North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

Sunday AM best bet for cold   -  Ambers still the same for rain  - always notice any upgrades are nowcasting for the METO 

[Had Worse]

WRF for Glossop

Edited January 19, 2021 by Had Worse

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

WRF for Glossop

It’s looking epic for you. 1 minute it will be 7° with heavy rain next minute it will be 0° with heavy snow. WRF isn’t usually wrong much at this range.

[alr1970]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Putting aside the snow possibilities keep a watch for Meto warnings later would not be surprised to see a red warning for somewhere in the region.

C.S

I think that's unlikely, we have the Environment Agency to issue flood warnings when it gets bad. Those are better focussed on the area at risk. There's no agency with overlapping responsibility for warnings about other extreme weather types in the same way as there is for rain (except perhaps health warnings for heat, but the MetO don't issue yellows for that).

[Thunder Snow]

Rain steady, by the looks of the garden its rained all night

[jam2010]

Is the band more north or is it just me? only on my first brew.

stopped here in Manchester (Amber warning) 

[More Runs Needed]

18 minutes ago, jam2010 said:

Is the band more north or is it just me? only on my first brew.

stopped here in Manchester (Amber warning) 

I thought that too, Amber is mostly south of where the rain is now

[cheshire snow]

Midnight Wednesday from the ECM hi Res

C.S

[Alexis]

4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Midnight Wednesday from the ECM hi Res

C.S

If that is wrong at this close range it needs binning.

[Rain Lady]

It's thumping down.  Rain came in overnight.  Picked up 28.1 mm from the gauge at am.  Steady and mostly heavy since then.

Total for month so far 137.4 mm.

 

[Rain Lady]

Just now, Rain Lady said:

It's thumping down.  Rain came in overnight.  Picked up 28.1 mm from the gauge at am.  Steady and mostly heavy since then.

Total for month so far 137.4 mm.

 

28.1 mm picked up from gauge at 9am

 

[Had Worse]

18 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Midnight Wednesday from the ECM hi Res

C.S

1" per hour maybe less. Take it with a pinch of salt and it will disappear

[Thunder Snow]

Rain starting to get heavy

[Iceaxecrampon]

17 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Rain starting to get heavy

Looks like there's plenty more in the tank.

[Had Worse]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

It’s looking epic for you. 1 minute it will be 7° with heavy rain next minute it will be 0° with heavy snow. WRF isn’t usually wrong much at this range.

Just noticed that the dewpoints are only negative  for half of Thursday so am i right in thinking that late Thursday and into Friday would be snow but not settling apart except in heavier showers? 

[Chris.R]

Just now, Had Worse said:

Just noticed that the dewpoints are only negative  for half of Thursday so am i right in thinking that late Thursday and into Friday would be snow but not settling apart except in heavier showers? 

More or less. I reckon snow settling at night but not in the day. should have snow cover constantly from Friday afternoon.

BTW Wednesday night is Delayed a few hours from what I said yesterday starting about 9 pm now.

[jam2010]

Nothing of note yet! 

[raul_sbd]

9 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

More or less. I reckon snow settling at night but not in the day. should have snow cover constantly from Friday afternoon.

BTW Wednesday night is Delayed a few hours from what I said yesterday starting about 9 pm now.

Cracking WRF info @Chris.R nice to have contacts like you..

[Thunder Snow]

20 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Looks like there's plenty more in the tank.

Hoping Cumbria miss the majority 

[Had Worse]

Where you see Glossop, put your location in. Might be the closest town to you as Hadfield (in my case) isnt recognised.

 If you right click, you should see translate, click that and it should give englisg menu's. 

[damianslaw]

Rainfall amounts look just as high over Lake District as South Pennines yet just a yellow warning for here. I suspect other factors have come into play why not in amber area, less impact due to less population, no major centres here and also suspect river levels and ground not quite as high or saturated compared to S Pennines and Yorkshire Dale's. We didn't receive the same level of snow last week, though suspect most of it should have melted by now over Pennines. 

Still expecting some impacts here, localised flooding but hopefully nothing too severe.

Attention then turns to overnight Wednesday into Thursday may see some back edge snow, most probably very wet and temporary at lower levels but the fells should've covered white again.

Latter part of the week looking cold and wintry, high chance of low level snow where any showers band together or troughs form.

Lots going on!

[Iceaxecrampon]

30 minutes ago, jam2010 said:

Nothing of note yet! 

Main area of concern looks like Eden  - Cumbria and Northumberland  - Borders area.

Don't worry - yours is incoming from Anglesey now.

[Rain Lady]

Very heavy rain this morning, squally more recently as strong gusty wind has picked up.

Looking southwards towards S Lancs and Cheshire, the sky looks a lighter grey, 

Radar images are interesting shapes  -- is that Christoph's eye approaching?

 

 

1 hour ago, Rain Lady said:

It's thumping down.  Rain came in overnight.  Picked up 28.1 mm from the gauge at am.  Steady and mostly heavy since then.

Total for month so far 137.4 mm.

 

28.1 mm picked up from gauge at 9am

 

[jam2010]

11 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Main area of concern looks like Eden  - Cumbria and Northumberland  - Borders area.

Don't worry - yours is incoming from Anglesey now.

Wonderfull news (joke)

[I Cumbria Marra I]

The river is already very high here so can see there being flooding unfortunately looking at the forecast, should be in an amber warning really.