North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[griff74]

Well all that snow last night was lovely, a proper winter wonderland. Not surprised it's mostly gone today, but at least the temps are much more seasonal for it. River Irwell levels have dropped back in to the green zone at my nearest sensor as well - 

River Irwell at Manchester Racecourse

Height0.6235.6682.728

 

Current River Level:  2.728m, falling

[SnowWatcher2]

Just having a quick ganders at the current outlook for this weekend, looks like Sunday could be interesting.

< ICON-EU

< ECM

< GDPS

< GFS

Edited January 21, 2021 by SnowWatcher2

[Mucka]

There was no wind here at all last night.

Heavy snow started about 8;30 PM ended about 11 PM got a couple of centimeters or more accumulation despite hours of rain before.

Melted pretty quick though as not that cold overnight.

[cheshire snow]

Something quite nice about the sun reflecting of the snow and one from the Airport.

Now I need sleep.

C.S

[Dan B]

3ºC here and blowing a hoolie currently

 

We had some heavy & hard hail showers overnight and then this winds just picked up

 

No signs of wintry weather at all

[Iceaxecrampon]

Out at sea this morning.

Horizontal Rain Hail and Sleet squall from across the field - still ongoing.

Gnarly.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Iceaxecrampon

[SnowWatcher2]

light sleet here now

[A Face like Thunder]

8 hours ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Just noticed the streamer over the Cheshire gap, presumably once the main precip fully clears off to the east/north we could get one slightly north (closer to IoM) to give some more snowfall overnight/during tomorrow? 

 

Is it falling as snow in Cheshire etc? 

Yes, it certainly snowed unexpectedly and heavily here in Crewe last night and settled. However, this morning was not as icy first thing as I thought it might be and sun is now out, so (hopefully) an altogether better day in prospect. 

[griff74]

12 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

light sleet here now

Light rain here, but looking at the radar it looks like it is about to turn more wintery soon (I hope!).

[SnowWatcher2]

Just now, griff74 said:

Light rain here, but looking at the radar it looks like it is about to turn more wintery soon (I hope!).

Its turned back to rain again for me now  

< We're just out of range - Dew point rising slightly, not good. 

[SouthYorks]

10 hours ago, Joe Snow said:

Whilst rain & flooding has been the major concern today and snow melt tomorrow will exacerbate this I think questions need to be asked as to why there wasn’t at least a Met Office Yellow warning for snow this evening as whilst we are the NW 5-10cm of snow is a lot of snow for low lying NW England and the one line today in a Amber rain warning gave the impression to Joe public of a 1-4cm high ground only event. If we were London and the SE we would have got an Amber Warning the works. 

It was exactly the same for us last Thursday in South Yorkshire!  

It snowed for the best part of 10 hours in Barnsley and we had a yellow warning that just about covered our area but it stated snow mainly over high ground.  As a consequence schools all opened but then by mid-morning they had to say they were closing after about 2 hours of snow.  Roads were so bad our daughter (a primary teacher) had to walk home taking some of the children on the way, as no one could either get to or away from the school in cars!  Our sons girlfriend, a teaching assistant in a different school, had to walk 10 miles to get home after abandoning her car part way.

 A few days later there was an Amber warning for London and the South East, yet come the event most areas barely got a covering.   

The Meto really need to look closely at their performance over these events in the North, as frankly they have been very poor.

[SnowWatcher2]

Currently raining heavy with big flakes mixed in. temp 2.4C.

[alr1970]

The Mersey is dropping now, the sluice into Sale Waterpark basin is now closed.

There's a convenient line on the riverbank showing how high it got last night.

Edited January 21, 2021 by alr1970

[Chris.R]

morning guys.

Was woken up by heavy rain and graupel showers last night as expected. There was some lightning nearby but not close enough to hear thunder.

Will find my post from yesterday about today and tomorrow to remind people and I will post my thoughts about this weekend later. 

[alr1970]

MEN reports that the Mersey was 2cm below overtopping. If true I'd say the snow saved us from that by delaying the injection of that water into the river.

[Chris.R]

Re-posting below what I said yesterday. Not much has changed so forecast is still valid. Would like to talk about possible peaks of convection in a minute.

 

Thursday/Friday.

Above 200 m.

Graupel and sleet showers Thursday am. 

Wet snow showers and sleet showers mix Thursday pm.no accumulations.

Snow and graupel showers with possible lightning Thursday night. Small accumulations possible (temporary)

wet snow and graupel showers with possible lightning. Friday am. No or trace accumulations.

Snow/graupel showers Friday pm. with possible lightning, small accumulation possible.

Snow showers Friday night, moderate accumulations possible.

 

50–200 m and East of M6.

Graupel, sleet and ice pellet showers Thursday am.

rain, sleet and graupel showers Thursday pm.

sleet, graupel and wet snow showers with possible lightning Thursday night. Small accumulations possible (temporary) especially early.

rain, sleet, graupel and wet snow showers with possible lightning  Friday am, no accumulations.

sleet, ice pellets and wet snow showers with possible lightning Friday pm., small accumulations possible (temporary).

Snow and ice pellet showers Friday night. Small-moderate accumulations possible, especially late.

 

below 50 m and West of M6 to coast.

rain, sleet, and graupel showers with possible lightning Thursday am.

rain and graupel showers Thursday pm.

rain, sleet and graupel showers with possible lightning Thursday night.

rain, sleet and graupel showers with possible lightning Friday am.

sleet, and wet snow showers with possible lightning Friday pm., (no snow  showers immediate coast). small accumulations possible (temporary).

ice pellets, wet snow and snow showers Friday night (especially late). Small accumulations possible (especially late).

[shadowfax]

Thick snow still lying on grass but being bombarded by rain , sleet then back to snow. What a shame. 

[Chris.R]

Over the next few days convection activity will probably wax and wane as the 500 MB temperature rises and falls somewhat whilst remaining on a overall downwards trend.

The first peak of convection was this morning and we saw heavy showers develop. The second peak looks to be this afternoon so expect more heavy showers. The next  looks like tomorrow morning near midday and the following one around Saturday morning midday but by then the 500 MB temperature has dropped to  -39°C so really anything could happen at that point.

The risk of lightning will be at its greatest during peaks of convection and with t500‘s down to near -40°C would expect lightning to be fairly widespread later Saturday unless there is some inhibiting mechanism.

Approaching Fronts late Saturday night may kill convection for a time.

500–1000 MB thicknesses which give a good idea of the airmass and airmass changes are on a downward trend from this afternoon after rising slightly this morning having reached a trough in the early hours coinciding with that peak in convection.they will bottom out at about 516 dam (that’s 5160 m) on Saturday afternoon.

T850’s which show the temperature of the atmosphere at 1100 m today and 1200 m tomorrow/Saturday remain around -4 – -5 until tomorrow afternoon when they take a sharp nosedive towards -8 by Saturday morning.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Chris.R

[PennineMark]

Heavy sleet, rain and some wet snow here. Shame conditions are not a little bit more favourable. Altitude could help today but the moors to the north are shrouded in cloud so can't comment. Hopefully less marginal by this time tomorrow.

[Day 10]

For the long suffering people of Wirral & parts of Merseyside, Early Saturday morning is looking our best chance yet for proper snow showers and even the Met agree! For the first time this season we have snow symbols, I take note when it does that. Regardless of what others may think they have been spot on here this Winter. The closest we have come is very very wet non sticking snow twice, this time we may get actual snow showers perfect timing too. Between about Friday 11pm to Saturday 9am, a bloody covering would do just to enjoy it.

EDIT:

Trough feature for Sat

Edited January 21, 2021 by Day 10

[Frost HoIIow]

Snow melting now round here with the temp and dew point going above freezing. Probably be all gone by tonight. Very blustery out there at the moment.

[Backtrack]

All traces of snow have gone this morning. Thankfully I made the absolute most of it whilst I could. What an epic event. Would’ve liked it to stick around for a day or two. But I got plenty of pics and videos to the heaviest snow I’ve possibly ever seen. 

[A Face like Thunder]

1 hour ago, SouthYorks said:

It was exactly the same for us last Thursday in South Yorkshire!  

It snowed for the best part of 10 hours in Barnsley and we had a yellow warning that just about covered our area but it stated snow mainly over high ground.  As a consequence schools all opened but then by mid-morning they had to say they were closing after about 2 hours of snow.  Roads were so bad our daughter (a primary teacher) had to walk home taking some of the children on the way, as no one could either get to or away from the school in cars!  Our sons girlfriend, a teaching assistant in a different school, had to walk 10 miles to get home after abandoning her car part way.

 A few days later there was an Amber warning for London and the South East, yet come the event most areas barely got a covering.   

The Meto really need to look closely at their performance over these events in the North, as frankly they have been very poor.

I cannot comment on the situation in Barnsley and certainly not in London & the South East. However, so far as the North West is concerned, I have to say that the Meto seemed to have got it spot on with their amber and yellow weather warnings. I also think that the oft-criticised Environment Agency and local councils deserve some praise for their reaction to yesterday''s events in the NW. OK, the rain was a bit later than predicted and the snow was totally unexpected in some places, but the authorities do seem to have been prepared. My sympathies go to those who had to evacuate their homes, particularly in this nightmare pandemic situation, and I hope you will not be too long away from your homes. 

[Chris.R]

Will be all snow at the coast from midnight Saturday DP’s are below freezing throughout. May have trouble settling Saturday midday but should be alright on  the night.

[Chris.R]

Wow Sunday is a snow day according to GFS. Would be very good indeed. WRF just goes out to 6 am Sunday so will have to wait till this evening. Looks like we’re in for a very snowy weekend.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Chris.R