North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[chicken soup]

1 hour ago, Slidergate '17 said:

One thing I do fear about Sunday is that front having a more southerly track than some models show, could still miss the NW completely..

Yes.. this is my fear aswell.. These type of systems always seem to go south the closer we get and end up missing us.

[Day 10]

As well as Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon looks an upgrade too.

[More Runs Needed]

Met Office doesn't seem interested in any snow for our region for Sunday/Sunday night, remaining dry

[Chris.R]

This is really reminded me a lot of 30th January 2019 but with greater longevity and slightly colder air. It’s even got the southerly tracking low the day after as well like now but on that occasion it missed us to the south so could do again.

[Geordiesnow]

50 minutes ago, russwirral said:

its very rare in Wirral when we get a North westerly that we actually see snow.  its most likely going to be Graupal.  Saying that - usually if a beefier shower turns up - we might be in look as the air modifys during the shower.  

Alot of people talk of how lucky we are to be in the north west with its north west and moisture laden winds in the winter.. but often they are a curse that offers nothing more than icey windows on the car and icy roads.  Chester and further in land usually get the heavy snow we are expect.

 

Fingers crossed for something a bit different this time, but its doubtful.  I think snow from a northwesterly is perhaps a 1 in 15 occurances event in my experience.

From my 5 years experience of living down here, I have not had lying snow from a convective NW'ly flow and snow tends to get recorded if we have uppers of - 7 or below. 

Also the convection of the Irish Sea vs the North Sea is chalk and cheese, Irish sea tends to be more disorganised in shower distribution(I like to call them popcorn showers as they pop around all the place and are quite small) and actually showers seem to intensify more as they head further inland, the North Sea has big beefy showers heading straight in and tend to be alot more organised. 

Even looking at the models, it does not suggest there will be widespread shower activity but we shall see what the radar will produce. 

[Chris.R]

Here’s a trip down memory lane.

should be a bit better than this provided we get the precip.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Chris.R

[SnowThunder]

Was this little streamer predicted ? Keep getting intermittent showers with some hail here on the coast

Edited January 21, 2021 by SnowThunder

[pip22]

My location has snow from 19.00 tommorow until 18.00 Sat on the Met Office website.

[raul_sbd]

14 minutes ago, pip22 said:

My location has snow from 19.00 tommorow until 18.00 Sat on the Met Office website.

I think @Chris.R is going to be again spot on with his predictions for tomorrow / wknd.. metoffice already as changed to sleet-snow from tomorrow eve here in Sale area.. can you do lotto numbers @Chris.R?

[Dan B]

16 minutes ago, pip22 said:

My location has snow from 19.00 tommorow until 18.00 Sat on the Met Office website.

 

Same, and looks to be more chance early hours Saturday

 

It'll be interesting to see what it brings  

[russwirral]

34 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

From my 5 years experience of living down here, I have not had lying snow from a convective NW'ly flow and snow tends to get recorded if we have uppers of - 7 or below. 

Also the convection of the Irish Sea vs the North Sea is chalk and cheese, Irish sea tends to be more disorganised in shower distribution(I like to call them popcorn showers as they pop around all the place and are quite small) and actually showers seem to intensify more as they head further inland, the North Sea has big beefy showers heading straight in and tend to be alot more organised. 

Even looking at the models, it does not suggest there will be widespread shower activity but we shall see what the radar will produce. 

This 

Shared album - russell jacques - Google Photos

PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL

was the last time I saw proper snow from a northwesterly Dec 2017.

 

Before that was a good maybe 6 yrs?, maybe longer, I really cant recall anything from a NWerly

wa

[Day 10]

34 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Here’s a trip down memory lane.

should be a bit better than this provided we get the precip.

 

 

Saturday - BANK!

[itsnowjoke]

Feeling cold out just popped to the shop for essentials 

[itsnowjoke]

All Snow gone

[Had Worse]

My trusty trampoline has about an inch and a half, was 3 and a half last night.

[Chris.R]

Convection should intensify this evening with a peak around 23:00.

[raul_sbd]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Convection should intensify this evening with a peak around 23:00.

Another surprise tonight? 

[Chris.R]

It’s 2.8°C currently here, that’s about 1.5° below what was expected.

5.1°C at Crosby.

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Another surprise tonight? 

 

3 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Another surprise tonight? 

I think it’s a bit too early for you probably just sleet and ice pellets except above 200 m tonight. Maybe they’ll be no showers at all of course convection is a fickle beast.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

NW'lys are often dry here as we are sheltered by SW Scotland, the very south west of cumbria sometimes get clipped but the vast majority of the showers hit south of say Blackpool. We had a very cold NW'ly in 2009 i think which delivered 5cm in about 2 hours here and that was our lot whilst a streamer set up further south and the likes of blackpool and merseyside got 10-20cm i think. The south of the region is in a much more favourable position from a NW'ly than cumbria.

[Joe Bloggs]

12z EURO4 snow accumulation. This is Saturday evening.

Quite a strong snow signal for many parts of the region , especially Manchester. Most of this seems to fall Friday night into early Saturday.

Very interesting - I think this model is fairly good at picking up shower and streamer potential. 

[Joe Bloggs]

If we do get a streamer tomorrow night , whilst they are amazing to experience if you’re under them, they can be soooo frustrating if you’re not well placed. All depends on the wind direction - a NW’ly will push it further south towards Cheshire, a SW’ly will push it further north towards Lancs. I’d like a perfect westerly/WNW’ly vector please.  

I’ll leave that one to the experts. 

[Geordiesnow]

39 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

NW'lys are often dry here as we are sheltered by SW Scotland, the very south west of cumbria sometimes get clipped but the vast majority of the showers hit south of say Blackpool. We had a very cold NW'ly in 2009 i think which delivered 5cm in about 2 hours here and that was our lot whilst a streamer set up further south and the likes of blackpool and merseyside got 10-20cm i think. The south of the region is in a much more favourable position from a NW'ly than cumbria.

Winds are forecast to switch more westerly and even WSW'ly eventually when the coldest air arrives which seems to favour more our parts of the region. Still will be a tall order for us but we shall see especially if something more organised does arrive on Sunday.

[Mark_p]

Big hail under that streamer. I love a good hail storm. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

 

Make the most of any snow you do get - positively tropical next Saturday.