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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

cheshire snow

By cheshire snow
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More Runs Needed Aficionado

More Runs Needed

Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
Posted

Let's just hope WRF is right again, models are terrible with these scenarios so will have to be a wait and see

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
19 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Ouch...  

made poached eggs on hash browns for lunch... marinating some lamb for tea with some ratatouille...

Woodburner on lazy Sunday afternoon on couch 

And Leeds are winning.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Icon says NO! 
 

Bugger off ☹️

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Icon says NO! 
 

Bugger off ☹️

It aint over till the snowman gets washed away.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

It aint over till the snowman gets washed away.

That’s about 10am Tuesday! FD9E9324-F10A-43C5-B3E3-764DB89BF6FE.thumb.jpeg.92685034dd2f1d36323e0a51cf905fb7.jpeg

 

Edited by Spah1
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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Brief period of snow (maybe) followed by rain. Not worth staying up for. 
 

Next! 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

That’s about 10am Tuesday! FD9E9324-F10A-43C5-B3E3-764DB89BF6FE.thumb.jpeg.92685034dd2f1d36323e0a51cf905fb7.jpeg

 

That's 4pm?

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
13 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Brief period of snow (maybe) followed by rain. Not worth staying up for. 
 

Next! 

That's how I been seeing it all along sadly, central southern Scotland especially higher ground could get a right pasting. 

It was a close thing but we did not see any signs of a more slider type low which would of limited the milder air coming in. So it looks like a snow to rain event which unless the vast majority is snowfall(which it won't be) is just a waste of time.

Did admire the hope though from some but sadly it was not likely to alter too much. 

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
23 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Brief period of snow (maybe) followed by rain. Not worth staying up for. 
 

Next! 

Easterly next weekend anyone?

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SnowWatcher2 Aficionado

SnowWatcher2

Posted
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
Posted (edited)

Radar prediction from ICONEU looking decent 23.6cm currently predicting from last update .. although I'm not expecting that .

image.thumb.png.8422adf25fb767fb85481e0e1d4000ea.png

Current Sat snapshot below.

image.thumb.png.2a1e83d4f54d2fceb5fff5cfb0f46eb6.pngimage.thumb.png.81454355b9a8ba7d68d8ff2b41409c94.png 

Edited by SnowWatcher2
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

If it doesn’t start as snow it will start as ice pellets. Anyone who sees ice pellets knows that the warm inversion is there and will not be snow again.

i’m staying up all night tomorrow because I trust WRF, it’s usually good with these setups.

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Joe Bloggs Experienced

Joe Bloggs

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

If it doesn’t start as snow it will start as ice pellets. Anyone who sees ice pellets knows that the warm inversion is there and will not be snow again.

i’m staying up all night tomorrow because I trust WRF, it’s usually good with these setups.

I’ll be mighty impressed with the WRF if we see temporary snow in the south of the region from this. Most other output shows rain all the way now.  Edit - 12z ARPEGE shows snow. 
 

I also now have my eye on the potential for an easterly next weekend - could see some snow showers and very cold weather but nowhere near set in stone yet. 

Edited by Joe Bloggs
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

I am 90% sure I will see snow tomorrow night and about 70% sure I will see a temporary accumulation. 100% sure there will be a period of heavy ice pellets with freezing rain on high ground afterwards

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SnowWatcher2 Aficionado

SnowWatcher2

Posted
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
Posted (edited)

Be nice if those accumulations where moved south a little... ah well, be happy if we get a few hours of heavy snow fall, regardless how long it stays.   

image.thumb.png.c329f1a5138b58991d2b32bd49b4aa2b.png

Edited by SnowWatcher2
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Joe Bloggs Experienced

Joe Bloggs

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I am 90% sure I will see snow tomorrow night and about 70% sure I will see a temporary accumulation. 100% sure there will be a period of heavy ice pellets with freezing rain on high ground afterwards

I’m a bit confused Chris - I can’t see that the snow potential looks very good on the 12z WRF? The frame attached below is about as good as it gets for the south of the region ? By 2am and 3am rain is shown. Lots of snow further north though. 

Are there multiple versions of this model and am I looking at the right one? 

spacer.png

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Great! Just as I go and stick my neck out now WRF has downgraded completely. Maybe 1 hour of ice pellets followed by rain now.

Forget it.

I will take a break until tomorrow.

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine HARMONIE 0.03° de KNMI (météo néerlandaise) sur 2 zones (Belgique, Pays-Bas)

 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I’m a bit confused Chris - I can’t see that the snow potential looks very good on the 12z WRF? The frame attached below is about as good as it gets for the south of the region ? By 2am and 3am rain is shown. Lots of snow further north though. 

Are there multiple versions of this model and am I looking at the right one? 
 

9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I’m a bit confused Chris - I can’t see that the snow potential looks very good on the 12z WRF? The frame attached below is about as good as it gets for the south of the region ? By 2am and 3am rain is shown. Lots of snow further north though. 

Are there multiple versions of this model and am I looking at the right one? 

spacer.png

It hadn’t updated to 12Z when I made the prediction. It’s SH*T now. Never mind.

Edited by Chris.R
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Joe Bloggs Experienced

Joe Bloggs

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

It hadn’t updated to 12Z when I made the prediction. It’s SH*T now. Never mind.

Lol . 

 

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Joe Snow Accomplished

Joe Snow

Posted
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat, thunderstorms and winter snow
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
Posted

Unless things change dramatically I can only see a sleet to rain event for those south of Manchester tomorrow night into Tuesday now. Some initial wet snow the further east you go at best. Higher ground and further north and particularly east might be a different story. Eyes then turn to the weekend potential easterly that tend to be v cold but dry until the breakdown for the Cheshire plain. BFTE and Feb 09 perhaps being the only recent exceptions and even then snow was no more than 5cm or so to low levels. Have been watching the snowstorm coverage on the East Coast of the USA and some there are moaning about getting 6 inches of snow  rather than 12 inches safe to say I don't think they would cope living in the North West of England during winter! 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Well today has mainly been:

DOWNGRADE SUNDAY!

Day 5 looks good......

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted
2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Well today has mainly been:

DOWNGRADE SUNDAY!

Day 5 looks good......

Tbh which was the more predictable, our snow chances disappearing further north for the second time in a week or Burnley getting hammered by Chelsea for the second time in a season.

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Pinched this out of the mod thread.

Bloody hell.

355141214_Screenshot_2021-01-31Modeloutputdiscussion-isthebeastawakening.thumb.png.38e5c363d7d60f1d3e260af4e9fb186b.png

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