North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, Backtrack said:

I’d say Cardiff was in a fairly decent spot! I recall a couple of red warnings for your area in the past 5 years or so. Decent little place for a proper mixed bag 

I think we had one back in 2018 that was some blizzard! Before that I remember 2010 being amazing too from a streamer that wasn't even forecast and we ended up with around 12 inches of snow. First picture is from 2018 and the second is from 2010.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jayfromcardiff

[Had Worse]

Well its nice to have an upbeat mood on the Mod thread... any one would think it might be odds on to snow down sarf.

[Had Worse]

20 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Big pivot over Ireland... will concentrate circulation over south midlands... not coming up our way... hope friends and family in Somerset and Kent get a bit of snow

Im not so sure.

The Pivot is approx 60-70 miles further North than modelled and I think we will get an hour or two of moderate to light snow.

[raul_sbd]

8 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Latest BBC forecast 2228hrs is superb for much of our region.

Unfortunately not for our region

[Downpour]

1 minute ago, raul_sbd said:

Unfortunately not for our region

Sorry wrong thread!

[carl1980]

Our region

[Geordiesnow]

If I was in Merseyside and Cheshire, looking at the radar and current runs, I would be getting a little more interested. The PPN is further east at 11 than the models are indicating so could the pivot happen a bit further north as a result? Is that PPN ahead of the trough an anaprop or real? How will that develop or will it fizzle out so perhaps some interest. 

We seen forecasts not fully going to plan before so why not again? Could be a late night for some. 

[Chris.R]

WRF 18Z still has the precip making Merseyside but earlier around 11 am. About 4–5 hours.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Chris.R

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

If I was in Merseyside and Cheshire, looking at the radar and current runs, I would be getting a little more interested. The PPN is further east at 11 than the models are indicating so could the pivot happen a bit further north as a result? Is that PPN ahead of the trough an anaprop or real? How will that develop or will it fizzle out so perhaps some interest. 

We seen forecasts not fully going to plan before so why not again? Could be a late night for some. 

i'm looking at Sat 24, i might be wrong but it looks like it will get here (just) maybe as far as Bury then slip South.

[Frosty the Snowman]

27 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Unfortunately not for our region

I spent a good few minutes looking at going 'but that's the midlands.... 

[Had Worse]

Just now, Frosty the Snowman said:

I spent a good few minutes looking at going 'but that's the midlands.... 

You mean jumping in the car for a snow chase and a 100 mile round trip to Maccy 'D's?

[Wardlegacy]

Looks  to me like it could reach up to about Knutsford the way it is moving and then sink. 

[More Runs Needed]

7 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

Looks  to me like it could reach up to about Knutsford the way it is moving and then sink. 

That would be torture, I'd rather it miss us by 100 miles

Edited January 23, 2021 by Dkeane3

[damianslaw]

Frontal/trough feature set to move through tomorrow evening and night, may not have much left on it, but could give another light cover again..

Looking to the new week, hardly a warm up, maxes of 6-7 degrees for here then colder again, further north east the mild air not really making it.

Tuesday looking a cold raw bleak day, low single digits Monday and Tuesday.

Edited January 23, 2021 by damianslaw

[Cheshire Freeze]

Knutsford will do me.

Then again I'm dubious as to whether it gets into Cheshire at all.

[Andypvfc]

15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

WRF 18Z still has the precip making Merseyside but earlier around 11 am. About 4–5 hours.

I'm just on the Cheshire / Staffs Border so could be interesting 

[Wardlegacy]

4 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

That would be torture, I'd rather it miss us by 100 miles

I do remember in maybe 1985/6 having a foot of snow at school and just a few flakes in the wind at home 6 miles away with a channel low moving up. 

[Geordiesnow]

23 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

WRF 18Z still has the precip making Merseyside but earlier around 11 am. About 4–5 hours.

Might even be earlier than that given how the models have seemingly underestimated its speed of heading eastwards so who knows how that may affect things going forwards. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

I know this has been a nice winter, and we've had some decent snow events. 

 

But...

 

Every event this winter has been extremely showery in nature, even the ones that have been a heavy total fall, don't we've had a full 24 hour period of snow falling from the sky constantly at a heavy intensity, given how often rain manages to do that round here throughout the rest of the year, is it being greedy to just want one event like that before winters out - a solid 24-72 hours of falling heavy snow. Not shower, thaw, shower, or a big dumping in an hour or two of a few cms, a few days thawing then a top - just a constant stream of snow for days on end... 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Frosty the Snowman

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

I know this has been a nice winter, and we've had some decent snow events. 

 

But...

 

Every event this winter has been extremely showery in nature, even the ones that have been a heavy total fall, don't we've had a full 24 hour period of snow falling from the sky constantly at a heavy intensity, given how often rain manages to do that round here throughout the rest of the year, is it being greedy to just want one event like that before winters out - a solid 24-72 hours of falling heavy snow. Not shower, thaw, shower, or a big dumping in an hour or two of a few cms, a few days thawing then a top - just a constant stream of snow for days on end... 

Thats most peoples dreams but things have to be perfect for that to happen and it doesnt come around all that often (unless your in Scotland)

[Had Worse]

Holyhead Webcam

WWW.CAMSECURE.CO.UK

---

Live webcam from Holyhead in North Wales UK situated at the Holyhead Sailing Club. On a stormy day you can see the waves crashing into the breakwater as the storms come in from the Irish Sea.

 

Looks like some flakes of snow at Holyhead.

[Geordiesnow]

The problem I suspect might happen is there be PPN showing on the radar but none actually falling which would sum things up really. 

[Backtrack]

That bit of energy in the sea has created cloud. It’s scuppered the temps and we are now slightly above freezing. 
 

It might actually reach here. 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Backtrack said:

That bit of energy in the sea has created cloud. It’s scuppered the temps and we are now slightly above freezing. 
 

It might actually reach here. 

(high)Cloud has been streaming into the region all evening, to be honest, it may not be all that bad of a thing the temperature is not too low as that increases the chance of PPN reaching the ground? 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Front has our name on it. Can’t see why not.