North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Worth looking at the matrix for this latest warning... 

Relatively  high impact but not very likely.

 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Still hanging in there buddy 

C.S

Self Portrait 

[A Face like Thunder]

Another nice dry mild day here in the south of the region. But will it last I wonder?

[damianslaw]

Very vague Met Office warning for early next week. The northern boundary too close to comfort for me, would be happier if it moved into s Scotland, less chance of corrections southward... we always seem to be close to all boundaries, never in the middle!

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Might be just me but my eyes are now turning to the potential for convection from the east. I know not everyone’s cup of tea but if the 06z GFS verifies then I think that could be our next bit of potential.

We’d get showers up the M62 corridor from this. 

Perfect for my location next to J21

[SnowWatcher2]

Hopefully out of these opportunities we will get at least 1 

<< Tues// Yes please!

 << Snow Acc by Thurs(apparently) ha

 

< Wed// Nice!

<< 8th Feb (keep it up)

....

Edited January 29, 2021 by SnowWatcher2

[Spah1]

17 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Icon Tuesday. 

Latest Icon. We joked yesterday about it ending up in Cornwall but that is a fair shift already. 

[damianslaw]

Forcing and alignment is different for next week than this weekend more positively aligned so it should in theory not correct south, issue might be how far east it moves.

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Forcing and alignment is different for next week than this weekend more positively aligned so it should in theory not correct south, issue might be how far east it moves.

And how cold?

[Spah1]

Feels like they have gone early with the warnings

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Feels like they have gone early with the warnings

Yes agree, in recent weeks warnings have appeared only 24 hrs before an event, 3 days is quite far ahead. Not sure whether to take this as a sign they are more confident of it happening, and whether they think there could be an upgrade, the extra time allowing them to so this on enough time.

Also perhaps being earlier in the week, they think it could have greater impacts, more activity, people on the move. 

It could equally just be them being very over cautious and give people a heads up when there attention is turning to the weekend, so they are not caught out first thing Monday.. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, griff74 said:

GFS excitement in the MOD thread, again.

Easterly by any chance?

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Feels like they have gone early with the warnings

The models or their model must be showing a strong snow signal. That tweet by Matt Hugo that has been posted is the ECM ensembles, so there must be a hell of a lot of  ECM ensembles going for snow. 

However as we have seen over the last couple of days things can change, so this alone begs the question why put such warnings out now? 

[iand61]

33 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Perfect for my location next to J21

Exit will probably be closed for barrier repairs

[The Northern Ramper]

41 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Exit will probably be closed for barrier repairs

During the BFTE 2018 the Tuesday it took me 90 minutes to get to Littleborough. On the Thursday the roads all around me were undrivable and they closed the motorway. I woke up on the Friday at 6 for work and it was eerily quiet. I looked down the road and it was still backed up from the night before, no work again for me.

I think it was about 36 hours in total before things got back to normal.

A repeat? Yes most definitely

[Frosty the Snowman]

Is the weekend a right off now then, with everybody looking at Tuesday? 

[iand61]

8 minutes ago, Ramp said:

During the BFTE 2018 the Tuesday it took me 90 minutes to get to Littleborough. On the Thursday the roads all around me were undrivable and they closed the motorway. I woke up on the Friday at 6 for work and it was eerily quiet. I looked down the road and it was still backed up from the night before, no work again for me.

I think it was about 36 hours in total before things got back to normal.

A repeat? Yes most definitely

Yeah I remember that happening.

pretty sure a gust of something like 90 mph was recorded on Rakewood Viaduct, not bad from an easterly.

a mate of mine lives in a pretty exposed place higher up the hill from me and part of his gable end blew down but blizzard conditions stopped him doing anything with it for 3 days.

the snow wasn’t as bad as the March 2013 BFTE but the cold and wind were something else.

[Spah1]

6 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Is the weekend a right off now then, with everybody looking at Tuesday? 

Yes

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Is the weekend a right off now then, with everybody looking at Tuesday? 

Yes looking that way, unless the fronts suddenly change projected course, either way any low level snow looks a transient affair, in my view.

Long term prospects based on current models suggest much more conducive conditions for low level snow to all should synoptics deliver, much less marginal conditions. By long term I mean from about a weeks time, not early new week when marginality still very much in evidence.

Edited January 29, 2021 by damianslaw

[Day 10]

Trying hard not to get sucked in lol!

The ICON is just bloody superb for large parts of the North West, stalling heavy snow all of Tuesday, still going on Wednesday!!!

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Day 10

[damianslaw]

Post above from a imby perspective could do with the band being about 50 miles further north.. I'd be much less nervous if it was, we look to be the edge of any heavy stuff. Alas let's not carried away with precipitation charts for 96 hrs ahead.

[Joe Snow]

13 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Trying hard not to get sucked in lol!

The ICON is just bloody superb for large parts of the North West, stalling heavy snow all of Tuesday, still going on Wednesday!!!

 

 

Looks great but not getting sucked in again!  Met Office are on board with the warnings - don’t know whether that’s a good thing or not considering their pretty poor performance warning wise this Winter. 

[The Northern Ramper]

31 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Yeah I remember that happening.

pretty sure a gust of something like 90 mph was recorded on Rakewood Viaduct, not bad from an easterly.

a mate of mine lives in a pretty exposed place higher up the hill from me and part of his gable end blew down but blizzard conditions stopped him doing anything with it for 3 days.

the snow wasn’t as bad as the March 2013 BFTE but the cold and wind were something else.

I lived in the Calderbrook Littleborough in 2013, we were cut off on that Friday/Saturday. 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

I lived in the Calderbrook Littleborough in 2013, we were cut off on that Friday/Saturday. 

Yeah the best (worst depending on your perception) blizzard here since 1979.

fine powdery snow that got through the smallest of gaps and drifted everywhere.

[Snow free zone]

Refusing to get drawn into this. I honestly cannot see the ppn reaching here, or if it does it will not be cold enough for snow. The front isn't aligned right for me. We need to see a more n/s alignment not a nw/se one. Too far out anyway for any excitement yet.