North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Snow free zone]

6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Yep Manchester will only get light snow if this setup verifies , best to accept that up front. 
 

Merseyside Lancs and Cheshire will do better. 

If it happens you won't be the only ones .... trust me

[Day 10]

GFS needs to back off a bit though.

[Spah1]

 

Only goes out that far but look on the last frame the cold / red coming from the East. Surely it would just pivot over us. I hope it’s cold enough for snow in Chorley. Look like 2 bands. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Spah1

[Geordiesnow]

It is easy to get too drawn into PPN charts but at the end of the day, it's the radar that counts. 

I'm not too fussed where it snows so I'm actually looking forward to seeing how tomorrow's event will go, will there be surprises(in terms of northern extent of any PPN) or will it be a disappointment in respect its not a lying snow event for lower levels which the beeb forecasts seem to be indicating. Then there is potential depending on cloud cover of a freezing cold start to Sunday before  another system comes in, it's interesting to watch as you think a huge mass of PPN heads for the UK and it does upto Wales and then most of the energy seems to head into France. And then you can you got next week's sort of potential, one of those where it looks more wet than white but slight changes could make a huge difference. 

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

GFS needs to back off a bit though.

That model always wants to blast the Atlantic through the block. You would think after all these years that a few adjustments would be made to the model to improve this issue.

[Spah1]

Another thought. If we do get lying snow by Wednesday it could be lying around for weeks with an Easterly wind. 

[Spah1]

 

According to Exeter the BftE starts Thursday. Orange snow warnings right down the East coast. Cool and Sunny in Lancashire. 

[WillinGlossop]

One silver lining this weekend is three dry days Saturday through Monday cold crisp and some sunshine/sunny days

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

That model always wants to blast the Atlantic through the block. You would think after all these years that a few adjustments would be made to the model to improve this issue.

Yeah mate, same every time.

At the minute we have ICON about where we want it & GFS way north at roughly day 4, so plenty of runs to go yet.

IF and it's a big IF we get to Sunday's 12z's and it's still showing snow across us then we should start to get excited, it 'could' be a very good event this one whoever gets it.

The one interesting thing which some have already pointed out, is the fact that this is probably the earliest the Met have gone with a fairly wide scale snow warning this Winter.

[Joe Bloggs]

We have heavy snow symbols here for Tuesday now so UKV must be good. A 14mph ESE’ly though  

[Wardlegacy]

21 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Yep Manchester will only get light snow if this setup verifies , best to accept that up front. 
 

Merseyside Lancs and Cheshire will do better. 

Yep I find it fascinating. Not always the case but often. My dad remembered working on a market garden in 1947 in Alderley Edge, it snowed every day and East Cheshire was almost cut off but they had to take flowers to the Manchester Markets and Manchester rarely had more than a couple of inches once they got there in an American jeep. 

[severe snowstorm]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

We have heavy snow symbols here for Tuesday now so UKV must be good. A 14mph ESE’ly though  

Interesting that, because I was sure the high res models do factor in the shadow effect? 

[Spah1]

This from tonights GFS is why I hate Easterlies. 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Interesting that, because I was sure the high res models do factor in the shadow effect? 

The high res models will pick up on it within 48 hours of the event usually when resolution is higher . In 2013 I’d get heavy snow symbols and then they’d switch to light and then they’d disappear altogether. 

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a physicist and my knowledge is extremely limited on this but I still have the scars from 2013.

For Merseyside and Cheshire it’s game on. Be wary if you’re in G Man would be my advice - even if the precipitation charts show snow at this range. 

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Spah1 said:

This from tonights GFS is why I hate Easterlies. 

I wouldn’t worry about those charts for convective showers , fairly useless. As a general rule though east of the M6 is most favoured in that setup. 

[Snow free zone]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

We have heavy snow symbols here for Tuesday now so UKV must be good. A 14mph ESE’ly though  

Sleet symbols Tuesday here, and only a 50% chance at that. E/SE wind direction - thats what will kill the ppn for here if it gets this far. 

All irrelevant this far out anyway. See what it says Tuesday morning. 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The high res models will pick up on it within 48 hours of the event usually when resolution is higher . In 2013 I’d get heavy snow symbols and then they’d switch to light and then they’d disappear altogether. 

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a physicist and my knowledge is extremely limited on this but I still have the scars from 2013.

For Merseyside and Cheshire it’s game on. Be wary if you’re in G Man would be my advice - even if the precipitation charts show snow at this range. 

Let's hope we get some upgrades for once, can't remember the last time we were all talking about snow upgrades.

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Let's hope we get some upgrades for once, can't remember the last time we were all talking about snow upgrades.

No shadow effect for you.   

Your patch did loads better than here in 2013. 

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The high res models will pick up on it within 48 hours of the event usually when resolution is higher . In 2013 I’d get heavy snow symbols and then they’d switch to light and then they’d disappear altogether. 

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a physicist and my knowledge is extremely limited on this but I still have the scars from 2013.

For Merseyside and Cheshire it’s game on. Be wary if you’re in G Man would be my advice - even if the precipitation charts show snow at this range. 

Ditto, re: 2013. Painful experience! It was incredibly windy as I recall, so this would have exacerbated the shadow effect during that event. Although I no longer have to dread the SE flow where I live now, I have to contend with other factors, including closer proximity to coast and being a bit lower lying so swings and roundabouts really.

 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Ditto, re: 2013. Painful experience! It was incredibly windy as I recall, so this would have exacerbated the shadow effect during that event. Although I no longer have to dread the SE flow where I live now, I have to contend with other factors, including closer proximity to coast and being a bit lower lying so swings and roundabouts really.

 

Just wellies and brollies here from all directions 99% of the time, so I hope Tuesday is right.

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Ditto, re: 2013. Painful experience! It was incredibly windy as I recall, so this would have exacerbated the shadow effect during that event. Although I no longer have to dread the SE flow where I live now, I have to contend with other factors, including closer proximity to coast and being a bit lower lying so swings and roundabouts really.

 

Low heights and light winds mean there’s far less to worry about.

We’ll see. staying open minded for now! 

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, Dexter said:

Liverpool Airport TAF includes possibility of snow between 07:00 and 12:00 tomorrow.   

Maybe this is why the TAF saying possible snow.

WRF

A very late move north.

Waiting on the rest to update.

Another 20 mile shove could see Merseyside/Cheshire seeing some light snow.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Day 10

[dodge]

Well at least its looking a lot more interesting in terms of snowy prospects going into next week.  I fear the GMcr dome/shield will come down over our parts to buffer the heavy snow away to our east, north , west and south but we can only hope.  Charts are looking promising.

[Had Worse]

No point worrying, the proof will be the window and radar.

[Cheshire Freeze]

46 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The high res models will pick up on it within 48 hours of the event usually when resolution is higher . In 2013 I’d get heavy snow symbols and then they’d switch to light and then they’d disappear altogether. 

Don’t get me wrong I’m not a physicist and my knowledge is extremely limited on this but I still have the scars from 2013.

For Merseyside and Cheshire it’s game on. Be wary if you’re in G Man would be my advice - even if the precipitation charts show snow at this range. 

The shadow even happens here, it did in 2013.

Drizzly snow that didn't stick because it was so light and fine. You'd think the peaks were the Himalayas.

Funnily enough, it barely ever fails to lash it down with rain.

Edited January 29, 2021 by CreweCold