appear in the favour of many eastern areas (e.g. E Cumbria pummelled), but sizeable amounts (few inches) for East Manchester, Lancashire >100m) > This for circa 120H. Remember the most important factors in a convective easterly for us are high wind strength & lower heights. These both appear conducive for the above ATM unless we see last minute changes --

    E.g. Winds adequately strong for westwards progression of notable showers up to say M6 corridor on ECM12Z @ 116-120h

    Further west accumulations depend largely on frontal activity which IS likely to develop as the cold air pool develops structurally (this happens with cold pools often - 2nd Feb 2009 and March 2018 examples). RETAIN a cold easterly input during this phase == blizzard / heavy snow to most elevations. If too much northerly progression == wet mess (3rd Feb 2009 even turned to rain here @ 400m).

    OR via streamer concentrations with the convective flow > watch for this frontal wedge @ 144h becoming more defined, on the ECM it was a finely tuned significant snow event. Under a frontal wedge strong winds are not important - the westwards movement is enveloped by the higher level trough moving east > this needs a watch

    So as explained still various factors which could change in the NWP modelling & so change our snow fate as a result. Nontheless a strong signal for rife snowfall developments in the NWP.

    Game on!

    Would give anything for a Feb 1996 Blackpool - 3118942825_e861231fba.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    Atm the convective flow is slightly too far SE with the flow to enable optimal tracking into west Cheshire & west Lancs

    This would largely be an M6 East & > 150m affair

    image.thumb.png.e838d3cd1c9389fa7e33cb781020b384.png

    For 1996 you really need an entrained front in an ENE flow & lower heights, stronger winds. Showers & streamers pile in:

    image.thumb.png.341aa6756bbe17a50467ae797783f554.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Atm the convective flow is slightly too far SE with the flow to enable optimal tracking into west Cheshire & west Lancs

    This would largely be an M6 East & > 150m affair

    image.thumb.png.e838d3cd1c9389fa7e33cb781020b384.png

    For 1996 you really need an entrained front in an ENE flow & lower heights, stronger winds. Showers & streamers pile in:

    image.thumb.png.341aa6756bbe17a50467ae797783f554.png

    Sorry Kasim I'm referring to Feb 91 & Dec 96.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

    Christ on a bike if that came off it might be time to switch the national news off. Although more than likely the leccy going down would do that favour for us. 

     

    image.thumb.png.a12ba017769af71b12379879a8536039.png

    Edited by Frosty the Snowman
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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    Christ on a bike if that came off it might be time to switch the national news off. Although more than likely the leccy going down would do that favour for us. 

     

    image.thumb.png.a12ba017769af71b12379879a8536039.png

    Time to ask for the four candles.

    Yes, that chart is hypnotic. My wife aint gonna be pleased, things are really bad in community and thats before any snow snarling the roads.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    New thread maybe mods?

    Yep, will start one in the morning 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    Even thought it’s slushy, I’m surprised at the amount of snow still around. Temperature is still only 2.7°C

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Shades of Feb 1996' for the NW with the current output - elevation, uppers and frontal / streamer alignment appear in the favour of many eastern areas (e.g. E Cumbria pummelled), but sizeable amounts (few inches) for East Manchester, Lancashire >100m) > This for circa 120H. Remember the most important factors in a convective easterly for us are high wind strength & lower heights. These both appear conducive for the above ATM unless we see last minute changes --

    E.g. Winds adequately strong for westwards progression of notable showers up to say M6 corridor on ECM12Z @ 116-120h

    Further west accumulations depend largely on frontal activity which IS likely to develop as the cold air pool develops structurally (this happens with cold pools often - 2nd Feb 2009 and March 2018 examples). RETAIN a cold easterly input during this phase == blizzard / heavy snow to most elevations. If too much northerly progression == wet mess (3rd Feb 2009 even turned to rain here @ 400m).

    OR via streamer concentrations with the convective flow > watch for this frontal wedge @ 144h becoming more defined, on the ECM it was a finely tuned significant snow event. Under a frontal wedge strong winds are not important - the westwards movement is enveloped by the higher level trough moving east > this needs a watch

    So as explained still various factors which could change in the NWP modelling & so change our snow fate as a result. Nontheless a strong signal for rife snowfall developments in the NWP.

    Game on!

    Yes Jan 26 1996 springs to mind. We had about 6 inches from an easterly frontal feature made it's way easily to the Irish Sea.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A word on temps today, all forecasts had us on 5 or 6 degrees by late afternoon, alas we haven't got above 3 degrees all day and currently 2.8 degrees.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

    Okay. Probably time to wheel out a debate that was being had a week or two ago with regards to preferences. 

     

    Would you rather have a foot of the wet snow we normally get from the westerly events or 3-4 inches of powder snow that could be possible from an easterly?

     

    Honestly think I'd take the latter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    Okay. Probably time to wheel out a debate that was being had a week or two ago with regards to preferences. 

     

    Would you rather have a foot of the wet snow we normally get from the westerly events or 3-4 inches of powder snow that could be possible from an easterly?

     

    Honestly think I'd take the latter. 

    Tbf mate, I don't remember getting Snow on the North Staffs / Cheshire border from an easterly.

    I do remember a great fall on the 26th / 27th Jan 1996, as the Everton v Vale game was one of only a few that survived the Weather, but can't remember if that was an Easterly.

    As that was the last great event Stoke has had, I'll settle for that again lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    12 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    Okay. Probably time to wheel out a debate that was being had a week or two ago with regards to preferences. 

     

    Would you rather have a foot of the wet snow we normally get from the westerly events or 3-4 inches of powder snow that could be possible from an easterly?

     

    Honestly think I'd take the latter. 

    Well obviously the proper snow from the East but even in the beast from the east, the most snow we had was from the start with the trough which did not deliver much and I learnt a new thing of sublimination(snowcover evaporating due the very air). Im not expecting much if any snow here from this set up but would love to be proven wrong. 

    If anything as this troublesome faff on low heads SE'wards(hopefully) in the next few days there is slight indication some could see a surprise snow event, GFS uppers not as good as the UKMO/ECM but winds will be lighter and thicknesses does go low, its one to watch I think. 

     

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