North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[The Northern Ramper]

It really feels cold out, I don’t think I could cope with a BFTE nowadays lol

[WillinGlossop]

7 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Snowing here, but in bursts then peters off. Its more flurries than troublesome snow.

Yep flurrying in the wind... blink and your miss it... 

[Geordiesnow]

GFS 06Z run sadly still goes for the snow turning back to rain set up. U would say that is the most favoured outcome. Time is running out too see huge changes in this also but it does look small margins really. 

[itsnowjoke]

A few flakes floating here

[Iceaxecrampon]

3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

GFS 06Z run sadly still goes for the snow turning back to rain set up. U would say that is the most favoured outcome. Time is running out too see huge changes in this also but it does look small margins really. 

Tuesday you mean?

06z is a bit of a downgrade.

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Tuesday you mean?

06z is a bit of a downgrade.

06z less data. Junk

[Joe Bloggs]

GFS has never been on board with Tuesday and it could be consistently wrong/too progressive , but you have to accept it as a possible solution. Just gonna check ICON now. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Tuesday you mean?

06z is a bit of a downgrade.

Looks the same too me, okay slight variation for the worst but same result of snow turning back to rain. 

Central belt of Scotland could get hammered from this. 

[Joe Bloggs]

06z ICON is very much still on for Tuesday. 
 

It shows a separate lighter band of snow Monday night, then a band of snow moving in early Tuesday morning. It does tend to turn to rain for the far south of the region. The front appears to stall in Lancs in the afternoon with some heavy snow by then - Lancs looks like the sweet spot. 
 

GFS should not be ignored however and could well be the final outcome. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

GFS has never been on board with Tuesday and it could be consistently wrong/too progressive , but you have to accept it as a possible solution. Just gonna check ICON now. 

In fairness all the main models are saying the same thing, some variation of course with the UKMO looking most favourable but even that model would suggest snow turning back to rain with the cold air hanging on in Scotland. 

[iand61]

Looking at the radar there are some quite hefty showers heading towards the Peaks and eastern Greater Manchester from South Yorkshire so maybe a covering for some if they make it across.

I am probably to far north for these although we are getting snow at the moment from some running up Calderdale and already today I’ve seen more snow than looked possible given last nights and this mornings forecasts.

 

[shadowfax]

Very small flakes flying around in the howling wind!!

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

In fairness all the main models are saying the same thing, some variation of course with the UKMO looking most favourable but even that model would suggest snow turning back to rain with the cold air hanging on in Scotland. 

I do think the south of the region will see a snow turning to rain scenario.

I think that’s the most likely solution, probably better into Lancs and Cumbria, especially with elevation.
 

This is ICON’s take btw for the afternoon period. Heavy snow turning to rain in the south of the region , northern parts doing better. this is just one frame - worth watching an animation as other areas of the NW do well at some stage. Then you have the shadow effect to consider too. 
 

Exhausting!  
 

[iand61]

9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

06z ICON is very much still on for Tuesday. 
 

It shows a separate lighter band of snow Monday night, then a band of snow moving in early Tuesday morning. It does tend to turn to rain for the far south of the region. The front appears to stall in Lancs in the afternoon with some heavy snow by then - Lancs looks like the sweet spot. 
 

GFS should not be ignored however and could well be the final outcome. 

Sorry don’t normally do IMBY but I had to put a like against “stall in Lancs” and “Lancs looks to be the sweet spot”

[Geordiesnow]

Theres no denying the further north in the region the greater the chances and there is still a bit of time for some southern movement but I'm 80% sure for the vast majority in our region its a snow turning to rain event sadly. 

Just need that low to be more squashed down and less of a bowling ball type shape. 

[Joe Bloggs]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Theres no denying the further north in the region the greater the chances and there is still a bit of time for some southern movement but I'm 80% sure for the vast majority in our region its a snow turning to rain event sadly. 

Just need that low to be more squashed down and less of a bowling ball type shape. 

I think that’s a fair assessment and I tend to agree but there is a lot of uncertainty currently and we need more NWP guidance. By Monday morning we’ll know with a fair amount of certainty (but even then not 100%) of how it’ll play out. 
 

I think the fact there is such a broad and vague MetO warning at this early stage says it all. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Sorry don’t normally do IMBY but I had to put a like against “stall in Lancs” and “Lancs looks to be the sweet spot”

IF ICON verifies you’ll get clobbered. 
 

It’s a big if though

[frosty ground]

snowing here nothing on the radar thou

Edited January 30, 2021 by frosty ground

[severe snowstorm]

Less intense echos on radar over here now and yet we now have the heaviest ppn of the morning. Bizarre. Pure rain though, not a hint of sleet.

[WillinGlossop]

24 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Looking at the radar there are some quite hefty showers heading towards the Peaks and eastern Greater Manchester from South Yorkshire so maybe a covering for some if they make it across.

I am probably to far north for these although we are getting snow at the moment from some running up Calderdale and already today I’ve seen more snow than looked possible given last nights and this mornings forecasts.

 

Hills towards snake have disappeared looks to be sticking higher up... but wind must be gusting 50mph+ at times... 1c 

[WillinGlossop]

Moderate snow showers... as Jasmin Harman on A Place In The Sun would say “ “exciting”

[carl1980]

Weather warning for Tuesday updated and moved further north

[Spah1]

Warning corrected North. 

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Moderate snow showers... as Jasmin Harman on A Place In The Sun would say “ “exciting”

Only light snow here although blowing about so difficult to tell really.

Snow blowing about on a strong cold easterly wind has always been my favourite winter conditions and even if we barely get a covering, it still beats the wet sleety crap that spends its time trying to convince the world that it’s actually snow.

Get enough to start forming small drifts against walls and kerbs and the kid in me is back again

[SnowWatcher2]

Few flurries here this morning, nothing exciting... Met now showing few snow symbols for Tue , they are keen.